About That Employment & Housing Recovery

The non-manipulated unadjusted unemployment claims were up 465,000 over the prior week. Of course, the Labor Department “adjusts’” the number to 379,000. Even the manipulated number is the highest since March. How can unemployment claims be the highest since March and the unemployment rate be falling? The unadjusted claims for week of December 14 are higher than last year during the same week. The 1,249,000 people receiving EUC 2008 benefits will be kicked off on January 1. That program is dead. That should do wonders for the SSDI program when these depressed people all apply.

Unemployment claims are a lagging indicator. They don’t rise until you are already well into a recession. They have been rising for the last month. Do unemployment claims rise to a nine month high in a growing economy?  

Existing home sales are falling at a rapid pace and were below the prior year level. They are at 1999 levels and headed lower. Mortgage rates are at two year highs and headed higher with the $10 billion taper. The Wall Street shyster investors who artificially boosted prices are jumping ship like rats. The NAR press release reveals that inventory is building, first time buyers is at record lows and investor buying is still at a record high of 32%. It looks like the lemming house flippers who followed the Wall Street shysters are going to be left holding the bag. I can’t wait for the new show on A&E called Flip the Bankrupt Flipper.

So you have unemployment claims rising, existing home sales falling, home prices beginning to turn negative, rising mortgage rates, retail sales in the toilet, wages stagnating, corporate profits falling, Obamacare premiums crushing the middle class, gas prices at the highest December level in history, and Bernanke about to reduce his monetary stimulus. Of course the stock market should be at record highs.

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