Large Cap Best And Worst Report
The highest scoring names in large cap from 1 year ago (3/26/2013) returned bps more than the S&P 500. Performance has been led by PCLN up 83%, MYL up 80%, TMO up 65%, DISH up 61%, and YHOO up 61%
- Industrials are the top large cap sector this week.
- Basics jump to above average this week
- The best large cap industry is drillers.
The average large cap score is 58.41, below the four week moving average score of 65.67. The average large cap is trading -10.26% below its 52 week high, 4.07% above its 200 dma, has 3.42 days to cover held short and is expected to post EPS growth of 13.87% next year.
De-risking pushed baskets around this week as managers book recent gains in healthcare and embrace basics. Industrials, basics, and consumer goods score above average. Financials and services score in line. Healthcare, technology, and utilities are below average. We'll be rolling scores to reflect Q2 seasonality next week (see later in today's report for a sneak peek), which may affect leadership.
LG CAP | 3/20/2014 | 3/27/2014 | 4 Week MA | |||
Company Name | Symbol | Sector | INDUSTRY | SCORE | SCORE | SCORE |
BEST | ||||||
Microchip Tech | MCHP | TECHNOLOGY | SEMICONDUCTOR-SPECIALIZED | 115 | 95 | 108.75 |
Omnicare | OCR | SERVICES | DRUG STORES | 85 | 90 | 87.5 |
Transocean Offshore | RIG | BASIC MATERIALS | OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION | 75 | 90 | 80 |
Ameriprise Finl Inc | AMP | FINANCIALS | ASSET MANAGEMENT | 100 | 85 | 97.5 |
Amphenol Corp | APH | TECHNOLOGY | DIVERSIFIED ELECTRONICS | 105 | 85 | 98.75 |
Autozone | AZO | SERVICES | AUTO PARTS STORES | 105 | 85 | 101.25 |
C F Industries Hldngs | CF | BASIC MATERIALS | AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS | 100 | 85 | 98.75 |
Chesapeake Energy | CHK | BASIC MATERIALS | INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS | 70 | 85 | 82.5 |
Continental Resources | CLR | BASIC MATERIALS | OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION | 100 | 85 | 98.75 |
CSX Corp | CSX | SERVICES | RAILROADS | 100 | 85 | 91.25 |
Corning | GLW | TECHNOLOGY | COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT | 100 | 85 | 97.5 |
Hasbro Inc | HAS | CONSUMER GOODS | TOYS & GAMES | 110 | 85 | 102.5 |
J P Morgan | JPM | FINANCIALS | MONEY CENTER BANKS | 75 | 85 | 85 |
Mylan Labs | MYL | HEALTHCARE | DRUGS-GENERIC | 105 | 85 | 101.25 |
Verisign | VRSN | TECHNOLOGY | INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES | 70 | 85 | 81.25 |
A G C O Corp | AGCO | INDUSTRIAL GOODS | FARM & CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY | 65 | 80 | 68.75 |
Allergan | AGN | HEALTHCARE | DRUG MANUFACTURERS | 105 | 80 | 98.75 |
Aon Corp | AON | FINANCIALS | INSURANCE BROKERS | 95 | 80 | 92.5 |
Anadarko Peteroleum | APC | BASIC MATERIALS | INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS | 65 | 80 | 76.25 |
Becton Dickinson | BDX | HEALTHCARE | MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES | 105 | 80 | 97.5 |
Celgene | CELG | HEALTHCARE | BIOTECHNOLOGY | 80 | 80 | 77.5 |
Dupont De Nemours | DD | BASIC MATERIALS | AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS | 95 | 80 | 91.25 |
Walt Disney Company | DIS | SERVICES | ENTERTAINMENT- DIVERSIFIED | 100 | 80 | 96.25 |
Diamond Offshore | DO | BASIC MATERIALS | OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION | 65 | 80 | 70 |
EnCana Corp | ECA | BASIC MATERIALS | INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS | 100 | 80 | 93.75 |
Essex Ppty Trust | ESS | FINANCIALS | REITS | 95 | 80 | 92.5 |
Fossil Inc. | FOSL | CONSUMER GOODS | RECREATIONAL GOODS, OTHER | 65 | 80 | 72.5 |
Federal Realty | FRT | FINANCIALS | REITS | 100 | 80 | 86.25 |
Health Care REIT | HCN | FINANCIALS | REITS | 85 | 80 | 82.5 |
Kansas City Southern | KSU | SERVICES | RAILROADS | 65 | 80 | 70 |
Lincoln Nat'l | LNC | FINANCIALS | LIFE INSURANCE | 95 | 80 | 92.5 |
Lorillard Inc | LO | CONSUMER GOODS | CIGARETTES | 95 | 80 | 93.75 |
NVIDIA Corp. | NVDA | TECHNOLOGY | SEMICONDUCTOR-SPECIALIZED | 95 | 80 | 91.25 |
Owens Illinois | OI | CONSUMER GOODS | PACKAGING & CONTAINERS | 80 | 80 | 86.25 |
Oceaneering Int'l | OII | BASIC MATERIALS | OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION | 70 | 80 | 70 |
Open Text | OTEX | TECHNOLOGY | INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES | 100 | 80 | 95 |
Petsmart Inc | PETM | SERVICES | SPECIALTY RETAIL, OTHER | 80 | 80 | 80 |
Phillips van Heusen | PVH | CONSUMER GOODS | TEXTILES | 65 | 80 | 75 |
Sigma Aldrich | SIAL | HEALTHCARE | SPECIALTY CHEMICALS | 110 | 80 | 102.5 |
Southwestern Energy | SWN | BASIC MATERIALS | INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS | 100 | 80 | 93.75 |
Tractor Supply Co. | TSCO | SERVICES | SPECIALTY RETAIL, OTHER | 75 | 80 | 78.75 |
Burger King | BKW | SERVICES | RESTAURANTS | 100 | 80 | 97.5 |
Tyson Foods | TSN | CONSUMER GOODS | MEAT PRODUCTS | 100 | 80 | 93.75 |
WORST | ||||||
Vodafone | VOD | TECHNOLOGY | WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS | 20 | 20 | 26.25 |
Alnylam Pharma | ALNY | HEALTHCARE | BIOTECHNOLOGY | 55 | 25 | 45 |
Alcatel | ALU | TECHNOLOGY | COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT | 25 | 25 | 37.5 |
Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc | BMRN | HEALTHCARE | BIOTECHNOLOGY | 55 | 25 | 47.5 |
Crown Castle Int'l | CCI | TECHNOLOGY | DIVERSIFIED COMMUNICATION SERVICES | 30 | 25 | 26.25 |
China Mobile (Hong Kong) Ltd | CHL | TECHNOLOGY | WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS | 15 | 25 | 17.5 |
Novartis Ag | NVS | HEALTHCARE | DRUG MANUFACTURERS | 25 | 25 | 32.5 |
The best large cap industry is oil & gas drilling & exploration (RIG, CLR, OII), led by offshore plays. A more favorable patent expiration schedule supports margin at drug stores (OCR, CVS, RAD, WAG). $34 billion loses exclusivity this year, another $66 billion goes off-patent in 2015. Railcar pricing (CSX, KSU, UNP) is supported by industrial production. Total railcar volume is up 1.1% year-to-date through last week. Cigarette (LO, RAI, PM) makers offer upside. Lodging (MAR, H) RevPAR driven recovery should start to shift from room rate/utilization to top line growth tied to capacity adds by the end of the year. Lodging construction spending jumped 48% year-over-year in January.
In basics, buy drilling, ag chemicals (CF, DD), and independent oil & gas (CHK, SWN, ECA, APC). Natural gas in storage last week was 49.4% below last year and 47.9% lower than the five year average. In consumer goods, focus on cigarettes, textiles (PVH, VFC, HBI), and processed & packaged goods (MJN, K). The top financials baskets include REITs (HCN, FRT, ESS), money centers (JPM, RY, PNC), and asset managers (AMP, TROW, BEN). In healthcare, focus on healthcare plans (WLP, AET, CI), and medical appliances (STJ, ISRG, RMD). The top industrials groups are aerospace/defense (TDG, GD, BEAV), and farm & construction machinery (AGCO, DE). At the Farnborough Air Show in 2012 (it's held there in even years) Boeing and Airbus reported $35 billion in firm orders and $21 billion in provisional orders. The 2014 show runs from July 14th through July 20th. In services, buy drug stores, rails, lodging, and department stores (M, KSS). The best technology industries are semi ICs (TSM, SWKS), specialized semi (MCHP, NVDA, XLNX), and communication equipment (GLW, HRS). Semi book-to-bill historically peaks in the second quarter -- plan accordingly.
LG CAP INDUSTRY SCORE BY SECTOR | 3/27/2014 | |
Sector | Industry | SCORE |
BASIC MATERIALS | OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION | 78.75 |
BASIC MATERIALS | AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS | 69.00 |
BASIC MATERIALS | INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS | 68.53 |
BASIC MATERIALS | OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES | 65.00 |
BASIC MATERIALS | CHEMICALS- MAJOR DIVERSIFIED | 60.00 |
BASIC MATERIALS | OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING | 57.50 |
BASIC MATERIALS | MAJOR INTEGRATED OIL AND GAS | 56.25 |
BASIC MATERIALS | STEEL & IRON | 52.86 |
BASIC MATERIALS | INDUSTRIAL METALS & MINERALS | 52.50 |
BASIC MATERIALS | OIL & GAS PIPELINES | 45.00 |
BASIC MATERIALS | GOLD | 37.00 |
CONSUMER GOODS | CIGARETTES | 70.00 |
CONSUMER GOODS | TEXTILES | 62.00 |
CONSUMER GOODS | PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS | 61.88 |
CONSUMER GOODS | FOOD - MAJOR DIVERSIFIED | 60.00 |
CONSUMER GOODS | AUTO PARTS | 59.17 |
CONSUMER GOODS | PERSONAL PRODUCTS | 58.00 |
CONSUMER GOODS | BEVERAGES | 57.22 |
CONSUMER GOODS | AUTO MANUFACTURERS- MAJOR | 45.83 |
FINANCIALS | REITS | 65.71 |
FINANCIALS | MONEY CENTER BANKS | 64.44 |
FINANCIALS | ASSET MANAGEMENT | 64.38 |
FINANCIALS | LIFE INSURANCE | 62.50 |
FINANCIALS | SAVINGS & LOANS | 60.00 |
FINANCIALS | CREDIT SERVICES | 56.88 |
FINANCIALS | PROPERTY & CASUALITY INSURANCE | 55.00 |
FINANCIALS | FOREIGN MONEY CENTER BANKS | 53.00 |
FINANCIALS | INSURANCE BROKERS | 52.50 |
FINANCIALS | REGIONAL BANKS | 52.00 |
FINANCIALS | INVESTMENT BROKERAGE | 47.50 |
HEALTHCARE | HEALTH CARE PLANS | 68.00 |
HEALTHCARE | MEDICAL APPLIANCES & EQUIPMENT | 61.11 |
HEALTHCARE | MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES | 57.78 |
HEALTHCARE | BIOTECHNOLOGY | 52.50 |
HEALTHCARE | DRUG MANUFACTURERS | 51.74 |
INDUSTRIAL GOODS | AEROSPACE/DEFENSE PRODUCTS & SERVICES | 69.50 |
INDUSTRIAL GOODS | FARM & CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY | 61.00 |
INDUSTRIAL GOODS | INDUSTRIAL EQUIPMENT & COMPONENTS | 60.00 |
INDUSTRIAL GOODS | DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY | 57.86 |
SERVICES | DRUG STORES | 73.75 |
SERVICES | RAILROADS | 71.00 |
SERVICES | LODGING | 70.00 |
SERVICES | DEPARTMENT STORES | 68.33 |
SERVICES | RESTAURANTS | 64.00 |
SERVICES | APPAREL STORES | 63.57 |
SERVICES | DISCOUNT, VARIETY STORES | 61.67 |
SERVICES | DRUGS WHOLESALE | 58.33 |
SERVICES | BUSINESS SERVICES | 55.00 |
SERVICES | CATV SYSTEMS | 52.14 |
SERVICES | RESORTS AND CASINOS | 51.67 |
SERVICES | ENTERTAINMENT- DIVERSIFIED | 50.00 |
SERVICES | GROCERY STORES | 48.33 |
SERVICES | AIR DELIVERY & FREIGHT SERVICES | 45.00 |
TECHNOLOGY | SEMICONDUCTOR- INTEGRATED CIRCUITS | 68.75 |
TECHNOLOGY | SEMICONDUCTOR-SPECIALIZED | 66.88 |
TECHNOLOGY | COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT | 60.00 |
TECHNOLOGY | DATA STORAGE DEVICES | 57.50 |
TECHNOLOGY | INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES | 57.50 |
TECHNOLOGY | SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS | 57.50 |
TECHNOLOGY | BUSINESS SOFTWARE & SERVICES | 57.00 |
TECHNOLOGY | INTERNET INFORMATION PROVIDER | 55.00 |
TECHNOLOGY | SEMICONDUCTOR- BROAD LINE | 53.75 |
TECHNOLOGY | DIVERSIFIED COMPUTER SYSTEMS | 53.33 |
TECHNOLOGY | SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS | 53.00 |
TECHNOLOGY | APPLICATION SOFTWARE | 51.67 |
TECHNOLOGY | TECHINICAL & SYSTEM SOFTWARE | 51.67 |
TECHNOLOGY | TELECOM SERVICES - DOMESTIC | 48.33 |
TECHNOLOGY | WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS | 43.75 |
TECHNOLOGY | DIVERSIFIED COMMUNICATION SERVICES | 41.67 |
UTILITIES | DIVERSIFIED UTILITIES | 55.00 |
UTILITIES | ELECTRIC UTILITIES | 54.29 |
UTILITIES | FOREIGN UTILITIES | 45.00 |
None.