Tough Week For Foreign Investors

I have just posted our performance tables after returning from my volunteer work. You can view whatever you are qualified to see at www.global-investing.com

Everyone can view the closed positions table but only paid subscribers get our current positions and my opinions on them.

It was a tough week for investors outside the US mainly because of currency factors. A combination of low Euro-land interest rates, fear of Scottish secession, and political uncertainty in Hong Kong, Brazil, the Middle East and the Ukraine led to a boost in the US dollar which made all non-dollar investments sag. Even the Canadian loony is down.

One of our shares took a bad hit after a poor half-year result and omission of its dividend, Naibu, a Chinese sports wear and shoe business listed in London. Following its brokerage and nominated advisor (Nomad), we have cut it to hold. I am not actually bothering to sell this share now as it was hard to buy and cost a higher commission in London than it would have stateside. The main problem the company faces is the impossibility of hiring workers for its new factory, which resulted in its outsourcing sneaker production. This raised costs and hit profits. But it is on track to build a new factory inland from the high-cost east coast which over time should solve its problem. It is the No. 10 maker of youth clothing and footwear in China where locally-made goods have appeal. So let us hang on. More than half the shares out are owned by the company CEO which can act as a ballast.

Another share I am worrying about its Nokia, because I am worried about what it can do to repeat its triumphant sale of its cellphone side to Microsoft. I have hopes for its HERE mapping service as an automobile driving aid, but I am not sure it will nab e-commerce mall business. And the telephone exchange business is highly competitive.

Now for the upbeat side. Because it has the same analyst and the same Nomad as NBU, a pall has fallen over another Chinese share listed in London, China Chaintek, CTEK. It is in the logistics business, which is an area I want to be in given the rise of e-commerce at a rocketing pace in China. Logistics in this case means running warehouses from which goods are shipped in relatively small batches for many manufacturers using combined trucking or rail. This is much too small and boring for Alibaba to bother with but there are many small companies meeting consumer needs. It is a best buy because ultimately the problems of NBU have nothing to do with CTEK.

Our second buy is Allana Potash which is examining a 2nd variant of potash production in its Ethiopian concession for what is already a big business in Africa: fruits and vegetables which cannot take normal potassium chloride plant feed. ALLRF (AAA in Canada) has won financial help from the International Finance Corp., the private investment arm of the World Bank, and from Israel Chemicals, operating using evaporation pools by the Dead Sea, the same technology ALLRF will use in Ethiopia. It needs all the IFC help and has won strong support from the government because there will have to be a new railway and a port to export the Ethiopian production.

Third comes Hikma Pharma of Jordan, hit because its primary listing is in Dubai where a major construction company is in trouble. HKMPY produces generics for the Arab world (MENA) and is branching out into injectables for the USA market (it just took over an empty drug plant near Cleveland.) Its GDRs are also listed in London but of course the taint of Dubai has had an impact. I think this too shall pass.

Another Canadian firm in another of my favorite industries, oil and gas wellhead service technology, is down sharply because this small cap is also active in Dubai and it may also be affected by the ban on selling tech to Russia imposed by the European Union and the US and Canada last week. It sells software licenses and services in reservoir modeling and is called Computer Modelling Group, CMG in Canada, CMDXF for us. (Canadian spelling was not reformed by Noah Webster.)

A final Canadian company which is even smaller (market cap C$400 mn or so) is also down although still well ahead of our purchase price, Pure Technology, PPEHF. It is buying out its oil and gas inspection jv partner, a private company called Hunter McDonnell. Since HM is not listed, there is no arbitrage risk and the $8 mn will be paid $2 mn in stock and $6 mn in cash over 3 years. PPEHF has no long term debt and $41.4 mn in cash and short term investments (as of close 2013). It has multi-year contracts for services of its latest SmartBall fiberoptic inspection system which is selling very well. 

The selloff is not really because of the HM deal at all. It is mainly because the stock is an institutional favorite with a trailing p/e ratio of over 200. The only analysts covering it, Jennings, just raised it to buy from hold because of its fiber-optics . I don't want people to pile into this high-risk stock so I am not making it a strong buy. In addition to energy pipeline inspection PUR mainly does water and waste water pipeline inspection for leaks and inspects bridges, high rise buildings, and other structures like multi-story parking. It has been growing via acquisitions so it knows how to expand. Most of its work is in Canada, The USA, and Mexico. It pays a 1.5% dividend. We bought into PPEHF after it plunged over the 2011 fall of the Qaddafi regime for which it was building a pipeline for the "Man-Made River Authority" to bring water to the cities. It managed to collect the funds due the following year and has mostly exited Libya.

I think the selloff of the loony is overdone and it may reverse soon.

Disclosure: None

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