Jungle Bunnies, Polls, Mercenaries, And Corruption

Our correspondent Chris Loew writes from Japan:

My wife stocked up on household items and got our car serviced in advance of the hike in the consumption tax from 5% to 8%. Many acquaintances timed purchases of cars or major appliances to avoid the tax rise. Front-loading expenses results in contraction later.
The tax exemption for mortgage interest was also recently halved. Wage increases have not kept pace with inflation. The weak yen has brought an increase in fuel prices. So consumers must tighten their belts. I expect consumer durables to tank.

Many US state sales taxes exempt food, but Japan doesn't. Nonetheless, a recent TV report quoted department store execs as saying they are counting on their specialty food sections (usually in the basement of Japanese department stores) to offset reduced sales elsewhere. Perhaps people will load up on cheeses and wines, rather than buying a car or computer. Food is viewed as a defensive sector. But there is already consumer resistance to food price increases, while food companies are being squeezed by higher import costs from the weaker yen. It is hard to expect big profits there.

The best performing companies will be ones with more sales and production outside of Japan.

As Indians line up to vote, most observers expect a victory for the supposedly pro-business Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Narendra Modi. One result has been a boom in Indian stocks and the rupee. The rise, in my opinion, is illusory. The BJP confirmed yesterday that it would ban foreign supermarkets from the $500 bn Indian retail sector, according to Reuters.

Of course this is bad news for global chains. But it is also bad news for Indian households. The BJP said it welcomes foreign direct investment in all sectors that create local jobs, except supermarkets. That's what "free-markets" means in India.

Some 18 months ago, the current Congress government allowed foreign supermarket chains in but then left it to individual states to set conditions. So politically powerful local traders could block global chains like Carrefour or Walmart. Small shopkeepers have clout with the BJP. Having seen improved living standards as big retailers arrived in European countries like France and Portugal to compete with high-priced village shops, I think it outrageous that Indian grocery consumers will not get the same money-saving chances.

Our advertiser BullionVault, which offers a way to own physical gold with low trading and warehousing costs, today reported that it has set up a new US dollar client account with Wells Fargo Bank which will make it easier for customers to deposit money for buying the yellow metal. You can view details at www.bullionvault.com by clicking to it from our www.global-investing.website and then going into US banking details.do on their site. Or you can telephone tollfree to 1-888-908-2858, mentioning that you are a Global Investing reader. For now the awkward procedure with Bank of America I used to transfer money to buy my gold with the British firm will remain in place, says BullionVault's head of customer service, Nittin Seehakoo.

More for paid subscribers from Canada, Israel, Britain, Ireland, the Netherlands, China, Brazil, Russia, Colombia, Singapore, and Mexico. Lots of snippets. I am off to a lunchtime concert.

*In Brazil, every time a poll comes out showing that Dilma Rousseff is not a shoe-in for re-election, the bolsa goes up. Our Vale, miner of iron ore, which has been a political football under the PT govt, is a gainer today.

*Ditto Cosan, grower of sugar and ethanol. Both operate railroads because Brasilia has no money for need infrastructure given its prestige-chasing World Cup and Olympics spending. CZZ

*In Russia, the plan to get some more benefit from Putin's corruption-laden overspending on Sochi winter facilities is being undermined by tourist cancellations, according to NZZ, a Swiss newspaper. Among them is our plan to sail on the Black Sea this summer. We cancelled because we will not be able to visit Sebastopol and Yalta.

*I am more concerned about whether or not Greystone, formerly called Blackwater, is selling mercenary services to Ukraine than whether or not the ping in the India Ocean is from the downed Malaysian Airlines plane. The news is skewed by TV visuals. Given the simultaneous attacks Sunday on 3 different eastern Ukrainian cities, I am sure the uprising was not spontaneous.

*Colombian oil company Ecopetrol declared "force majeur" today as it cannot deliver crude oil to refineries. Last week leftist guerillas cut the Cano Limon-Covenas oil piepline and repairs could not be undertaken because Indian tribes near the blast site objected. This also affects other oil producers in Colombia which is currently holding talks with these very same lefty jungle bunnies in Cuba offering them amnesty and the right to form political parties if they disarm and disband. EC.

*Bad news also from Singapore where shares of Global Logistic Propertiesdropped after it announced a second build-to-suit logistics facility in Japan, this one 37,000 sq meters in Osaka for Trinet Logistics, a Japanese competitor. The site is GLP Kobe Nishi, and our Chris will visit it when he has a chance, living nearby. GBTZF last week announced another deal with a logistics rival in Tokyo. The idea is to offer a strategic location and high specs for specialized distribution, and charge more. But Singpore worries about these deals.

*China regulators issued permits allowing Nokia to sell its devices and services operations to Microsoft without stringent conditions. NOK rose 4.7% in Euroland trading today after the companies said the deal will close this month. The only hold-out now is India which is trying to collect a large tax claim against NOK.

*Electrovaya today delivered prototype lithium-ion batteries to Dongfeng Motors, a large Chinese car-maker, for use in its 2- and 4-door electric vehicles. The 20% improved-capacity battery includes high-density storage cells, a battery management system, and mechanical, thermal, electrical, and electronic sub-assemblies. TFL in Toronto, EFLVF here.

*Allana Potash crowed that it can help harvests of tef and other crops in Ethiopia via a commitment to finance assistance that can pay for: crop management, public-private partnerships, farm coops, fertilizer trials, and developing soil databse systems for the Ethiopian Govt Agricultural Transformation Agency. The know-how could eventually be applied in other African countries which face reduced farm productivity. Ethiopia is the site of ALLRF's huge Danakhil mine which could produce a million metric tonnes of potash annually starting in about 3 years.

*Chicago Bridge & Iron landed a Chevron Lummus jv contract worth over $100 m,n for engineering design and catalyst supply for three new-build refineries in China. Despite its name, CBI is Dutch.

The Financial Times writes today that the way Mallinckrodt will gain enough from its complex merger with Questcor mainly because of a "tax inversion", allowing Questcor to be taxed in Ireland rather than the US. Meanwhile the class action lawyers are active arguing that QCOR's board failed to shop the company around to other potential buyers to get more money. Robbins Arroyo LLP says that while the $86.08/sh price looks good, Oppenheimer has a target price for Questcor of $99 and Piper Jaffray one of $98.

*Despite the analysts' optimism, Paddy Power fell 2.6% today. It is an Irish bookie. PDYPF

*CAE, the marker of flight simulators hit an industry record for sales in FY 2013-4 (to end March), reports Patti the Biotech Maven. It sold 48 Level D full-flight simulators. The latest went to North America, Europe, and India: Southwest Airlines for the Boeing 737-800W; InterGlobe and CAE (a jv) for the Airbus A320; another unnamed North American airline for the same place; and an undisclosed European carrier for the Boeing 777.

*Teva is down on news that it is not necessarily keeping generics off the market while the US Supreme Court works on a ruling on its patent for copaxone.

*Separately, the Israeli generics producer announced that because it was first to file, under FDA rules it would immediately launch a copycat US version of GlaxoSmithKline's lovaza lipid regulatory drug. GSK also has some offsetting good news as The Financial Times argues today that despite being embroiled in another corruption inquiry in Iraq, the sleaze with which drugs are marketed is clearly more widespread than

*In Mexico trading, FUNO 11 rose 2.53% yesterday. That is our Fibra Uno or FBASF, a reaction to the defeat of the management motion to reward itself more generously even for non-independent asset purchases.

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