Softs Report Tuesday, Oct 26


General Comments: Futures were a little higher after a day of choppy trading. Ideas of weakening demand due to weaker world economies hurt the futures market but demand has been very good in the world market. The weekly export sales report was strong. Demand for US Cotton remains very strong and that is good news for sellers as the strong demand implies strong prices should continue. The demand is expected to be strong from Asian countries as world economies recover from Covid lockdowns. Analysts say the demand is still very strong and likely to hold at high levels for the future. Good US production is expected, but there are some questions about the overall production in Texas. There are ideas of less production from India due to recent adverse weather in Cotton areas there. Chinese Cotton areas have had too much rain as well, and Chinese demand is also strong as clothes makers use foreign Cotton to get away from domestic supplies that might have been produced by forced labor and might not be allowed in the US or other western countries

Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 105.36 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 26,021 bales, from 26,284 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 10590, 10530, and 10350 December, with a resistance of 11130, 11290, and 11390 December.

assorted food in sacks

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General Comments: FCOJ was mostly a little higher and chart trends are starting to turn up. Only nearby November was weaker on some long liquidation before the deliveries start at the beginning of next month. The hurricane season is just about over and the chances for a damaging storm to hit the state of Florida are almost nothing. The weather remains generally good for production around the world. Brazil has some rain is in the forecast and flowering will be possible in the next couple of weeks. Weather conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops with a couple of showers and near-normal temperatures. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains. Northern and western Mexico is rated in good condition.

Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered to isolated showers and above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed up with objectives of 130.00 and 137.00 November. Support is at 122.00, 118.00, and 116.00 November, with resistance at 129.00, 132.00, and 134.00 November.


General Comments: New York and London closed higher as some major storms are likely to hit Vietnamese Coffee areas through the end of this week. Roasters are turning to exchange stocks and are buying futures contracts to get in line for deliveries. Trends are mixed in New York but turned up in London with the price action yesterday. The lack of Coffee and freight to move the Coffee that is available is still supporting futures. New York and London are both having trouble sourcing Coffee from any country due to a shortage of containers to carry the Coffee out of the origin country. Scattered showers are still in the forecast for Brazil and some flowering is being reported now in many growing areas. Scattered showers are now in the forecast for Southeast Asia and big rains are possible in Vietnam from a tropical system over the course of the week. No big winds are expected so the Coffee should not fall from the trees that much. Good conditions are reported in northern South America with above-average rains and good conditions are reported in Central America with near-average rains. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Africa.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.909 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 182.64 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near-normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 197.00, 195.00, and 190.00 December, and resistance is at 204.00, 208.00 and 215.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2260, 2290, and 2360 November. Support is at 2180, 2150, and 2110 November, and resistance is at 2240, 2270, and 2300 November.


General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday as the market tries to hold at current trading levels. Ideas are that the supplies are out there but it will take a stronger price to get them into the market. New York was the weaker market on improved weather conditions for the net Sugarcane crop in Brazil. The reduced production potential from Brazil is still impacting the market. India is not offering as world prices are well below domestic prices and has had some weather problems of its own. Consumption of Sugar is said to be improving from previously low levels but still remains rather low. Thailand is expecting improved production. It is raining in southern Brazil which will be good for the next crops there.

Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal today, then above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1910, 1880, and 1830 March, and resistance is at 1950, 1980, and 2000 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 497.00, 496.00, and 485.00 December, and resistance is at 507.00, 515.00, and 522.00 December.

DJ Brazil Sugar Crush Down 46.8% in 1H October at 19.7M Tons
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed less cane in the first half of October compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 19.7 million metric tons of cane in the period, a decrease of 46.8% from the same period a year earlier, Unica said Tuesday. They produced 1.1 million tons of sugar, down 56.3%, and made 1.2 billion liters of ethanol, a decline of 40.3%.
The production mix for the first half of October was 39.1% sugar to 60.9% ethanol, compared with 45.3% sugar and 54.7% ethanol in the same period a year ago.
In the period from April 1 through Oct. 15, mills in the region crushed 487.3 million tons of cane, down 9.6% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production fell 12.5% to 30.3 million tons, and ethanol output declined 6.3% to 24 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through Oct. 15 was 45.6% sugar to 54.4% ethanol, compared with 46.8% sugar and 53.2% ethanol in the same period a year earlier.


General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday and trends are trying to turn up on the daily charts. Ideas of short West African production for the coming year are still providing the best support but ideas that demand will only improve slightly kept futures from making a strong rally attempt. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting improved weather as it is now mostly sunny with some scattered showers around. Arrivals at Ivory Coast ports are now down 15.3% at 277,000 tons. World economies are starting to reopen after Covid and the open economies are giving demand the boost.

Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE-certified stocks are lower today at 5.360 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2550, 2500, and 2470 December, with resistance at 2630, 2680, and 2730 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1740, 1700, and 1690 December, with resistance at 1770, 1820, and 1830 December

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