Mid Cap Report

By Todd Campbell
Thursday, December 12, 2013 11:28 AM EDT

The best scoring mid caps from one year ago (12/12/2012) averaged  bps of excess over the S&P 400, with 0% turnover.  The top performers included ACXM up 101%, CNO up 83%, BEAV up 82%, BC up 73%, and ALK up 71%.

  • The top mid cap sector is consumer goods
  • The best mid cap industry is small tools & accessories.

The average mid cap score is 72.76, below the 4 week moving average score of 72.81.  The average mid cap is trading 5.89% above its 200 dma, has 6.15 days to cover short and is expected to see EPS growth of 14.43% next year.
 
The best mid cap sector is consumer goods.  Industrial goods and healthcare also score above average.  Services score in line.  Basics, financials, utilities and technology score below average.


MID CAP       12/11/2013 4 Week MA
Company Name Symbol Sector INDUSTRY SCORE SCORE
BEST          
Omnicare OCR SERVICES DRUG STORES 110 108.75
Robert Half International Inc. RHI SERVICES STAFFING & OUTSOURCING SERVICES 110 102.5
Acxiom Corp  ACXM TECHNOLOGY IT SERVICES 105 102.5
Associated Bank ASBC FINANCIALS REGIONAL BANKS 105 102.5
Cincinnati Finl Corp CINF FINANCIALS PROPERTY & CASUALITY INSURANCE 105 103.75
Dillard's Inc. DDS SERVICES DEPARTMENT STORES 105 103.75
Fossil Inc. FOSL CONSUMER GOODS RECREATIONAL GOODS, OTHER 105 106.25
Hancock Hldng HBHC FINANCIALS REGIONAL BANKS 105 102.5
Heartland Express HTLD SERVICES TRUCKING 105 105
Int'l Rectifier IRF TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR- INTEGRATED CIRCUITS 105 85
Manpower MAN SERVICES STAFFING & OUTSOURCING SERVICES 105 102.5
Mettler Toledo Inc. MTD TECHNOLOGY SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS 105 107.5
Trinity Industries Inc TRN SERVICES RAILROADS 105 107.5
Verisign VRSN TECHNOLOGY INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES 105 108.75
Alliance Data Systems Corp. ADS FINANCIALS CREDIT SERVICES 100 97.5
Alexion Pharma ALXN HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 100 98.75
Avery Dennison AVY CONSUMER GOODS PAPER & PAPER PRODUCTS 100 100
Borg Warner BWA CONSUMER GOODS AUTO PARTS 100 100
Bally Tech Inc.  BYI SERVICES GAMING ACTIVITIES 100 98.75
Cheesecake Factory Inc  CAKE SERVICES RESTAURANTS 100 97.5
Church and Dwight Co Inc CHD CONSUMER GOODS CLEANING PRODUCTS 100 97.5
Choice Hotels International, Inc CHH SERVICES LODGING 100 97.5
Commercial Metals Co CMC BASIC MATERIALS STEEL & IRON 100 98.75
Carpenter Technology Corp. CRS BASIC MATERIALS STEEL & IRON 100 97.5
Covance Inc. CVD HEALTHCARE RESEARCH SERVICES 100 85
Curtiss-Wright Corp. CW INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 100 98.75
Deckers Outdoor DECK CONSUMER GOODS TEXTILES 100 100
Education Mgmt. Corp. EDMC SERVICES EDUCATION & TRAINING SERV 100 97.5
Gentix Corp GNTX CONSUMER GOODS AUTO PARTS 100 97.5
Helmrich & Payne Inc HP BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION 100 97.5
Hormel Foods HRL CONSUMER GOODS MEAT PRODUCTS 100 86.25
Illumina ILMN HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 100 97.5
Kansas City Southern KSU SERVICES RAILROADS 100 102.5
Level 3 Communications Inc  LVLT TECHNOLOGY DIVERSIFIED COMMUNICATION SERVICES 100 98.75
Mednax Inc. MD HEALTHCARE SPECIALIZED HEALTH SERVICES 100 98.75
Nasdaq OMX Group NDAQ FINANCIALS DIVERSIFIED INVESTMENTS 100 103.75
Open Text OTEX TECHNOLOGY INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES 100 98.75
Pall Corp PLL INDUSTRIAL GOODS DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY 100 98.75
Stifel Fin'l SF FINANCIALS INVESTMENT BROKERAGE 100 98.75
Terex Corp TEX INDUSTRIAL GOODS FARM & CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY 100 100
Urs Corp New URS SERVICES TECHNICAL SERVICES 100 86.25
United Therapeutics UTHR HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 100 103.75
Vistaprint NV VPRT SERVICES BUSINESS SERVICES 100 98.75
           
WORST          
Big Lots, Inc. BIG SERVICES DISCOUNT, VARIETY STORES 20 50
Rent-a-Center RCII SERVICES RENTAL & LEASING SERVICES 25 23.75
Strayer Education STRA SERVICES EDUCATION & TRAINING SERV 25 26.25
Abercrombie and Fitch ANF SERVICES APPAREL STORES 30 31.25
Douglas Emmett DEI FINANCIALS REITS 30 30
Owens and Minor Inc OMI SERVICES MEDICAL EQUIPMENT WHOLESALE 30 51.25
Radio Shack RSH SERVICES ELECTRONICS STORES 30 25
Weight Watchers WTW SERVICES PERSONAL SERVICES 30 27.5

 

 

 

Commentary:

 



The best mid cap industry is small tools & accessories (TTC, SSD, SNA).  Auto dealers (PAG, AN, CPRT) offer upside as light vehicle sales continue higher.  Spending on drugs (UTHR, ALXN, VRX) is expected to climb a compounded 3-6% through 2017, an acceleration from the <3% over the past couple years.   Specialty drug spending is forecast to lead, growing 38% to $230-$240 billion in 2017.  Steel (CRS, CMC, STLD, HSC) prices have been improving since summer thanks to rising production rates for vehicles, planes, and appliances.  Value added products and services also offer margin support.  Beverages (STZ, MNST) offer upside through the holiday shopping season.

The best mid cap basics baskets are steel & iron, specialty chemicals (GRA, NEU, CBT) and industrial metals & minerals (ACI, WLT, ARLP).  In consumer, buy beverages, auto parts (GNTX, BWA, ALV, TEN, CLC) and textiles (DECK, WWW, COLM, UA, MHK).  The top financials industries are regional banks (HBHC, ASBC, CYN, SIVB), investment brokers (SF, LM, GHL, RJF), and P&C insurers (CINF, ACGL, RE).  Loans and leases at commercial banks stand at 7377 billion, up from 7330 billion at the end of October.

In healthcare, buy drug makers and biotechnology (ILMN, TECH, BMRN).  The top industrials groups are small tools, farm & construction machinery (TEX, MTW, AGCO) and aerospace/defense (CW, TDG, BEAV, TDY, HXL, ATK).   Across services, focus on auto dealers, trucking (HTLD, KNX), and restaurants (CAKE, WEN).   The Nat'l Restaurant Association's Restaurant Performance Index improved 0.7% to a four month high in October.  Only information & delivery services (MORN, DNB) and semi equipment (TER) score above average in mid cap technology.  In October, the semi equipment book-to-bill grew to 1.05, up from 0.97 in September.

 

MID CAP INDUSTRY SCORE BY SECTOR   12/11/2013
Sector INDUSTRY SCORE
     
BASIC MATERIALS STEEL & IRON 91.00
BASIC MATERIALS SPECIALTY CHEMICALS 86.67
BASIC MATERIALS INDUSTRIAL METALS & MINERALS 81.67
BASIC MATERIALS CHEMICALS- MAJOR DIVERSIFIED 75.00
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION 72.00
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING 67.50
BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 63.57
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES 52.00
CONSUMER GOODS BEVERAGES 90.00
CONSUMER GOODS AUTO PARTS 81.25
CONSUMER GOODS TEXTILES 77.50
CONSUMER GOODS PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS 76.67
CONSUMER GOODS HOME FURNISHING & FIXTURES 76.25
CONSUMER GOODS PACKAGING & CONTAINERS 73.57
CONSUMER GOODS PAPER & PAPER PRODUCTS 70.00
CONSUMER GOODS BUSINESS EQUIPMENT 66.67
FINANCIALS REGIONAL BANKS 87.86
FINANCIALS INVESTMENT BROKERAGE 83.33
FINANCIALS PROPERTY & CASUALITY INSURANCE 82.50
FINANCIALS ASSET MANAGEMENT 78.00
FINANCIALS REITS 54.78
FINANCIALS INSURANCE BROKERS 52.50
HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 91.67
HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 81.25
HEALTHCARE DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES 80.00
HEALTHCARE MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES 75.83
HEALTHCARE HOSPITALS 53.00
INDUSTRIAL GOODS SMALL TOOLS & ACCESSORIES 95.00
INDUSTRIAL GOODS FARM & CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY 86.67
INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 86.11
INDUSTRIAL GOODS INDUSTRIAL ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT 78.75
INDUSTRIAL GOODS DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY 78.33
INDUSTRIAL GOODS WASTE MANAGEMENT 65.00
INDUSTRIAL GOODS RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION 63.00
INDUSTRIAL GOODS GENERAL BUILDING MATERIALS 58.33
SERVICES AUTO DEALERSHIPS 91.67
SERVICES TRUCKING 88.33
SERVICES RESTAURANTS 85.00
SERVICES BUSINESS SERVICES 80.00
SERVICES ELECTRONICS WHOLESALE 80.00
SERVICES SPECIALTY RETAIL, OTHER 73.33
SERVICES ADVERTISING AGENCIES 72.50
SERVICES EDUCATION & TRAINING SERV 67.00
SERVICES MOVIE PRODUCTION, THEATERS 66.67
SERVICES PUBLISHING-NEWSPAPERS 60.00
SERVICES PERSONAL SERVICES 55.00
SERVICES BROADCASTING 51.67
SERVICES APPAREL STORES 50.63
SERVICES DISCOUNT, VARIETY STORES 41.67
TECHNOLOGY INFORMATION & DELIVERY SERVICES 78.33
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS 78.33
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR-SPECIALIZED 73.33
TECHNOLOGY INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES 72.50
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR- INTEGRATED CIRCUITS 68.75
TECHNOLOGY DIVERSIFIED ELECTRONICS 67.50
TECHNOLOGY SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS 67.50
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS SOFTWARE & SERVICES 66.00
TECHNOLOGY TECHNICAL & SYSTEM SOFTWARE 65.00
TECHNOLOGY COMPUTER PERIPHERALS 61.67
TECHNOLOGY COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT 58.00
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR-BROAD LINE 57.50
TECHNOLOGY PRINTED CIRCUIT BOARDS 50.00
UTILITIES GAS UTILITIES 66.67
UTILITIES DIVERSIFIED UTILITIES 63.33

 

None.

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