Hard To Say This Is Bearish

Strongest Six Months In A Decade

It is difficult to imagine a new bear market starting when the economy is growing and the technicals are favorable. Tuesday’s GDP report showed the U.S. economy is coming off the strongest six months of growth in a decade. From Bloomberg:

Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, rose at a 3.9 percent annualized rate, up from an initial estimate of 3.5 percent, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 81 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 3.3 percent gain. After the 4.6 percent increase in the second quarter, it marked the biggest back-to-back advance since late 2003.

The Weight Of The Evidence

Outside of GDP, how does the bigger picture look? Things have happened fast over the past four weeks. This week’s stock market video takes a step back and looks at the new evidence that has surfaced in the stock market since the October 15 low.

After you click play, use the button in the lower-right corner of the video player to view in full-screen mode. Hit Esc to exit full-screen mode.

Given the still constructive environment for growth assets, we recently reduced exposure to bonds (IEF) and added (once again) to our equity stake (SPY). Even the strongest rallies experience red days from time-to-time, meaning we have to have realistic expectations in the short-run. However, it is possible the market is just digesting gains and ready for another push higher.

As always, the market and data will guide us if we are willing to wake up each day with a flexible, unbiased, and open mind. 

Disclosure:  This post contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Ciovacco Capital Management. The opinions are subject to ...

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