What About The Picts? What About Reg S?

It's all very well for the Scots to vote for independence, but who is giving a voice to the Picts? Back when Hadrian was building his wall it was intended to stop Roman Britain from attacks by the Scots and the Picts! Picts were Celtic raiders from the north (north of the River Clyde and the Firth of Forth who were separate from the Scots. The Romans called them Picti because they painted or perhaps tattoo'ed themselves. Their name from from pictus, Latin for paint. They are mentioned by The Venerable Bede.Irish writings call them Xritani (the X is how linguists write the ch in the Scottish word loch), and the very word Britain may be derived from it.

All these variant nationalisms and particularisms are blamed on the 19th century by Rabbi Lawrence Hoffman (at a lecture and book signing I attended last night.). He thinks the ecumenical thrust of Judeo-Chrisitian relations has wrongly focused on Passover which he says is a recollection of Jewish particularism. It is all about how the Israelites escaped Egyptian slavery, a miracle retold at family Seders now increasingly also being organized for Christians whose ancestors were presumably not slaves in Egypt.

Instead, Dr Hoffman says the focus should be on the High Holidays (the 10 Days of Penitence, which begin this year at nightfall on Sept. 24th, the Jewish New Year, and run til Yom Kippur Oct. 3-4.) His book is called All the World, a reference to the Jewish hymn sung at New Year services. It begins “All the world shall come to serve Thee”, stating the reason why the Jews are the “chosen people”. They have the mission of converting all of humanity to monotheism.

The theme is also picked up in the second reading of the Bible on the holiest day of the Jewish year, Yom Kippur. It is the story of Jonah, who is called upon by God to preach repentence to the people of Nineveh (in present day Iraq near Mosul) who were not Jews. He is told to warn them that if they do not reform Nineveh will be destroyed in 40 days. In seeking to escape this call, Jonah heads for Tarshish (Tarsis) by boat and famously is swallowed by a whale (large fish) which then spits him out. Jonah reluctantly goes to Nineveh and calls for repentence. Then he gets angry because instead of continuing in their wicked ways, the Ninevites, led by their king, put on sackcloth and ashes and fast and are spared. Jonah is so embarrassed at God's mercy that he asks to die.

So God replies: “Should I not have compassion on Nineveh where there are many thousands of persons (children) who do not know the difference between their right hand and their left?”

A third universalist element of the High Holy Days is the frequent recital of the “aleynu” prayer which begins with thanks to God for giving Jews a different destiny than that of the Nations. It ends with what was considered heresy from Jews living under Christian rule, and by the Inquisition. Here is my translation from the Hebrew:

“It is written that the Lord will be King of all the world.

On that day, on that day, on that day, the Lord shall be one

And His name shall be one.”

This song denies the doctrine of the Trinity, emphasized by repetitions of “on that day.”

*An obcure dispute over shareholder rights in the bankruptcy of Suntech Power Holdings of China is worth pondering before you spring for Alibaba (NYSE-BABA post-ipo.) All the former NYSE-STP assets are in China but they are registered in Singapore and were controlled via a British Virgin Islands shell co through a  holding company from Grand Cayman. Now a Singapre court has freozen transfers aimed at collecting these Caribbean assets for China. This stock was one we owned ages ago when Fei Chen fell hard for its then CEO, a solar scientist who had studied in Australia. I read about it in The Financial Times today.

*Oi and Portugal Telecom shareholders on Tues. approved new merger terms which reduced PT's stake in the new entity announced yesterday after I blogged. PT shareholders approved the new terms with a 98.25% “si” vote, as the best available option according to analysts. The vote became necessary when Rioforte, a Luxembourg holding co. of the Banco Espirito Santo of Portugal defaulted on a euros 900 mn short-term credit from PT. PT then took on the unpaid debt and will sue to extract the loot from the BES bad bank, while taking up a smaller share in Oi.PT has a call option to buy more Oi stock over the next 6-yrs if it recovers Rioforte money from Luxembourg.

The successor to BES, Novo Banco (the Portuguese state-controlled “good bank”) voted yes. The Telemar Participações merger shares will be listed in Brazil and in Portugal and, subject to US SEC approvals, on the NYSE.

PT has a claim on Rioforte which it now will own in return for the Oi shares it could not subscribe, with an option to buy them back.

Rioforte assets and the call options are now PT's only assets as it continues to trade. Our theory is that there is plenty of value in Rioforte which owns the Tivoli Hotels and other real estate in Brazil and Portugal; ES Viagens (Portugal travel agency); ES Saude (Portugal private hospitals and other units; Cobrape, Brazil soya, cattle, and rice farms; Botucatu Portuguese citrus farmsl; Agriways Brazil sugarcane and eucalyptus plantations; two Brazilian land companies, Golondrina and Ganadera Corina owning 75000 hectares; and a large Brazilian renewable energy unit and another doing geothermal exploration, plus other holdings in Africa. This is becoming less of a mad gamble daily.

*It is not just Poland which is facing a shortfall in deliveries from Gazprom, which is trying to stop backflow to Ukraine from its solvent customers further west. Today Slovakia said Russian gas deliveries are 10% off this week from contractual rate. Poland today said its shortfall is more like 45%, up from 20-24% reported earlier.

There is a solution. A floating regasification plant can be sailed into the Baltic Sea (or the Black Sea if we want to be really provocative) to bring emergency US gas to eastern Europe. The European Union has now voted to apply the sanctions package it delayed earlier which will stop Russian state-sector oil and gas companies from borrowing from western banks for more than 30 days or employing specialist deep-water and shale gas drilling companies from the west. The ban also applies to dual-use software.

Our likely winner from this upgrade of tensions is from Russia's new friend to the east, Anton Oilfield Services of Beijing, China, a specialist in exploring for oil and gas from shale. It operates internationally one reason its results have been bad (because of ISIS attacks on its drilling site staff in southern Iraq).

While Schlumberger Ltd (Dutch-incorporated, from where the largest group of Malaysian Air victims came from) owns 20.1% of ATONY, and the 2 companies have a strategic cooperation accord, ATONY is legally independent, privately-controlled, and legally Chinese but listed in Hong Kong. SLB has no role in ATONY management and cannot say “nyet” or "neen" to ATONY helping Gazprom, OGZPY. OGZPY reported a 41% slide in Q1 profits today, because of debt write-offs after it unilaterally raised the price of gas to levels Ukraine could not pay, 80% over the price charged under Viktor Yanukovich. The ruble also fell which caused a FX loss.

*My purchase of OJSC Cherkizovo stock has now been busted by e-trade because the trade violated the SEC's Regulation S. Reg S limits retail investor access to newly-issued overseas stock until they are seasoned, usually for 90 days but for up to a year. Since CHE listed in London in 2011 it sounds unlikely to be right but may reflect the recent company relisting in rubles in Moscow last month. I thought I bought the GDR in US$ in London. But the share has fallen so I come out ahead thanks to e-trade's compliance officer's intervention. Cf fund notes below.

*I managed this morning to buy Amec plc ordinary shares (AMCBF) at $17.80. That's a nickel over the target price I set yesterday mainly because I had to work with my ad copywriter rather than input my order after the blog went out. The sacrifices I make!

*Our Irish bookie stock, Paddy Power plcis taking lots of wagers on the Scottish independence vote. They are running strongly to “no” despite Irish independence and Celtic solidarity. PDYPF.

*Royal Bank of Scotland would relocate south of the River Tweed if its former employe Alex Salmond (who worked as an energy economist at the bank) gets the result he wants, Scottish independence, RBS said today. It said its ability to borrow would be hampered by a Scexit. We won't be alone turning Sassenach with our RBS preferreds asLloyd's Bank also plans to relocate to England.

*Liberty Global and Comcast are testing a shared wi-fi service which may be rolled out in the US and European networks next year. This first international partnership in wi-fi will give more high-speed internet access to 2.5 million LBTYA customers and 3 mn Comcast Xfinity ones when they are each firm's network area, in the US for Liberty) and Britain, Benelux, Ireland, Poland, Switzerland, and 9 other European sites for both. Your editor owns CMCSA and CMCSK which report earnings today.

*No sooner had “The Death of Iron” been heralded from the pundits than Vale rose from the dead.

*Teva phase 3 trials of Copaxone in the new 3x/wk formulation at 40 mg (vs the standard 7x/wk 20 mg) halved the level of adverse events related to the injection which sounds logical as there were fewer than half as many jabs. TEVA stock is up.

*Fund note: Central Europe, Russia and Turkey Fund did a tender offer for 5% of its stock outstanding and got offers from its shareholders who were willing to cede 68% of the stock. We just simply sold CEE.

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