Two bits of news from across the pond. First, Paddy Power plc informed the Dublin Stock Exchange that it has bought 150,000 of its its own shares to try to offset the overwhelming impact on its share trading of the institutional market. PDYPF paid euros 48.50 per share, about $1.3133 per euro (Friday's price for the euro in NYC.) Because it earlier acquired treasury shares, Paddy now owns 1.884 mn of its own shares, about 2.7% of the shares out. These shares have no voting rights. Some of the shares were bought indirectly from Standard Life Investments Ltd. which reduced its Paddy stake from 3.679% to 1.81% but the shares bought were well below the 921,000 sold.

Even those who don't know German can figure out the headline at Neue Zuercher Zeitung today: Novartis naehrt die Hoffnung auf einen Blockbuster. (Novartis near hoping for a blockbuster.) NVS has its HQ in Basel but the dateline was actually Barcelona where at the European Society of Cardiology our newest pharma share presented results from a clinical trial of its drug, LCZ696 which acts in a novel way to protect against heart failure. The drug includes a sacubitril, which acts on the heart's neuro-hormonal system by blocking an enzyme called neprilysin, which makes it easier for the heart to pump and for the kidneys to function. Neprilysin breaks down a hormone needed to decrease blood pressure. It is combined with Diovan, an angiotensin receptor blocker, which was Novartis's best-seller blood pressure pill until it lost patent protection two years ago.

In a trial with 8,442 heart patients with reduced ejection franction, a failure of the heart muscle to contract fully, NVS' unique drug reduced deaths by 20% and duration of hospital stays by 21% compared to standard therapy using enalapril, an ACE inhibitor. The trial result was also written up in Saturday'sedition of the New England Journal of Medicine.

Heart failure affects ~26 mn people around the world. And according to NVS head of pharma, David Epstein, "it's clearly a multi-billion dollar opportunity" as its mode of action is totally different from that of ACE inhibitors. Heart failure is when the heart cannot pump enough blood through the body and and affects about 20% of human beings. About half of those suffering heart failure die within 5 years. The drug is also in trials with patients with preserved ejection fraction, where the ventricles do not relax as they should, for which it may also work.

Hints that the Swiss were onto something helped persuade us to buy NVS. Back in Mar., the LCZ696 trial was stopped early because the interim analysis showed that LCZ696 was meeting its primary endpoint of reducing death and hospitalization, but there were no published data results. The drug, according to Dr. Epstein, has US patent protection to 2016 and no other company has a comparable product in testing. He told Reuters "it will be possibly the most exciting launch the company ever had."

Credit Suisse today put out an estimate of sales of $4bn for the new drug. Leerinck, a London brokerage, estimated sales would hit $6-8 bn. NVS rose 4.3% in Zurich trading to hit SwFr85.9 today, a new high for the year. You will have to wait until Tuesday to trade it in the USA.