Hail And Farewell

To “invest in” global warming-induced hurricanes and other catastrophes in the Caribbean, the World Bank is offering $30 mn of high yield “catastrophe bonds” These over the next 3 years will pay much better interest than normal AAA issues from a World Bank body. But there is a catch.

The issuer is the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility of the Bank, which insures the Bahamas, Dominica, Jamaica, and other Windward and Leeward Islands. If there is a major hurricane or earthquake in the 16 island countries covered, owners of the bonds risk loss of capital because they will be tapped to pay the CCRIF to cover the losses. And in some cases the bond-holders may have to pay out more than the face value of their bonds. This would pay for repairing damage and also cover the loss of the islands' crops and production plus the resulting lower tax revenues.

In a yield-hungry market, demand was high when the bond was floated yesterday, but the pricing and interest rate have still not been made public. The theory is that floating off this risk on the market is better for vulnerable countries than trying to insure against catastrophe on their own, or using the private P&C markets directly.

Chances are that an investment manager looking after some of your money has bought this novel bond already, or that he or she will snap up future issues which are expected.

Thank you to readers who wrote encouraging me after I wrote yesterday about how I was banned from www.seekingalpha.com

Subsequently I learned that the editor who tried to intervene on my behalf, Yosef Levenson, has left the service where the axes are now being wielded anonymously. Anonymity also is increasingly accepted from contributors, including short-sellers which rather lowers the credibility of the 7-year-old investment site.

Today seeking alpha published an anonymous report on Stallergenes, the French maker of sublingual allergy desensitizing meds which was taken over by a Swiss group in 2010. There are still a few shares traded at a low price in Paris. Such advice is manipulation by a nameless guy, “Early Retiree”. In early 2010 I was forced by a Fidelity compliance officer who called me to sell my shares below the STLGF takeover bid price because it was not SEC registered.

Then 'Fido' placed the order, given in euros, for execution in US$. As a result I went into arbitration against the broker, and they simply banned my account in retaliation. I guess expecting ethics from brokers and websites is a futile business.

Today I tease my cleaning woman and her cousin the door person (both Uruguayan) about the quality of the national dental system. When in Europe I will make a visit to Pablo, a Uruguayan expat artist who works on the block where we used to live to tease him too. More for paid subscribers from Israel, South Korea, Ireland, Britain, Brazil, Russia,The Netherlands, Canada, and Australia. And a note about how to hedge.

I leave soon for a 6-week European junket. There will be a blog Monday written from Mudchute Manor, but none Tuesday (travel) or Friday (July 4.)

*While my UVXY Proshares Ultra VIX short-term futures ETF hedge is up ~0.5% since I placed my bets earlier this week, it is underperforming an older hedge we go in for, gold.

*Both GLD, SPDR Gold, and individual stocks like IAG, IAM Gold, are up more. And while I do not get good pricing coverage from e-trade over our Barrick North America Financial LLC (cusip 06849RAF9) it is up about $30 per 10-bond lot this week at $10520, pushing down its yield to 3.544%, in sympathy with the price of gold. However, our ABX common is still abut $3/sh below what we sold at, which shows that gold is a tricky hedge too.

*Cosan and Vale diverged again today, with CZZ up and VALE down. I think the World Cup is throwing too many analysts at Brazilian blue chip companies (to try to justify their travels). Both companies are heavily into logistics, a big growth area in Brazil. Vale is suffering from its over-dependence on the China market where, surprise, surprise, companies cheat by double-counting their stocks in claiming bank loans for commodity purchases. So far this happened only with gold and copper, but there is no reason why iron ore is exempt from greed. What may be turning the travelers off is fear that some of the recent demand was for fiddling purposes and will not be repeated.

Vale is also being manipulated by the Brasilia government which got its former CEO sacked. It is also star of a horror movie behind its business loss from corruption in Guinea. Note that none of this is new. None of this is new.

*The Motley Fool is worrying about our yield from GlaxoSmithKline, now coming in at a rate of ~5.1%. The service notes that GSK has been upping its payout but that the coverage level is falling. In 2009 the dividend was twice covered; last year the dividend level (£4.7 bn) was only 1.3x covered not counting another £1 bn in share buybacks. Since then in Q1 the divvie was raised again by ~6% while forecast eps is lower this year but up ~10% next year.

In the end the Fools decide “Glaxo can still make you rich.” My view: what with selling its portfolio of older drugs and switching assets with Novartis, it is tough to predict GSK forward profits.

*Alkermes is below the price I paid for it so if you want to buy into Ireland's tax charms, here's your chance. ALKS is developing drugs for psychosis.

*I just realized that both our long-term Oz stocks are spelled with an O,Origin Energy and Orocobre. OGFGF and OROCF. Neither should be bought on a Fridayas the marketmaker has to cover his risks for the whole weekend after Australian closed last night. Origin is a play on Chinese demand for liquefied natural gas as the only accessible player likely to get the stuff shipped soon. Orocobre will produce lithium soon in troubled defaulting Argentina. Better lithium than manic-depression over the bond market.

*The Friday ban is even more true of Benitec, BTEBY, whose 5:1 relisting is still in process. It is $5.30 bid $5.7 ask, a sure sign of market-maker panic. The converted shares are not yet showing in my account.

*Mysteriously, my e-trade account shows now both the recently-listed L'OccitaneLuxembourg shares, LCCTF and the Hong Kong-traded version, 0953. I recommended doing the conversion which will be cost-free, so I am not about to trick the brokerage by trading eithe.

*Goody, goody, my account now shows Performance Sports Group, NYSE-PSG. This is the former Bauer, BRRPF of Canada, for hockey-, lacrosse-, and softball-mad grandchildren's grandma.

*Coverage of Teva was begun by Canaccord Genuity with a “hold” rating. The EU's CHMP made a positive recommendation on TEVA's clopidogrel, an anti-blood clot pill

*Standpoint Capital cut its rating on Yandex from buy to hold. YNDX is a Russian-, Ukrainian- and Turkish-language Internet and phone search service run from The Netherlands.

*Ecopetrol was added to its coverage by Barclays with an underweight rating. EC

*Raymond James cut Covidien to outperform from strong buy. COV.

*Reader PH asked about when Shinhan Financial pays its dividend. SHG, of South Korea, pays annually and modestly. It last paid out 1.4% in mid-April for the year 2013. There is no way to know if it will pay out as much again this year. Moreover, it is mean as it has been building out its capital by keeping money back. It is rated by the usual Smartconsensus Regional Bank analysts with 37 buys; 103 holds, and 13 sells as of today. It has been a good investment over the period of our ownership despite the lousy payout, thanks to better performance and a stronger Korean won, up nearly 9% YTD. We bought in time to get the 2013 dividend.

*Deutsche Bank's ADR conference featured BASF, BASFY, which is also German. We sold it because the chemical giant is losing its edge against US rivals accessing cheaper tight oil and shale gas. Most of the other stocks featured were even hairier.

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