ECRI's WLI Growth Index Rate Statistically Unchanged - Testing - Future Posting

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for over one year. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. ECRI also released their inflation gauge this week.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI's and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. Both indices are showing growth but the intensity is different.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Virtually Unchanged

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) virtually unchanged at 144.3, and the growth rate ticks down to 2.7% from 2.8%.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below: 

- watch Anirvan Banerji's current interview on Reuters.

- read ECRI's "Phillips Curveball".

- read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's op-ed on Bloomberg.

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from which compares the two indices. These indices are now showing slightly different trends.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The June index value (issued in July) shows the rate of economic growth insignificantly declined.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures are receding

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Dips

U.S. inflationary pressures were down slightly in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 111.5 from 111.7 in June, according to data released
Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG dipped in July, further distancing itself from last fall's cyclical peak," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.
"Thus, underlying inflation pressures are clearly easing."

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The June economy's rate of growth (released in July) showed the rate of growth slowed.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

Disclosure: None.

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