Almost Unnoticed, Libya Slips into Chaos as Well

With all eyes on the advances of the Islamic State in Iraq and lately on the traditional flattening of Gaza (happens every few years it seems), Libya has not been on the radar much. Perhaps it should be though. Ever since former Libyan strongman, the eccentric Muammar Ghadafi – a politician who was actually hard to beat in terms of entertainment value – was dethroned with Western help, the country has become a kind of free-for-all. This wouldn't really be a problem if not for the fact that the various groups are vying for power. The reason in this case seems to be mainly of a commercial nature: it is a fight over who is going to get the country's oil revenues. Nevertheless, the fighters are partly also religiously inspired, or at least aligned with radical Islamist ideology. Various militias are not only battling the government, but are also fighting among themselves, as the country has  apparentlyde facto fallen apart into several warlord-ruled fiefdoms already. The most recent altercation has caused the UN to flee from Libya and has “cut Libya off from the world”, as Benghazi as well as the Tripoli airport were at the center of a fight between an Islamist and a reportedly more “liberal” militia.

“The United Nations on Monday pulled its staff out of Libya where at least 13 people have been killed in fighting in the eastern city of Benghazi and in Tripoli, forcing the closure of the international airport.

Security and medical sources said at least six people had been killed and 25 wounded in Benghazi in heavy fighting between security forces and rival militias since late Sunday. Militias also clashed in the capital Tripoli on Sunday, killing at least seven people, shutting the main airport and air control center and effectively leaving Libya with no international flights. The fighting was the worst in the capital for six months. The U.N. mission in Libya said the closure of Tripoli International Airport and the deteriorating security situation made it impossible to fulfill its work.

Several Grad rockets hit the airport, damaging the control tower, a Libyan official said. A Reuters reporter at the airport heard anti-aircraft guns and other heavy weapons. Rival militias have been fighting for control of the airport since Sunday. Residents earlier said a Grad rocket struck the airport perimeter late on Monday. No further details were available.

Three years after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has slipped deeper into chaos with its weak government and new army unable to control brigades of former rebel fighters and militias who often battle for political and economic power.

In Benghazi, irregular forces loyal to renegade former general Khalifa Haftar bombarded Islamist militia bases as part of his campaign to oust militants, and special forces also clashed with militia fighters in the city.”

The Guardian adds some additional color. In the excerpt from Reuters above, it sounds almost as though the renegade general's group (which calls itself the Zintan militia) were attacking the Islamists. According to the Guardian, the Islamists were actually the ones doing the attacking this time around – the good general in turn was last seen actively attacking them in May:

“Islamist militias determined to oust the Zintan group from key sites it controls in south of the capital claimed responsibility for Sunday's Tripoli airport attack.

The attack was beaten off, but there were also clashes at other Zintan-controlled sites for several hours, especially on the road to the airport.

Libya has been awash with weapons since the Nato-backed uprising three years ago that toppled and killed Gaddafi.

Successive interim governments in Tripoli have struggled to establish a strong army and police force, giving former rebel groups a free hand to act.

The well-armed and disciplined Zintan militia has sided with forces loyal to renegade former general Khalifa Haftar, who launched an offensive against Islamist militias in second city Benghazi in mid-May.

[…]

Eastern Libya, particularly its main city Benghazi and the hill town of Derna, have become strongholds of jihadist groups. Renewed clashes between troops and Islamist militia in Benghazi on Monday killed at least seven people and wounded 49, medics said.

Tripoli on Sunday

(photo © AP / Keystone)

Just to be clear on this, general Khalifa Haftar isn't helping the government, he is running his own outfit. It seems that the Islamists and the Zintan militia regard the rivalry between each other as more important than challenging the most recently installed government. This indirectly tells us that the official Libyan government is probably pretty much powerless.

Given Libya's size and geography, it is presumably easy to bomb, but definitely not easy to control. The most likely outcome of the situation is that it will cease to exist as a unitary state – a fate Iraq can probably also look forward to.

Meanwhile, in Yemen …

Yemen is best known for being home to numerous Sunni militants of the Al Qaeda type. It is also a training ground for the drone war, which has probably created 10 new djihadists for every one killed, due to the inevitable piling up of so-called collateral damage.

The latest troubles however are emanating from a Shi'ite militia, which has just captured a city, provoking angry denouncements from the country's president.

“Yemen's president on Sunday demanded the withdrawal of Shi'ite Muslim tribesmen from a captured provincial city, in a stand-off that threatens to intensify turmoil in the Arab country.

The Houthis, named after their tribal leader, had handed back an army camp to the Yemeni government on Saturday to try to defuse tensions caused by their capture last week of Omran, some 50 km (30 miles) north of the capital Sanaa. But President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi signaled the government's patience was running out.

"Everyone has to understand very well that there will be no negotiation over the exit of the Houthis with their weapons from Omran," he was quoted as saying by state news agency SABA, in comments he made at a lecture at a military college. The fall of Omran has drawn condemnation from the U.N. Security Council and a threat of military action by Hadi, who has ordered the army to raise its preparedness level to "carry out any tasks that may be assigned to it".

The fighting has killed at least 200 people, displaced more than 35,000 and renewed fears for Yemen's stability. The U.S.-allied country is still trying to recover from a political crisis that started with mass protests in 2011 and forced Hadi's predecessor to step down. It is also struggling with a southern secessionist movement and a local wing of al Qaeda.

[…]

The Houthis captured Omran last Tuesday after days of fighting against government soldiers and allied Sunni tribal fighters, in clashes that had threatened to turn into a sectarian conflict.”

Somehow we doubt the Houthis will be overly impressed by UN condemnation or Hadi's threats – after all, they have just given his army a black eye. Saudi Arabia seems to be increasingly surrounded by chaos, and the threat of potentially even greater chaos. The Saudi government has a fairly strong grip on power, but that is no guarantee for anything – and the country remains OPEC's “swing producer”, i.e., it retains the ability to relieve any short term oil supply bottlenecks that may occur in the world.

Eventually, unrest may well spill over into Saudi Arabia as well – and perhaps it will also come from the suppressed Shi'ite minority in the country. While the Shi'ites are only an estimated 10 to 15% of the Saudi population, they happen to live near the major oil fields, so they have at least some geographical leverage. And they are definitely unhappy.

Khat-chewing Houthi fighters in Yemen. Khat is a mildly psychotropic stimulant that induces mild euphoria and suppresses hunger as a side effect. Apparently held to be useful for fighters, judging from the picture.

(Photo via alarabiya.net, author unknown)