Club Med And Canada; Alibaba And Tecent Go Head To Head; And More...

This will be the year of Euroland's Club Med countries and Canada, which will replace the BRICS.

The American Depositary Receipt market is doing well for banks and underwriters according to Citigroup. Not however as well for investors.

In 2013 companies (mostly from Russia, Taiwan, and China), raised $10.5 bn with ADR and global depositary offerings, primary and secondary. About 54% of the issues were initial public offerings. The total of capital raised fell 16% from levels of 2012 for lower-rated companies having less appeal.

The number of unsponsored ADRs trading hit 1,575, a 4 year high. Depositary banks like unsponsored ADRs because they can collect higher fees than with sponsored ones.

There are measures being considered by some of the emerging markets countries to ease regulations limiting DR issues, which may go some way toward offsetting the market uncertainties caused by Euroland plots to impose a financial transaction tax on trading in shares issued by Euroland companies, bought or sold by Euroland shareholders, or using brokerages or banks from the EU as intermediaries in the trading.

While the main vehicle for global diversification remains mutual and exchange-traded funds, the ADR market has also achieved a place in the panoply. In 2013, despite all the negatives, traded volume of 14.7 bn shares remained virtually unchanged from 2012, although there was a bit of a cheat involved, as the price levels of the most heavily traded ADRs was lower last year.

If the move into European markets last year continues, it should help the ADR market. US purchases of euro-land stocks in 2013 were at the highest yearly level since the common currency was created in 1999, according to the Financial Times. Euroland potentially can replace emerging markets as a destination for US investors looking for better growth and yields—with less interest rate, political, and other risks. Gun-shy investors should be lured into Portugal, Italy, Spain or France (where I am right now) as they shun such hotspots as Ukraine, Thailand, Turkey, Argentina, or Venezuela, and worry about the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). They will venture into the Club Med lands.

Through the end of Sept., inflows into funds investing worldwide were heavy, topping $113 bn as investors sought diversification.

US-Canadian relations may improve and result in more flows northwards after the likely decision to be released perhaps today by the Department of State. Foggy Bottom is expected to decide that pollution will not be increased if the Keystone XL cross-border pipeline is built. It would transport Alberta oil sands heavy crude oil to US refiners and users, and to Gulf ports. The argument is that the oil sands will be developed in any case without a TransCanada oleoduct. President Obama said he would not approve the pipeline if it would increase carbon pollution.

More follows from Ireland, Spain, Israel, Mexico, Brazil, China, Panama, Finland, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Canada.

*In 2013 the most widely traded ADR was low-priced Nokia Oij of Finland, distorting the volume numbers reported above. NOK is priced as a penny stock. Its target price was raised to euros 5.2 from 4.8 today by HSBC which still rates NOK a hold, mentioning however the upside risk of “windfall cash” from the Microsoft buyout.

*Paddy Power plc is in play. Capital Group, California fund managers, have now taken their holding in the Irish bookier to 11.0129%, the first institution to achieve double-digit stakes. As frequently noted, the ADR hardly trades as the real market is inter-institutional. US brokerages block PDYPF trading because it is believed to rival them with accounting for difference trading for UK stocks, most notably Charles Schwab. Paddy meanwhile has attacked British bookmaker rivals for holding back data on high-stakes betting machines requested by a charity for the UK betting gambling minister, Helen Grant. The fixed-odd terminals are a temptation for problem gamblers. Paddy wants to cooperate on regulating the machines but other Big 4 bookies will not help out.

*A quarterly report from Mexichem revealed that a 20% boost to revenues came in Q4 thanks to non-recurring one-off factors which resulted in (surprise, surprise) a rise in revenues to $1.2 bn. Without the one-offs, sales would have been flat, with higher chloro-vinyl line sales offsetting lower fluor chemistry ones. EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, a measure of cash flow) were also flat at $180 mn. However, the jv with Pemex is now operational and I expect better results in 2014. Also helping MXCHF is its ability to boost its borrowing, which is barely at half the target level, after its restructuring of European chemical buys in the past 3 years.

*Spanish Santander bank missed analyst forecasts of euro 1.2 bn in Q4 profits, reaching only a level of euros 1.06 bn. However, this was more than double prior year Q4. The drop in loan-loss provisions and the interesting arbitrage or carry trade possibilities (using the European central bank cash window to borrow money to place in much higher yielding Spanish government bonds), plus the usual benefits from Latin American banking, failed to offset continuing troubles in Spain. These included a higher level of non-performing loans, at 5.64% vs prior year 4.54%, and an 11.6% drop in interest income. SAN's chairman Emilio Botin nonetheless claimed that “a turnaround” has been achieved.

The arbitrage was described by yesterday's as helping smaller banks more than SAN.

*Telefonica, our other Spanish mnc play, may not get a crack at buying Spanish cable group Ono after all (which would also not make Liberty Global, its rival, happy either.). Ono filed for an ipo in Madrid yesterday with the CNMV, the Span ish regulator. The two firms, LBTYA and TEF are scrapping over Ono as they did earlier over Kabel Deutschland, discussing terms with the private-equity owners.

*Meanwhile yesterday Brazilian regulators approved the full merger of Oi, a local partly private telco, with Portugal Telecom, which will take place later this quarter, without conditions. The merged group will be 38% owned by PT, and has $16 bn in revenues and 100 mn subscribers, making it a player in the consolidating Brazil market.

*Delek Group is reportedly planning to spin off its oil and gas holdings in Europe to finance exploration in Israel in London. The sale will be of Chevron assets in the Benelux and a refinery and station chain bought from BP in France. What may remain is uncertain but I believe will include DGRLY's financial services and insurance business and some offshore exploration and development sites in Israel. Delek and its partner Noble Energy of TX will also be selling two Alon Israeli offshore drilling licenses.

*China's internet duel is now hitting taxi calling and payment, with Alibaba and Tencent entering the lists with rival systems. TCTZF WeChat's systems has the excellent name of Didi Dache, which means Beep Beep Taxi, whereas Alibaba's is called Kuadi (fast) Dache. Alibaba plans to list later this year but its main e-commerce business faces slower growth according to its major shareholder, Yahoo, as it already controls 80% of the market. Alibaba has other growth options too, including a variant of Paypal, Alipay, which Chinese an now use to book travel or pay for restaurant meals in China or US Chinatowns. Mobile taxi payments in the past 2 years have nearly quadrupled to over $20 bn (RMB 130 bn).

*Teva will distribute in Israel MDx Health's cancer screening tests to reduce the need for often risky surgery when prostate or brain cancer is suspected. Terms were not disclosed but may indicated a wider-reaching distribution later.

*Pure Technologies, PPEHF, maker of monitoring systems for water, sewage, and gas pipelines, was named Canadian “Cleantech stock of the year.”

*Canadian Solar has the largest market share in the Japanese market for photovoltaic systems and cells, CSIQ revealed.

*Banco Latino Americano de Comercio, Bladex, or BLX, ran another successful syndication for a Latin American bank. IT raised $75 mn for a year with an unsecured term loan for Banco Internacional de Costa Rica.

*Ecopetrol (EC) has made a partnership with Meta Pete for Colombia pipeline and refining operations.

 

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