A Quarter Of Europe’s Natural-Gas Supply Is About To Disappear

You may think this title is an exaggeration—not so. It’s completely true, and personally, I plan on making a fortune from Europe’s predicament. So can you, by the way.

As I write this missive, I just wrapped up the first day of the PDAC, Canada’s biggest resource convention held the first week of March in Toronto. Among the resource experts here, the big buzz on everyone’s lips is Russia—which just tells me that I am spot on about the European Energy Renaissance. I guess my predictions have made the rounds in resource circles, because I noticed that all day industry people have been swarming around me, asking questions and wanting to know my thoughts about what will happen next. Since many of them seem to read theDaily Dispatch, I’ll conveniently answer here.

One thing I do know for sure is that the EU-27 (the 27 countries that make up the member countries in the European Union) does not want to see Russia shut down the pipelines in Ukraine. 40% of the total natural-gas imports to the EU comes from Russia, and half of that imported gas flows through Ukraine’s pipelines.

In other words, the EU is addicted to Russian natural gas. How addicted? Below are the four largest economies (by GDP) in the EU-27 and how much of their natural-gas imports is from Russia:

1. Germany—36% from Russia

2. United Kingdom—25% from Russia

3. France—15% from Russia

4. Italy—27% from Russia

France imports less natural gas than the other three because a majority of France’s electricity is generated by nuclear reactors. Germany is Russia’s largest customer in Europe for natural gas, and that percentage above will continue to rise as the country turns its back on nuclear energy.

Germany also has the most to lose if Putin decides to play “musical pipelines”—turning off the faucet to teach the UN, United States, and the European Union that Russia will not be threatened or forced to act against its own interests. Higher natural-gas prices are a certainty all across Europe unless a resolution to the Ukraine crisis appears very soon.

Because Europe depends on Russia for so much of its natural gas, it’s quite clear why the EU countries pay a more than 100% premium to US-priced natural gas.

Those energy companies that can create an alternative to the Russian oil and gas supplies for Germany and the UK will make windfall profits—and I believe investors who pick the right companies run by the right management teams will reap spectacular rewards exceeding those of the early Bakken.

President Obama can threaten Putin with sanctions, but the Russians won’t be bullied any longer by the US and United Nations, and it’s not America but the EU that faces a painful shortage if Russia does decide to flex its muscle and shut down the flow of natural gas. Putin will do what’s best for Russia, and higher prices for oil, gas, and uranium are great for Russia.

We’re in the very early stages of the European Energy Renaissance, which is nothing more than bringing modern North American technology, innovation, and equipment to the oil and gas basins in Europe.

As a fellow investor, let me emphasize to you that the time to act is now. This is not an investment opportunity that may or may not happen. This is happening—now. We’re in the early stages of one of the greatest opportunities of all time for investors.

How Rich Will the Next Bakken Make You?

One of my favorite plays in the “Next Bakken” is a small-cap oil and gas explorer and producer that is currently drill-testing wells and owns over 2 million acres in Central Europe. The field it’s sitting on has produced almost 100 million barrels in the past, so the question is not whether the oil is there, but how much of it can be extracted economically—with cutting-edge American technology.

We’re awaiting the initial well results of our “Next Bakken” play by the time we’ll publish the next issue of the Casey Energy Report—and I’m convinced that this is the greatest speculation since the newsletter’s inception. It’s not a one-hole company, and it will take many years to fully penetrate the basin. The area has been de-risked because we know the oil is there; the past-producing area simply has never seen modern equipment and drilling methods.

Once the flow rate results for the initial well—which is just one well of dozens yet to come—are made public, we’ll be ready to feed those results into our financial models, and within 24 hours of the announcement, Casey Energy Report readers will get a full analysis.

If the initial production numbers are at or above 500 barrels of oil per day (bopd), we know that we may be on to something as big as (or bigger than) the original Bakken… and it’s anyone’s guess how far the share price will rise at that news.

The current well in the “Next Bakken” is the longest horizontal oil well ever drilled in this European country, and we think this is just the beginning of the probably hottest energy play of 2014-2015. It’s really that great.

This is sort of a déjà vu experience for me. People laughed at me when I said the same thing about Lukas Lundin’s company, Africa Oil, in 2010. By 2013, Africa Oil had become the hottest exploration play in the world, finding world-class, elephant-sized oil deposits in the East African Rift in Kenya.

I believe our “Next Bakken” pick will give Africa Oil a run for its money. My friend Lukas Lundin made his billions of dollars by discovering monster oil plays and holding on for the ride—and I’ve learned a lot from him.

It’s not too late to get into this amazing oil company, but you want to hurry, before the good news goes public and drives up the share price. Is there any risk? Of course. It’s still a speculation, so please don’t bet the farm on it. While positive flow rate results are not a given, however, I’ve rarely been more convinced that we may be looking at something very, very big here.

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