Mohamed El-Erian Is Quitting As CEO Of Pimco

I don't believe Mohamed El-Erian, born an American in Brooklyn but of Egyptian heritage, is quitting as CEO of Pimco without a pivotol political or economic role awaiting him in Cairo under General Sisi. El-Erian, who left the California fund manager once before to invest for the Harvard Endowment, is in his 50s. At Pimco he led the move into equities at what historically has been a bond house owned by Germany's Allianz (insurance.). There is still need for that switch.

El-Erian admitted to me that despite spending his winter holiday in Egypt with relatives a matter of weeks before the Arab Spring uprising hit Cairo, he had not an inkling that trouble was brewing.

While a Muslim, Mr. El-Erian was not associated with any of the Islamist and Muslim Brotherhood movements. He has ”clean hands”, untainted by corrupt dealings or even presence during the Mubarak years.

Go Mo go!

Yesterday Barry Olliff of City of London, a fund invested in closed-end funds, mostly of the emerging markets persuasion, produced a tirade against US lawyers, part of his 15-year campaign to clean up the CEF market.

Like a knight in shining armor, Olliff wants to clean up abuses to help institutions (like his), retail investors, Britons, Americans, and others. “Funds”, he proclaims, “exist for shareholders!”

Shareholders are ill-served by closed-end funds rife with vested interests, unaccountability, lack of independence, and excessive legalism rather than a focus on performance. There is a prevailing conflict of interest as a result, between fund boards and management, and the poor fund shareowners.

The symptoms of the problem include oversupply of copycat funds, and funds' failing consistently to seriously address the stock prices being at persistent discounts from net asset value. They track well only until the ballyhoo of the initial offering has ended.

Defender of widows and orphans, Barry charged that most US buyback programs are a matter of “smoke and mirrors”mainly because the real numbers are not revealed on a timely basis during the buyback period. He noted that many buyback offers were crafted to be uneconomic for either those accepting or rejecting the exit offer, while favoring the advisors and the boards. He also had a few sour remarks about “mark to market” accounting which penalizes US shareholders buying CEFs at the end of the reporting year, hit with an immediate loss.

Actually the latter is a result of the US tax code and the 1940 Act which requires profits at funds to be distributed annually. And some of his zeal for visible buyback programs would require getting rid of the intermediaries who run these to make sure all shareholders are treated equally (pro-rating oversubscribed tenders for example.)

Barry did not address my biggest peeve, that some fund net asset value data is not disseminated publicly, giving insiders their friends the ability to capitalize on mispriced funds at the expense of existing shareholders, buying or selling on the basis of non public information.

More follows starting with news about closed-end funds, with other information from Canada, Greece, Britain, Ireland, Colombia, Brazil, The Netherlands, Israel, and India.

*Readers know that the JPMorgan China Region Fund (JFC) is the main culprit in my sights for failing to give us access to its current net asset value. Having tried persuasion until I am blue in the face, I am sure that the gap in reporting is paying off for Chase or its friends or both.

*Our recently purchased Africa Opportunity Fund (AROFF) is up on mysterious news. AOF here in London informed the LSE that it may propose a “C” share issue to raise more capital, details to be announced. That is about as far as I got with my investigation here in London. Given that the share price has jumped nicely it may be that existing owners of the fund stock will be given pre-emptive rights to subscribe the new shares. I am merely guessing.

Another possible reason for the rise in AROFF prices is that the fund closed 2013 with NAV per share at $1.222. The valuation was made after ex-dividend. I am not sure if this is an official NAV tally or an unofficial estimate by the fund's managers. I got into trouble by not being able to distinguish them in the past because US funds don't do unofficial estimates. However, from the language of the release (dated Jan 9th) I think it is an official NAV figure.

This is the kind of fund Barry Olliff invests in, but since AROFF does not have to report stakes to the SEC as US funds must do, I am not sure if City of London is an AOF-UK shareholder. Barry's US holdings are easy to track.

*Teva is appealing to the Supremes to overrule last summer's lower US appeals court decision ending some of its patent for blockbuster multiple sclerosis treatment Copaxone this May. Last Nov. the US Supreme Court refused to put the lower court ruling on hold until it could decide the matter. While the patent cliff looms, in fact there turn out to be difficulties in creating a biosimilar which works the same way that Copaxone does, and I expect delays in US FDA approvals for copycats.

*Fellow-Israeli Compugen will present its method for finding novel immune system checkpoints at the DC “Bioleaders Forum” on immunotherapy next week. Checkpoints can target antibodies to treat cancer and other diseases. The talk is by Dr John Hunter, VP of Compugen USA and head of its antibody R&D campaign. CGEN owns 100% of Compugen USA.

*Coca Cola Hellenic, CCH, now Swiss incorporated and listed primarily in London, will hold its next board meeting in Cyprus, the ancestral home of the Leventis family which is the Coke franchiser's dominant shareholder. An attempt to meet in Athens was vetoed by the Greek share regulator because CCH had expatriated its headquarters from Greece. It can't go back for three years.

CCH has now added the Irish Republic to the list of countries where it peddles soft drinks, along with Northern Ireland (part of the UK); parts of Switzerland and Italy; Austria; the former Communist countries of Eastern Europe; Russia; Ukraine; Belarus; and the 'stans. The Leventis clan pioneered selling coke in Nigeria and Ghana where the company also operates. Its largest shareholder is Coca Cola of Atlanta, followed by the Cypriot Greeks. The AGM this spring will take place at the worldscale art museum funded by the family in Nicosia.

*Scotia Capital fertilizer analyst Ben Isaacson retains his $110 target price for Agrium despite its poor Q4. He says the autumn planting season in North America was “a bust” because of low grain prices and cold, wet, snowy weather, which led the farmers to stay indoors. Of course they still have to plant now. He also noted that what counts at AGU is not just profits “which are history” but margins, which in fact are expanding and show what is to come. His advice: buy on any dip.

Meanwhile Scotia's less elite advisors note that AGU (for Canadians in loonies) is up 7.4% year-to-date so maybe investors should “take profits.” We invest in greenbacks, not loonies so are not up at all as the C$ sinks in the commodity currency selloff. If I was investing with BNS I would be annoyed at the contradiction but being stateside, I'll stick with AGU.

*Murilo Fereira, the aptly named CEO of iron-ore company Vale, says that the current low China price for iron ore pellets is temporary, and inventories have to rebuilt. This will up the price of VALE's ore. While crackdown on financial shenanigans may result in lower inventory levels going forward, China still needs a backup as its economy rebounds. He believes that the Chinese growth story is intact. Vale is continuing its capital investment in the $19.5 bn Para mine and railway links to it, and the $6.5 bn mine plus choo choo in Mozanbique, plus a port there in Nacala. In Portuguese a fereira is a blacksmith.

*I misspoke last week when I cleared Bank of Nova Scotia from involvement in awful banking scandals. I forgot that BNS is a member of the London Gold Fixing which 2x/day works out what the yellow metal price should be. And there are now investigations into how the fixing may have been fixed.

The pool group met yesterday here to set new rules and nobody was prepared to comment, certainly not the only Canadian target of investigations. There will be no mercy shown if (as rumored) faked prices were given in the past to manipulate the market price of gold, which also impacted interest rate and currency trends. Having a fellow-Canadian running the Bank of England makes it even more likely that if there is a crackdown, BNS will be fined.

*After it announced a half year delay in its first flight of c-series single-aisle commuter jets, Bombardier also planned a 1700-worker layoff (about 6% of its aerospace staff) to preserve capital. BDRAF is heavily indebted and therefore beloved of Canadian analysts who cross some Chinese wall and look at their banks' dealings with the aviation and railway equipment firm.

*Analysts are downrating fellow-bookie Ladbrokes because of fear of regulatory risks. Ladbrokers fell 4.86% on Tuesday. Even in London it is impossible to get a price for Paddy Power plc, which is Irish.

*Also from Ireland, Covidien plc is abandoning its machines from treating high blood pressure with devices working on the kidney. COV .

*Following Credit Suisse, Johnson Rice raised Schlumberger to overweight from neutral. SLB is Dutch and reported a poor Q4 which missed because of North American order flow falling. Maybe it was the weather which led oil prospectors to remain at home just like farmers.

*Toronto Dominion Securities raised Cameco to buy from hold. We recently bought back CCJ because I am an atom power believer.

*Citigroup raised Ecopetrol to an equal weight from sell. EC is a Colombian mini oil major.

*Dr Reddy's Lab was downrated to neutral from outperform by Zacks, a Chicago momentum analysis shop. I think RDY, the Indian-owned global generics group, has a bright future.

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