E-Cig's Risk To Big Tobacco Stocks And Bonds?

Market expert Lee Munson of Portfolio Wealth Advisors is asked to discuss why we care about E-cig's.

 

Transcript of video follows:
Basically, if you look at the way a lot of these bonds were structured, they anticipated an average decline in cigarette usage of about 3% a year. suddenly, with e-cigarettes, we've gone above that. So, it's more of a decline even in government borrowing form.

But you're saying, do not help big tobacco out. You've actually made a lot of money in not counting big tobacco out, right?

Yeah, if you look at the last, what was the best performing stock from last half of last century? That was Philip Morris, and the reason why is it's always a value stock, always being beaten up. What we're concerned about today is big tobacco is going to Eastman Kodak themselves. Meaning, Eastman Kodak was in denial of new technology. I wouldn't count the bonds out, and also from the stock position, this is the time where you make your money, where there's a lot of uncertainty, there's value out there, and you buy it before we have confirmation that big tobacco figured out how to get their hands on e-cig profits.

So Steven, the expectation is, obviously, e-cig taxes are coming as well. pretty much everybody we've talked to says it's a matter of time. do you believe those tobacco bond revenues ultimately are safe? Because people probably hate big tobacco, but guess what? It also pays for a lot of government services, believe it or not, on the back end.

Well, yes. well, the thing is, I don't know about safe. you know, just a couple of years ago, in 2007, when a bunch of states put out new bonds, they used projections from global insights. That projection was that cigarette sales would only decline 1.8% a year. The problem is these bonds are very long-term, and it is a risk trying to predict. If you can get in and out of these things, if there's a market to get in at a low price and get out at a low price, you might be saying, but this is a very uncertain market right now. It's one thing to buy another stock, it's another thing to invest for, let's say a decade or more in their bonds.

So, Lee, considering to his point the states need the money, is there any chance e-cigarettes will be taxed like tobacco is? 

Please, they're taxing marijuana in Colorado. Those states need these revenues and need these bonds to work out, period. They're going to figure out how to tax those e-cigs, and that's where you're going to get the industry consolidation. Do you think Philip Morris understands how to work with bureaucracy and lobbyists? Yes, they do. So, if you're doing e-cigs and all of a sudden there's a tax and it's regulated, you're going to sell out to big tobacco. The reason you want to be in now is because there is uncertainty and that's where you find value and value is where you find higher expected returns.

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