Home Improvement And Housing Starts

Lowe’s (LOW), the second largest home improvement retailer in the U.S. after Home Depot, reported results for the third quarter before today’s opening bell. The company reported earnings per share of $0.59, in-line with the Estimize consensus, and a penny higher than what Wall Street was expecting, growing 26% YoY. Revenues of $13.7B beat both the Estimize and Wall Street consensus of $13.5B, an increase of 6% from Q3 2013. These results were certainly more welcomed than those from fellow home improvement retailer, Home Depot, whose Q3 earnings release yesterday was a bit murky due to a recent data breach, the impact of which has not been fully realized. Lowe’s results showed that consumers boosted spending on renovations, with same store sales climbing 5.1% for the quarter. Great results caused the company to raise it’s full-year EPS guidance to $2.68 from $2.63, with sales expected to grow 4.5 - 5%.

While U.S. homebuilder sentiments have improved over the past few months, today’s Housing Starts reading was slightly disappointing. Expected to come in at a value of 1,021, it was actually lower at 1,009, a 2.79% decrease from September. When housing starts increase on a MoM basis, it typically signifies builders’ optimism that their new construction will sell, otherwise they wouldn’t build in the first place. We’ll get an additional read on the U.S. housing market tomorrow when Existing Home Sales for October are released.

Another retailer, Target (TGT),  reported results this morning. Initially expected to be one of the dogs among the retailers, Target eked out EPS of $0.54, beating the Estimize consensus by $0.04 and the Street’s estimate by $0.07, but still falling 3.6% YoY. Revenues of $17.7B also surpassed the Estimize and Wall Street number which were both looking for $17.5B. Target was also the victim of a massive data breach last holiday season, but since then has made a huge effort to restore confidence in it’s customers and rebuild its image by offering free shipping on online orders ahead of the holiday shopping season. The ongoing fallout from last year’s data breach totalled $12M($7M net of tax) during the third quarter. The company is looking for Q4 results to be in the ranges of $1.13 - $1.23, excluding data breach related expenses. Full year EPS is expected in a range of $3.15 to $3.25.

How Are We Doing?

Expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth for the third quarter stand at 11.6%. Revenues are anticipated to come in with 4.9% growth. All 10 sectors are anticipated to post positive YoY growth on both the earnings and revenue front.

Leaders

Earnings:

Consumer Discretionary (14.2%). Notable industry: Internet Retailers (25.3%)

Energy (14.3%). Notable industry: Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels (14.8%)

Health Care (13.9%). Notable industry: Biotechnology (45.1%)

Revenues:

Health Care (12.1%). Notable industry: Biotech (39.0%).

Information Technology (7.1%). Notable industry: Software (15.7%)

Laggards

Earnings:

Utilities (2.8%). Notable industry: Gas Utilities (-8.3%).

Telecommunication Services (1.4%): All five companies are within Diversified Telecom Services. Only Verizon posted y­o­y growth.

Revenues:

Energy (1.1%). Notable industry: Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels (­0.4%).

Materials (2.4%). Notable industry: Paper & Forest Products (­-18.3%).

Beat/Miss/Match

Earnings: With 95% of the S&P 500 reporting thus far, 55% have beaten the Estimize consensus, 35% have missed and 10% have met. This is compared to Wall Street estimates, of which 71% of companies have beat on the bottom­-line, 21% have missed and 8% have met.

Revenue: 52% have beaten the Estimize consensus, 48% have missed, and 0% have met. For revenues, 59% of companies have beat the Wall Street estimate, while 41% have missed.

Disclosure: There can be no assurance that the information we considered is accurate or complete, nor can there be any assurance that our assumptions are correct.

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