Tuesday morning in Australia was a busy time for economic news.

First, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the release of the Apple (AAPL) iPhone 6 helped drive electrical and electronic goods retailing to a record 9.2% growth. {snip}

Australian retail sales (“turnover”) look ready for another ramp to end the year
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

On the flip side, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that Australia’s balance of goods and services fell further in September…{snip}

Australia’s balance of goods and services continues to plunge
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

This whipsaw in good and then bad news was reflected in the intraday reaction of the Australian dollar (FXA). {snip}
 

The Australian dollar rocks up and down and up again on important economic news
Source: FreeStockCharts.com

The RBA said nothing new in issuing its November policy statement. {snip}

With the market’s expectation for a rate cut in the next month increasing only slightly, I am expecting the Australian dollar to continue to hold its bottom for 2014 to close out the year, all else being equal. The ever strengthening U.S. dollar is of course a key wildcard. Relatively benign trading in the Australian dollar should also be supportive of other risk trades in financial markets.

Expectations for a rate cut jump but the odds remain relatively low

Source: The Australian stock exchanges’s RBA Rate Indicator – December 2014

The 2014 low continues to hold for the Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollar