Q3 2021 U.S. Retail Scorecard

Seventy-two percent of companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported Q3 2021 EPS. Of the 145 companies in the index that have reported earnings to date, 75% have reported earnings above analyst expectations, 1% matched and 24% reported earnings below analyst expectations. The Q3 2021 blended earnings growth estimate is 26.7%.

The Q3 2021 blended revenue growth estimate is 13.6%. Sixty-six percent have reported revenue above analyst expectations, and 34% reported revenue below analyst expectations.

Exhibit 1: Refinitiv Earnings Dashboard

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv

Retail earnings

Because of last year’s store closures, consumers went online to make purchases. As a result, “online sales” is one of the least disruptive measures. E-commerce sales results will continue to reveal if the flight to online spending looks to become permanent or is fading.

Below are this week’s Q3 digital sales growth estimates, which suggest business volume is holding up on top of very difficult comparisons from a year ago:

Exhibit 2: E-commerce Sales Estimates/Results –Q3 2021

Source: Refinitiv I/B/E/S

Here are this week’s Q3 2021 earnings and same store sales expectations:

Exhibit 3: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates–Q3 2021

Source: Refinitiv I/B/E/S estimate

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