There Were Warning Signs Before Herbalife’s 3rd Quarter Disaster

Herbalife (HLF) bombed its earnings report after the close, bringing investors to a whole new level of pain. In after hours trading the stock is down 13%.

The controversial multi-level marketing company reported earnings of $1.45 per share, missing the Estimize consensus of $1.53 and even missing their own guidance of $1.51. Furthermore Herbalife cut its guidance for the 4th quarter of the year. Management is now expecting earnings between $1.30 per share and $1.40 per share, much lower than the Wall Street consensus of $1.69.

The results are agonizing, but they weren’t without warning signs. Last quarter Herbalife missed the Wall Street consensus on the top and bottom line. That was the first quarter the company missed on either EPS or revenue over the past 2 quarters.

Growth also slowed dramatically last period. EPS was up 10% on a year over basis compared to roughly 20% growth over the past year. The rate of revenue expansion also grinded down to just 7% while it had hovered around 18% over the previous 12 months.

Total sales volume was only up 5% last quarter. Over the past 3 months that rate dropped 1 percentage point to 4%.

Another potential warning signal was that the EPS growth rate was stalling despite a massive stock repurchase plan. Last quarter Herbalife spent over $500 million throughout the quarter buying back its own stock, lowering the number of shares outstanding and therefore propping up the scrutinized earnings per share ratio. When the EPS growth rate is grinding to a halt in spite of over half a billion in stock buy back spending, that’s not a good sign.

Disclosure: There can be no assurance that the information we considered is accurate or complete, nor can there be any assurance that our assumptions are correct.

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