Here’s What Investors Really Need To See From LinkedIn

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LinkedIn (LNKD) is set to report FQ3 2014 earnings after the market closes on Thursday, October 30. Like other social media companies LinkedIn has beaten the Wall Street earnings consensus every quarter since going public, but that hasn’t always been enough to keep investors satisfied.

 

Facebook (FB) provided a good example of this phenomenon on Tuesday when its earnings surpassed the Wall Street consensus, but the stock dropped 6.5% anyway. On an absolute basis Facebook’s earnings were stellar. The social network took in $3.2 billion in sales and profits grew by 72% compared to one year prior while year over year revenue growth came in at 59%. Even still these earnings were underwhelming to investors.

 

This quarter 83 contributing analysts on Estimize.com have come to a consensus earnings expectation of 50c EPS and $564.64M in revenue compared to a consensus of 47c EPS and $557.58M from Wall Street.

Estimize, which crowd sources earnings expectations from buy side firms and individual investors forecasted that Facebook would put up 45c per share on the bottom line. The company only recorded EPS of 43c. According to the Deutsche Bank quantitative research team, on average a stock will fall after missing the Estimize consensus even if it beats Wall Street’s expectations. The Deutsche Bank paper and more supporting evidence can be found here.

 

Today contributing analysts on Estimize are looking for LinkedIn to beat the Street’s consensus by 3 cents per share on the bottom line and roughly $6 million on revenue.

Last quarter LinkedIn came out and smashed the Estimize consensus by 10 cents per share. This period, however, it hasn’t been so easy for the social media companies. Twitter (TWTR), Facebook, and Yelp (YELP) have all missed the Estimize consensus and cost per clicks in online advertising are largely down across the board.

Although earnings were great across the social media industry in the second quarter, LinkedIn differentiated itself with a particularly strong performance.  Here are a few factors that may affect LinkedIn’s ability to top the Estimize consensus and separate itself from the pack.

  1. Mobile Engagement- Compared to Twitter or Facebook, LinkedIn is behind the curve on mobile. Over the past 3 months mobile engagement has been a focus for the online professional networking company, and growth is expected from its mobile segment. One specific example of LinkedIn’s effort on mobile are its Sponsored Updates, which work like Promoted Posts on Facebook. In April of this year the company launched a Sponsored Updates API, which is expected to boost content marketers’ interest in LinkedIn and drive Marketing Solutions growth. 38% (up from 33% last quarter) of all traffic on LinkedIn is now coming from mobile, expect mobile to be a continued area of concentration and investment from LinkedIn.

  2. Talent Solutions- LinkedIn’s largest segment is recruiting and talent solutions. Goldman Sachs is expecting to see 55% growth in this area. Much of the growth in this segment could come internationally and from emerging markets. On Monday CEO Jeff Weiner sat down with CNBC for an interview and declared that China is one of LinkedIn’s fastest growing markets, although there are only roughly 3 million users there now (~1% of all LinkedIn users). He also alluded to the fact that LinkedIn plans on expanding its recruiting services to the temporary and part time jobs markets in the future.

  3. Premium Subscriptions- The third and final segment of LinkedIn’s business is premium subscriptions. As of last quarter Marketing Solutions and Premium Subscriptions each made up 20% of LinkedIn’s business while Talent Solutions accounted for 60%. The advertising and subscriptions businesses were each growing by 44% year over year while the recruiting side was up 49%. This quarter it will be interesting to see if growth on mobile accelerates the content and marketing side of the business while recruiting grows at a relatively more stable pace. Regardless, as engagement numbers increase and LinkedIn captures a larger part of the professional online ecosystem, it’s premium subscription becomes a more compelling product to businesses and individuals.

This earnings season analysts on Estimize are setting a relatively high bar for LinkedIn compared to Wall Street as they did for Facebook, Twitter, and Yelp. So far the other 3 big social media companies have failed to hit the mark. After the close we’ll see if LinkedIn can take care of business.

Disclosure: There can be no assurance that the information we considered is accurate or complete, nor can there be any assurance that our assumptions are correct.

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