Drugs From Israel, Jordan, And Britain, One Safer Than The Little Blue Pill

Bengt Saelensminde writes in The Right Side, a UK stock newsletter:

Until last week, Warren Buffett seemed to be a keen Tesco devotee. I’m not entirely sure what got him so enthused in the first place - nor what’s got him dumping the stock now. Maybe he felt Tesco was the closest Europe could come up with as a Walmart equivalent - an American grocer claiming about 25% of the US market.

With 30% of market share, Tesco is about the same over here. These are classic Buffett investments, old-fashioned bricks and mortar business, with big “economic moats” which make them hard to compete against. But last week Buffett lightened up, cutting his stake in Tesco by nearly a third. Should holders consider dumping too? It looks to me like Tesco’s “multi-channel” approach is clearly starting to pay-off. If it manages to add a coherent online strategy to its solid bricks and mortar businesses, it could turn a retail giant into a dotcom monster.

We sold TSCDY (the American Depositary Receipt) over 2 years ago after I figured its US venture had turned sour. Tesco began a chain of West Coast "Fresh 'n Easy" mini-marts to break into the USA. I am always concerned when British firms hop across the pond with a concept to conquer US markets. We have many differences despite our common language.

I couldn't imagine Californians driving to a wee shoppe when they could buy fresh produce at ethnic markets or settle for lots of standard fare at a big weekly trip to the monster supermarket. So we bailed despite my worrying about taking a step the Oracle of Omaha would not have copied.

Now Tesco is in trouble also in its home market according to Yahoo Finance:

Aldi’s sales growth in the U.K. accelerated to a record in the last 12 weeks as the discounter adds stores and gains shoppers with lower prices, ratcheting up the pressure on domestic market leader Tesco.

The budget grocer’s revenue increased 34% from a year earlier in the period ended March 2, researcher Kantar Worldpanel wrote today in an e-mailed statement. That boosted its market share to 4.3% from 3.3% a year ago.

Aldi and rival German discounter Lidl are winning favor with British shoppers as they cast aside stereotypes of being dark outlets where only low-income people would shop. Aldi this month topped an annual customer satisfaction survey conducted by the Which? consumer group, based on the quality of its fresh food, value for money, and simple store format.

The upscale Waitrose chain, which had topped the Which? poll since it started in 2007, had a record 5% of the U.K. grocery market in the latest 12-week period, according to Kantar. Tesco’s share slipped to 28.7% from 29.6% a year earlier as its sales fell 0.6%.

 

Walmart is present in the British supermarket business via a sub called Asda, also down-market. Walmart was unable to compete against Aldi and Lidl in Germany. Meanwhile a new UK up-market entrant is Whole Foods Market. The US firms may also hit turbulence in British waters.

More follows from Britain, Canada, Israel, Hong Kong, Jordan, Switzerland, Italy, Germany, Russia, and Sweden.

*Zurich Financial, Switzerland's biggest insurance firm, hopes to save $250 mn/yr by cutting 800 jobs in a bid to remove layers of management between HQ and individual units. ZURVY lowered its return on equity goal late last year from 16% to between 12% and 14% because of reorganization costs of over $600 mn. It has already eliminated over 50 jobs in the Middle East market.

Now the former CFO who committed suicide last August is finally being replaced, by George Quinn who moves over to Zurich from Swiss Re in Apr. The stock rose in Zurich trading and now is up 4.2% YTD vs a loss of 0.2% in the Stoxx European Insurance 600 Index.

I continue to favor ZURVY in which I averaged down after the suicide of CFO Pierre Waulthier, despite its gains. It is well-diversified internationally, and conservatively capitalized and managed. And I will settle for a 13% ROE.

*Barrick Gold whose bonds we own has divested about 13.5% of its stake in African Barrick Gold, ABG in London. The buyers were institutions. The remaining ABG shares are now under a cloud despite a 120-day lock-up against further ABX sales by its parent. The ABX shares accounted for 10% of the total outstanding in ABG. This is good news for those who followed me in buying Barrick North American Finance LLC Guaranteed 4.4% of 5/30/2026, a Canadian-issued US$ bond. It is not formally a Yankee bond. The cusip is 065849RAF9.

*A2A hit another 52-wk high in Milan trading this morning, up 2.55%. AEMMY, the US ADR equal to 4 Italian shares, doesn't move much in actual trading but the bid/ask spread is reflecting Italian enthusiasm for the power company.

*First the bad news: The US sub of Teva Pharma will pay $27.6 mn to Illinois for false billing for an anti-psychotic drug for Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries. It also bribed doctors to have it prescribed. Knowing this was coming may be why Teva shares fell in Israeli trading Sunday, when its managers could exit. Among them is Teva chairman Dr Philip Frost, an American, whose own drug empire is faltering under short-selling pressures he no longer has the cash to counter.

The good news is that TEVA is on its way to converting 30 to 50% of its multiple sclerosis patients to 3x/wk from daily Copaxone. By the end of Feb., Teva had converted 8.7% of MS patients to the less frequent higher-dose injection. This is why Barclays and Leerinck Swann upped their target prices for Teva, as reported earlier.

*Citigroup upped TP for Hikma Pharmaceuticals plc to ₤17 from ₤12.6, quite a jump for the Jordan-based pharma group whose stock is quoted in London and Dubai. Its ADR which we own is HKMPY.

*Reckitt Benckiser is up 2.5% in London trading today on the back of its deal to buy a lubrifant and stimulator cream product from Johnson & Johnson yesterday, to add to its Durex line. RBGLY's condoms are safer than the little blue pills or testoserone and moreover stimulate both partners.

*The battle of the two CEOs named Ma continues. Today Alibaba, China's e-commerce giant, paid over $800 mn for a majority stake in Hong Kong-listed ChinaVision Media Group, a riposte to Tencent's move into e-commerce yesterday. TCTZF.

*I sold Ratos yesterday at $9.36/sh, a marginal loss to extract myself from the Swedish small cap stock. It was in the fund portfolio because there is no longer a Scandinavian Fund. RTOBF is out by we still own Investor AB, IVSBF.

*My most recent purchase, buying more Raven Rus, a British firm invested in Russian commercial and warehouse real estate, is up marginally to 78.25 British pence despite my purchase and strong support yesterday from the Investor's Chronicle and a brokerage. While Russia is unpredictable I suspect that it will hold back attacking British firms operating in non-strategic businesses around the consumer sector.

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