My main takeaway from the Greek investment round-up was from one of the two fund managers I met there named John.

While I enjoyed learning about a Greek lady shipowner challenging the men with her own highly leveraged complex of Tsakos companies, one yielding 10.66%, the idea of more investing in Marshall Islands incorporated Greek shippers terrifies. I rode up with Dryships Inc, another Hellenic Marshall Islands company during the last Baltic dry index boom, and then jumped overboard before the DRYS nearly sank. Moreover, while he gambled hard and lost shareholders' money George Economou is an Adonis, blond, suntanned, and handsome; ladies don't tempt me.

Before taking up new share ideas, I figure I had best get in some macro views about places other than China and the USA.

So here is John Llewellyn, from London, with the outlook for Euro currency countries for 2014. He expects less austerity, more growth, and some dangerous populism. He starts by patting himself on the back:

"The 'Anglo-Saxon world', mainstream British and American commentary, fundamentally misjudged the strength of political will, not least German, to make the [Euro] project work. Predictions of the euro area’s imminent demise proved wide of the mark. In contrast, Llewellyn Consulting [his consultancy company] prided itself on its objectivity on [Europe]. While aware of economic malaise and structural fault lines, we recognised [that] European integration has been able to develop institutions to overcome crises. Indeed, crises have provided the impetus – so far – for Europe’s continued evolution and progress.

"Few EU critics have asked themselves what the continent would look like absen[t] the efforts to bind together [its] member states over the last 60-odd years. Judging from history, the answer is probably a more fractious, iniquitous, [and] protectionist, and less prosperous [Europe].

[However], "the euro area economy continues flat. Aggregate output may have stabilised, but a sustainable recovery is hard to detect. The financial sector is fragmented and dysfunctional, and the[re are] uncertainties over the impact of the ECB [European Central Bank supervision].

"Much of the periphery remains acutely depressed, with jobless rates at historical highs, and risk appetite and investment spending dishearteningly low. [Moreover], deflation is emerging as a serious threat when outstanding debt levels (public and private) remain elevated. The process of deleveraging is therefore subject to additional inertia; the threat of something akin to secular stagnation is rising.

"Particularly disturbing is that the current situation reflects the impact of policies introduced to save the single currency. Extended and deep-seated fiscal consolidation within a close-knit trading zone [along] with efforts to accelerate structural reform, added to downward pressures on output, employment, and the price level. And monetary conditions have not been sufficiently loose to offset the[se] effects.

"This is encouraging a combination of 'austerity fatigue' and political polarization [moving toward] next May’s European parliamentary elections. Unless there are positive growth surprises early [next] year, we suspect that the prevailing policy mix will have reached its limits, and be progressively unwound.

"Over the course of 2014, we expect some combination of the following initiatives:

• Considerable slippage in fiscal consolidation programs, if not explicit fiscal expansion. This could extend to Germany, where the new grand coalition is likely to prove more pro-euro than its predecessor.
• Less enthusiastic commitments to structural reform, [or] adoption of some interventionist and protectionist palliatives to preserve jobs, maintain social stability, and curry favor with disaffected ‘have nots’ and [voters].
• Yet more unorthodoxy [by] the ECB. Quite what form this will take and how the more conservative central banks in the euro system will respond is [unknown]. However, inflation is certainly no constraint on additional policy action.
• The activation of further bail-outs, and debt write-downs.

"Therefore 2014 [will] be more challenging and dangerous for Eurozone financial markets than the surprisingly calm 2013."

Mr. Llewellyn's forecasts are hardly likely to tempt us to get into European shares, particularly not those from the unreformed periphery. That means companies at the mercy of government redistribution, or populist or inflationary policies in Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal-- and perhaps France where both John and your editor lived a long time.

Confirmation, if it was needed, of my skeptical attitude to China came with news today that the Central Bank has been feeding liquidity to large Chinese banks to stop interest rates rising. This despite official government support for 'marketization' of interest rates and funding.

Gruessli. Here is a challenge. Today's headline at the Neue Zuercher Zeitung website reads: "Das Fed beginnt mir dem Tapering." Find the grammatical error. The winner will get a 3-mo trial subscription to my Global Investing newsletter or an extension of subscription worth $149.

I'm on cloud 9 now that one of her US biotech shares is up 40% on massive volume thanks to an FDA approval after all. While our biotech maven found this one for me, it was not written about here because we don't do US shares. This made up for the web-site going down for a time when I wanted to file earlier.

More follows including a Greek takeaway and a new stock idea from a well-respected British chronicler of investment ideas and news from Hong Kong, China, Norway, Britain, Holland, Mongolia, and Mexico.

*Our backdoor real estate plays on foreign markets we won't go into directly have done well in India in the past (via Singapore REIT Ascendas India Trust, ACNDF), Japan, China and Brazil(with Singapore-listed Global Logistic Properties, GBTZF), Mexico (with Deutsche Bank Mexico SA Real Estate, FBASF). We are not doing as well in India now or high-risk frontier markets like Mongolia and Myanmar but we never expected these to pay off in the short term.

Russia is now modestly more appealing after Putin's decision to release two Pussy Riot demonstrators, Green Peace prisoners, and Mikhail Khodorkovsky. So, from the Investor's Chronicle's Simon Thompson, an idea for how to play Russia, a British-listed real estate firm, Raven Russia Ltd.,incorporated in Guernsey (Channel Islands). Its London ticker symbol is RUS. It faces a major crisis on Friday which is the deadline for conversion of its institutional convertible shares into common. I expect the price to fall as some 194.8 mn new common shares come into existence from the conversion on Dec. 20 at 1 p.m. British time. The conversion shares are priced at 79.25 pence per ordinary share or 149.25 pence per preferred share, based on prices on Nov. 26. Half preferred shares held by a shareholder can be converted into common and those available which have not been subscribed can be over-alloted to other preferred shareholder who want them, pro rata. A maximum of 194.8 mn common shares can be converted to by preferred shareholders overall. The dilution is limited to 25.9% of the common to meet UK listing rules (see below). US retail shareholders may not convert any preference shares they may own as they are not SEC registere.

The institutions holding the ordinary shares are Invesco with 34.7% of the total; Schroder Investment Mgm. with 10.4%; Mackenzie Financial with 6.7%; and JO Hambros with 6%. These are good names in British banking and Hambros also has Russian credentials. The preference shares are also blue-chip owned, 51.3% by Invesco and 5.2% by Henderson Global but 40% of the preference shares are held by smaller investors. They are the ones who may sell out.

Raven Russia invests in warehouse property in Russia alone or with partners. As of the end of H1 it had $1.586 bn in completed investments in commercial real estate warehouse sites, another $92.6 mn in development, and a land back worth $63.3 mn. The warehouses are 75% in Moscow, 8% in St. Petersburg, and 7% in Rostov-on-Don and Novosibirsk, covering 1.4 mn sq meters. It also owns an office building in St. Pete. The land bank is in 7 cities. In one, Noginsk, it is building a warehouse for a Russian supermarket chain to order, costing $48 mn where the income/yr is expected to reach $8.5 mn for 15 years starting in 2015.

Russia suffers from a dearth of office and logistics real estate and the Moscow vacancy rate for warehouses in under 1%. Rents return about 11% in Moscow and even more in regional cities. RUS earned net profits of 30.3 mn after tax on revenues of $234,2 mn in 2012. I have removed $71.7 mn of unrealized profits on revaluation of investment property and investment property under construction. I also removed negative $16.6 mn in share incentives. Gross 2012 profits were $234 mn in 2012; $163 mn in 2011; and $131 mn in 2010.

Its 2013 H1 underlying net profit was $27.8 mn on gross revenues of $136.6 mn. I have removed from the totals unrealized profits from revaluation of investment property and investment property under construction which would have added another $40.5 mn to before tax profits. I also removed negative 4.3 mn in share incentives in the half year.

The separate entity Roslogistics had $23 mn in turnover in 2012 and $14 mn in H1 this year. It provides warehousing, transport, customs brokerage and related services in Russia. It produced a profit of $13.4 mn in 2012 and of $9 mn in H1, after a reorganization to focus on management efficiency. Also separate, the Raven Mount sub sells residential real estate in Britain and is selling down its inventory of homes and raising cash. The property portfolio is evaluated by external independent valuers based on open market pricing but I still omitted it.

The London stock has traded as low as 20 British pence during its launch but has been between 64 pence and 81.25 pence all this year. It is at its high now. The bid is 78 pence and the ask 81.25 pence. It last paid a dividend in 2011.

Raven was founded in 2005 by the current executive deputy chairman Anton Bilton, a shareholder, who had also launched other companies on the London Alternative Investment Market (for start-ups). It raised GBP 153 mn on the AIM, topped up a year later with a further issue of GBP 310 mn. In 2007 a further GBP 76.2 mn was raised with units (shares and warrants) to the public, plus another GBP 75 mn via sale of units to Invesco. It also bought Raven Mount and issued units worth GBP 65 mn to its shareholders. Then in 2010 after some conversions of warrants into share the stock was upgraded to a full London Stock Exchange listing, which required that at least 25% of the shares be publicly held. In 2012 another GBP 65 mn was raised through a preferred share issue and Raven Rus bough Pushkino Logistics Park (near Moscow) for $215 mn.

The CEO is Glyn Hirsch, a Guernsey chartered accountant formerly with Peat Marwick and then with a UK brokerage belonging to Union Bank of Switzerland, moreover with real estate fund stock management experience at CLS Holdings, Citadel Holdings (in French real estate), and Property Fund Mgm.

The argument for buying the common now is that income is likely to rise and the cost of the preferreds is incurred in sterling, while the real estate is denominated in greenbacks.

There are risks with a real estate fund in Putin-land. Russia can impeded real estate development on grounds of security or zoning and environment. It can impose rent controls. It can block capital outflows. It can force foreign companies to deal with certain banks or intermediaries to tap into their funds, or even require that certain well-connected people get a slice of a building or its rental. None of this is uniquely Russian as scandals and scams mark real estate globally.

Raven Rus has no ADRs. And despite its accounts being denominated in dollars, I had to buy sterling this morning to buy the share in London. The limit order trade is still pending, but I wanted to test if it could be done with e-trade.

*Our 2nd still theoretical new idea is buying convertible stocks and bonds to get what fund manager John P. Calamos calls "the best of both worlds." I met Mr. Calamos, a Chicago-based asset manager of Greek ethnicity, at the Greek investment day this week. He says that higher interest rates are hard for straight bonds to overcome, while convertibles offer "an equity upside." "Even if the market is flat, convertibles hold up. And when stocks rise they follow the market up", he explained.

Calamos, who did academic research on cvs, successfully ran convertible bonds closed-end funds in the 1990s.

He cited Japan, where the stock market dropped 80% and even two decades later is still down from its peak. However, Japanese convertible issues got back to parity a mere 3 years after the crash.

Calamos convertible funds which had been at super-premiums to net asset value were zapped by the market drop in 2008 and haven't recovered yet. Moreover the two Calamos cv CEFs (CHY and CHI) are both concentrated on US issues, meaning they are outside our bailiwick.

Calamos now offers more a general alternative investment vehicle to help retail investors deal with fixed income problems like yield risk, duration risk, bond market risk. Moreover, the funds limits leverage to c25%, unlike other long-short vehicles. For years your editor invested in closed-end funds run by F. Barry Nelson of Advent Capital (and before that the man behind the Value Line Convertible Fund), who has now retired. So I am tempted by a new convertibles guru but he has to be global.

Candidate Calamos Global Total Return Fund (CGO) is c30% invested in sound foreign stocks ranging from Novo Nordisk to Taiwan Semiconductor to Schlumberger Ltd (Dutch SLB), It might make the running but for the fact that its 'distribution' is 8.65% but its income yield is barely over 2%. That means there is more return of capital here than in the funds we already own. I don't like paying management fees to get my own money back.

*Another fund note. Our Mexican Equity and Income Fund declared a $2.12643/sh stock dividend payable to shareholders of record Dec. 30 on Jan. 28, 2014. This will count for 2013 taxes. MXE will limit the payout in cash to 25% of the total, so if you need the money to pay taxes you will have to sell shares now or later and the stock is therefore down today. The 75% payout in shares will be set based on the prices Jan. 22-24. The total consists of short germ gains of $1.64983 and long term gains of $0.47660.

*Templeton Emerging Markets Income Fund (TEI) by currency is 8.5% invested in Brazilian reais, 5.2% in Mexican pesos, 3.8% in Ghanaian Cedi, and 82% in US $ denominated debt from around the globe. The largest debt by country in whatever currency is an 8.2% position in Kazakhstan, 8% in Mexico, 6.3% in Ghana, 5.95% in Ukraine, 5.4% in South Africa, 5.3% in Argentina, 5% in Hungary, 4.7% in Russia, and 4% in Sri Lanka. It is 95% in fixed income and produces a weighted yield of 7.2887% with those scary positions. (Data as of Nov. 30.)

*Martin Ferera checked with management and Mongolian Growth Fund, MNGGF, and was reassured that MNGGF has $5 mn in cash and a portfolio of holdings which cannot be replicated with what it paid over the past 3 years. One insider did sell, to buy a house. But the main reason the share is down is year-end tax loss harvesting. Martin bought more of what he calls YAK.

*Business Week is getting into the holiday mood by writing about smoked salmon, notably Marine Harvest, our recent Norwegian portfolio add, the largest salmon farmer on earth and a serial acquirer of other processors of salmon and lox. Under shipping magnate John Fredriksen, who owns 31.3% of its shares (and who while not playboy handsome like George Economou also has a mixed reputation), MNHVF is gobbling up smaller fish farms. And local brokerages DNB ASA and Nordea Bank AB (the latter part owned by our Sampo Oy of Finland, SAXPF) told BW they expect it to gobble up more of Grieg Seafood ASA of which it now owns 25% and also in Chile, which is the world's 2nd largest fish farm center.

Wholesale salmon prices have risen c80% in the last quarter to NOK 51.4 per kilogram ($3.78/lb) in Oslo and other seafood prices are also up. MNHVF is up on the news.

*Citigroup will sell insurance produces from Hong Kong's AIA Group in 11-Asian and Antipodean countries under a 15-yr deal whose terms were not disclosed. Bloomberg estimates this can generate c$20 bn per year in revenue, commissions, and fees for AIA in major markets like India, China, and Australia. HK:1299.

*Paddy Power plc is up to euros 61.26 in London trading, 2.7%. In the US the bid is $81.95 and the ask $84.95, unchanged. I want to become a market-maker for PDYPF which is Irish.

*I bought Africa Opportunity Fund at $1.19/sh. My write-up is being distributed by seekingalpha.com to paid subscribers. AROFF is the correct symbol; I got it wrong on Monday.

*My take on Delek Group is being featured by Dick Davis Digest. DGRLY.

*Mr Price hit a new high in rands yesterday. We sold at a 23% loss in dollars.