The Best Made Plans Of Mice And Men

Robert Burns said: "The best made plans of mice and men gang oft agly." My office was put off-limits by a carbon monoxide leak from the garage below, on a day with much news to write about. But I am not as badly off as Microsoft is; our Department of Homeland Security has warned people not to use Internet Explorer because it is vulnerable to cyber crooks using fake websites. Nor am I as embarrassed as Bank of America-Merrill Lynch is after an accounting error overstated its tier I capital by $4bn so that it had to suspend its dividend and share-buyback.

More follows with a gaggle of corporate results from Spain, Finland, and Canada, an explanation for an Italian and a Canadian stock sale, and news from Brazil, Portugal, Israel, Britain, Ireland, Singapore, South Africa, and Mongolia.

*Spanish Banco Santander Q1 profit hit euros 1.3 bn ($1.8 bn), ahead by 8.1% both over prior year Q1 levels and the analyst consensus, mostly thanks to a 14% drop in non-performing loans. However, its reserves for bad loans actually rose year/over/year. SAN gained profits in Spain, its homeland, where the rise was a scant quarter, to euros 251 mn, and in Britain, where the profit recovery was nifty, up 63% to euros 376 mn, helped also by strong sterling. However, currencies worked against SAN in Latin America where profits dropped 26.6%, led by a 27% drop y/o/y in Brazil and a 43% drop in Mexico. The UK turnaround was spearheaded by Ana Patricia Botin, the chairman's daughter, who may become his successor.

EPS did not do as well, off 1.9% to eurocents 11.3 because of issue of new shares in lieu of dividends

SAN also will use euros 4.69 bn of its own shares to buy out minority shareholders who own 25% of its bank in Brazil, a 20% premium over yesterday's close. It will complete this conversion by Oct and until then the Santander Brazil shares and ADRs (BSBR) will continue to trade. SAN hit a new 52-wk high in Madrid after it reported. It also replaced its embattled CEO, Alfredo Saenz with Javier Marin, formerly a senior executive vp at the Spanish bank and before that head of its private banking arm. Saenz is under investigation by the Bank of Spain for possible illegal lawsuits against borrowers two decades ago, before he joined SAN, while he headed Banesto. He was also replaced by Mattias Rodriguez Inciarte as board vice-chair.

*Also reporting today, after the huge payout by Microsoft for its handset business, was Finland's Nokia which named Rajeev Suri, head of its key Nokia Solutions & Networks telephone exchange arm as the new CEO, replacing Stephen Elop who went over to MSFT. NOK reported a net profit Q1 of euros 108 mn (vs a loss of 98 mn a year before.) Revenues however fell 17% to euros 2.33 bn, missing analyst estimates. It predicted operating margins this year of 11.4%. Both figures did not include the Microsoft payment of euros $7.5 bn which was $177 mn higher than the initial deal. NOK will pay euros 3.1 bn ($4.15 bn) of the MSFT loot to shareholders via extraordinary dividend, 26 eurocents or 36 US cents/sh this year, pending approvals, plus share buybacks. It also will pay 11 US cents/sh in ordinary dividends this year. It will also have to pay euros 180 mn in Finnish taxes on the deal and give up ~euros 200 mn in unrecognized deferred taxes. It also repaid euros 1.5 bn in a MSFT convertible bonds issued for the deal.

In a year's time, NOK will have about euros 5 bn in net cash on its balance sheet, or about a quarter of its current capital, according to an analyst at Credit Suisse--barring another sinking ship or, more likely, a merger or aquisition.

NOK stressed that Microsoft did not gain any concessions limiting its ability to monetize its intellectual property, with ~14,000 parents, a key future earner. Nokia currently earns royalties from only about 10% of its patents so monetizing the rest can pay off hugely. NOK also noted that its HERE (Navteq) mapping operating margine soared to 4.8% in Q1 vs a negative 2.3% a year earlier. The share rose smartly in Euroland trading and on Wall St. today. The old adage, "sell on news" didn't work.

*The 3rd reporter today was Canadian uranium miner Cameco (CCJ) which missed badly. Profits came in at C$36 mn vis prior year $24 mn, 9 loony cents vs 7. However profits missed a consensus estimate of 10 loony cents/sh. Revenues missed by 15% coming in at C$419 mn off 5.6% from prior year Q1 despite 35% higher volumes and 14% highr realized prices for uranium. While the much delayed Cigar Lake mine is now producing ore, the McClean Lake processing mill will not as expected begin working in the current quarter as forecast. It reported as a discontinued operation its former holding in Bruce Power Ltd., sold for C$450 mn at the start of 2014.

Moreover CCJ CEO Tim Gitzel warned that the current market risks include "excess supply and discretionary demand for uranium" which puts "downward pressure on the price." Medium term "we do not expect improvement", he added. "The long-term outlook for the industry remains strong." It is paying 10 loony cents/quarter in dividends which it didn't earn in Q1.

*More on why Canadian Solar stock crashed yesterday. CSIQ put out a 20(f), and 14(b) and (g) filing with our SEC for 2013. It stressed risks of its business after it reported its first operational profit. And there are many risks. First there is a price war in solar silicon which in 2013 cost 67 US cents/watt vs 77 cents in 2012 and $1.34-$1.80 in the two years before that. While many competitors have shut in plants they can be reopened. CSIQ needs third party funding for its solar power utility construction deals and also depends on government subsidies and incentives. It is at risk for higher taxes as a foreign company from the country where its wafers and cells are made, China. Its CEO owns just under a quarter of the stock. It is at risk of US anti-dumping and countervailing duty cases brought by its competitors and other cases in India, the EU, and even China itself. The SEC is investigating certain deals in 2009-10. It cannot make acquisitions without raising capital which may water down its shares. Its Chinese auditor (a sub of BDO) is unable to verify its accounts as required by Sarbanes-Oxley rules because of a Chinese ban. Chinese rules keep it from paying dividends to shareholders.

Worrying was not only the roll-call of risks but something entirely different: the breakdown of CSIQ sales by country. In 2013 its sales were 53.5% to Asian customers; in 2012 only 22.9% of its customers were Asian. In 2013 the Americas (US and Canada mainly) accounted for 35.6% of sales. In 2012 they only took 26.4% of sales. Europe accounted for 50.7% of 2012 sales and for only 10.9% of those in 2013. This moveable feast makes it extremely difficult for CSIQ to build on its existing customer relations, as laws on renewable energy change and markets shrink or grow in tandem. It also makes it pretty near impossible for me to forecast that Canadian Solar's extraordinary growth can continue with customers turning fickle. That is why I sold half my CSIQ at $26.2501 yesterday. The price is up a bit this morning and now at $27.53. We bought at ~$8.64 so we have no money left on the table as the share has more than tripled.

This share was recommended by Oeko-Invest, an Austrian "green" newsletter with which we trade. But I am not as green as Max Deml, its editor.

*Today I sold my A2A SpA Italian utility shares, AEMMY, at $5.77/sh. This stock was recommended by Tim du Toit of Hamburg in a defunct newsletter we traded ideas with. It is hard to cover from the USA. It rose after I sold to $5.816. We paid $4.42 last summer. I wrote I would sell on Sunday.

*The capital increase of Oi in Brazil raised Reais 8.25 bn ($3.7 bn) via the issue of extra shares which will enable the family owners of Oi to repay their debt and merge it with Portugal Telecom. The new share issue has another month to run but the Rs 8 bn target has already been topped. PT's Brazilian assets remain the same, at Rs5.7 bn, despite the sharp drop in Oi common (and to a lesser extent voting preferred) shares.

*Paddy Power plc is up nicely today although my Financial Times did not include the indexed article which might have explained why. So here are two guesses. First, as the most internet-based desktop and phone-based bookie shop, PDYPF may be less vulnerable to new British laws giving local councils the right to ban the opening of more one-armed bandit locations on High Streets in their locality (British for Main Streets).

Moreover, Paddy has signed a partnership accord with The Daily Mirror, a tabloid newspaper, to integrate its betting app with football content plus live game reporting by the Mirror. According to a Paddy business developer, this could work to let punters bet on whether a penalty kick will or will not score as soon as it is reported, a real time bet requiring all of two clicks. To ensure that this ease doesn't lead to gambling addiction, players will have to open and fund a Paddy account which bet size will have to match.

*While China is cracking down on steel makers using import loans, ostensibly for importing iron ore but actually to fund operations, JPMorgan argues that Vale is less vulnerable than its rivals to tightened controls on letters of credit. That's because the brokerage upped its estimates for nickel prices. It expects the nickel price this year to hit $18540/ton this year, up 22% from prior estimates, and $24,000/t in 2015, up 52%. Since about 10% of VALE EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, a measure of cash-flow) comes from nickel, this will add $600 mn to the EBITDA level this year and $1.7 bn to it in 2015-6. That also means Vale can cover its dividend this year.

*Teva won European Union ok to launch its DuoResp Spiromax dry inhalant for treating asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The combo of a conticosteroid and beta2-adenoceptor agonist is still in phase III trials so this is significant. The Teva combo is aimed at controlling over-medication.

Teva signed a deal with Japan's Takeda for sale of its Rasagiline treatment for Parkinson's disease but the valuation was not given. This follows an earlier accord for multiple sclerosis drug Copaxone. Both are part of Teva's ethical drug franchise, not its generics business. Takeda is charged with getting the drugs approved in Japan.

However, Activis and Mylan are suing to stop the US FDA from giving Teva a 180-day exclusivity for a generic for Pfizer's Celebrex whose patent expires in May. PFE sold $3 bn worth of the drug last year.

*Our best performing stock last week was GlaxoSmithKline, up 6.2% in sterling and even more in $s. It is in the yield portfolio. GSK reports tomorrow on Q1. Analysts are negative to neutral expecting GSK EPS at GB 21.3 pence/sh vs year earlier 26.9 p. It is in our yield portfolio. GSK today got approval from the EU to market its Incruse to treat COPD with a powder inhaler to be launched later this year. It will have to compete with Spiromax.

*Motley Fool Singapore forecasts that Global Logistic Properties (GBTZF) may raise its divvie as it earns more steady money from its sideline in fund management for foreign pension plans.

*Breaking with most of the analysts out there who rate it a buy, Zacks kept Covidien plc, the Irish medical devices firm, at neutral. COV.

*Mongolia Growth Fund reports that by Q3 it will create a property management arm, MGG Properties LLC, which will consolidate costs and enable it to attract 3rd-party real estate asset management. A new $200 mn railroad is being built to link Mongolian coalfields with China by 3 mining firms and Shenhua Group. The Chinese firm expects the price of Mongolian coal will fall by $8 per tonne once the line is built. Helping the deal is the new swap by the Mongolian central bank with People's Bank of China for Yuan 20 bn. Mongolia is also building a 650-mile highway from Ulaanbaatar to Russia.

*Our worst performing stock last month was Naspers, off 9.5% in rands. NPSNY is suffering both for being a tech stock and being South African.

*Delek Group is raising money via special purpose companies selling bonds backed by its two Tamar drilling subs plus Yam Tethys, Delek Drilling and Avner Oil. Each sub will issued 5 tranches of US$s bonds in Israel and the USA to trade in Tel Aviv with maturities between 2016 and 2025. The total raised can be as much as $2 bn and they are expected to be rated Baa3 by Moody's, BBB- by S&P, and AA by Maalot, the Israel rater. DGRLY.

*Global Investing smart recent sells include 3 Warren Buffett faves: Posco (PKX, a Korean steel-maker); Tesco (TSCDY, a UK supermarket chain now facing a negative rating call by S&P because of excess price cutting; and BYD (BYDDY of China) which is having problems selling electric cars.

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