Economists who forecast the United States economy are in about as much agreement as they ever are—and I find that scary.

Compilations of economic forecasts are very useful. Most importantly, the average of forecasts has proved to be more accurate over time than any one forecaster. When you need an economic forecast, you’re usually better off grabbing that consensus than finding an economic guru.

(The most popular surveys are Blue Chip Economic Indicators ($1,195), The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey (included with subscription) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (free). There is substantial overlap of forecasters covered among these three surveys, so any one will suffice (though I confess to looking at all three).

The latest survey shows a remarkable agreement among the forecasters. The chart below shows the difference between the next-quarter forecast of real GDP at the 75th percentile and the 25th percentile.

(Explanation: rank the surveys from most optimistic to least optimistic. The 75th percentile is the forecast that separates the top 25 percent from the bottom 75 percent. Similarly, the 25th percentile separates the bottom one-fourth from the top three-fourths. When the difference between the 75thpercentile and the 25th percentile is small, then the forecasts are very tightly clustered. When the difference is large, there is a substantial divergence of opinion among the forecasters.)

Right now the dispersion of forecasts is low. Although not the lowest on record, it’s clearly in the group of low-dispersion quarters. What does this mean?

In a recent academic paper (ungated working paper here), economists Cosmin Ilut and Martin Schneider found that a shock that triggered large dispersion of economic forecasts would be negative for the economy. Uncertainty about the future would lead both consumers and businesses to be cautious about their expenditures (though that is not the precise mechanism in the authors’ model of the economy.) However, dispersion data are hard to interpret: what is a shock from outside and what is the natural result of the cyclical course of the economy?

Dispersion of forecasts usually peaks near the end of recessions. Thus, when you see a great deal of argument among professional forecasters, there are probably some forecasters stuck in their gloomy moods while others are anticipating recovery.

What does our current low level of forecast dispersion mean? Unfortunately, it’s common to have a strong consensus on economic growth just before recessions begin. That’s not the same as saying that strong consensus usually leads to recession, which it clearly does not.

What I find scary about the strong agreement among forecasters is that it masks the real possibility of a recession beginning soon. Do not be comforted by the fact that few economists are forecasting a downturn; it could happen anyway.