Large Cap Best And Worst Report

The highest scoring names in large cap from 1 year ago (3/26/2013) returned bps more than the S&P 500. Performance has been led by PCLN up 83%, MYL up 80%, TMO up 65%, DISH up 61%, and YHOO up 61%

  • Industrials are the top large cap sector this week.
  • Basics jump to above average this week
  • The best large cap industry is drillers.

The average large cap score is 58.41, below the four week moving average score of 65.67. The average large cap is trading -10.26% below its 52 week high, 4.07% above its 200 dma, has 3.42 days to cover held short and is expected to post EPS growth of 13.87% next year.
 
De-risking pushed baskets around this week as managers book recent gains in healthcare and embrace basics. Industrials, basics, and consumer goods score above average.  Financials and services score in line. Healthcare, technology, and utilities are below average. We'll be rolling scores to reflect Q2 seasonality next week (see later in today's report for a sneak peek), which may affect leadership.

LG CAP       3/20/2014 3/27/2014 4 Week MA
Company Name Symbol Sector INDUSTRY SCORE SCORE SCORE
BEST            
Microchip Tech MCHP TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR-SPECIALIZED 115 95 108.75
Omnicare OCR SERVICES DRUG STORES 85 90 87.5
Transocean Offshore RIG BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION 75 90 80
Ameriprise Finl Inc AMP FINANCIALS ASSET MANAGEMENT 100 85 97.5
Amphenol Corp APH TECHNOLOGY DIVERSIFIED ELECTRONICS 105 85 98.75
Autozone AZO SERVICES AUTO PARTS STORES 105 85 101.25
C F Industries Hldngs CF BASIC MATERIALS AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS 100 85 98.75
Chesapeake Energy CHK BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 70 85 82.5
Continental Resources CLR BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION 100 85 98.75
CSX Corp CSX SERVICES RAILROADS 100 85 91.25
Corning GLW TECHNOLOGY COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT 100 85 97.5
Hasbro Inc HAS CONSUMER GOODS TOYS & GAMES 110 85 102.5
J P Morgan JPM FINANCIALS MONEY CENTER BANKS 75 85 85
Mylan Labs MYL HEALTHCARE DRUGS-GENERIC 105 85 101.25
Verisign VRSN TECHNOLOGY INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES 70 85 81.25
A G C O Corp AGCO INDUSTRIAL GOODS FARM & CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY 65 80 68.75
Allergan AGN HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 105 80 98.75
Aon Corp AON FINANCIALS INSURANCE BROKERS 95 80 92.5
Anadarko Peteroleum APC BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 65 80 76.25
Becton Dickinson BDX HEALTHCARE MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES 105 80 97.5
Celgene CELG HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 80 80 77.5
Dupont De Nemours DD BASIC MATERIALS AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS 95 80 91.25
Walt Disney Company DIS SERVICES ENTERTAINMENT- DIVERSIFIED 100 80 96.25
Diamond Offshore DO BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION 65 80 70
EnCana Corp ECA BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 100 80 93.75
Essex Ppty Trust ESS FINANCIALS REITS 95 80 92.5
Fossil Inc. FOSL CONSUMER GOODS RECREATIONAL GOODS, OTHER 65 80 72.5
Federal Realty FRT FINANCIALS REITS 100 80 86.25
Health Care REIT HCN FINANCIALS REITS 85 80 82.5
Kansas City Southern KSU SERVICES RAILROADS 65 80 70
Lincoln Nat'l LNC FINANCIALS LIFE INSURANCE 95 80 92.5
Lorillard Inc LO CONSUMER GOODS CIGARETTES 95 80 93.75
NVIDIA Corp. NVDA TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR-SPECIALIZED 95 80 91.25
Owens Illinois OI CONSUMER GOODS PACKAGING & CONTAINERS 80 80 86.25
Oceaneering Int'l OII BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION 70 80 70
Open Text OTEX TECHNOLOGY INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES 100 80 95
Petsmart Inc PETM SERVICES SPECIALTY RETAIL, OTHER 80 80 80
Phillips van Heusen PVH CONSUMER GOODS TEXTILES 65 80 75
Sigma Aldrich SIAL HEALTHCARE SPECIALTY CHEMICALS 110 80 102.5
Southwestern Energy SWN BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 100 80 93.75
Tractor Supply Co. TSCO SERVICES SPECIALTY RETAIL, OTHER 75 80 78.75
Burger King BKW SERVICES RESTAURANTS 100 80 97.5
Tyson Foods TSN CONSUMER GOODS MEAT PRODUCTS 100 80 93.75
             
WORST            
Vodafone VOD TECHNOLOGY WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS 20 20 26.25
Alnylam Pharma ALNY HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 55 25 45
Alcatel ALU TECHNOLOGY COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT 25 25 37.5
Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc BMRN HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 55 25 47.5
Crown Castle Int'l CCI TECHNOLOGY DIVERSIFIED COMMUNICATION SERVICES 30 25 26.25
China Mobile (Hong Kong) Ltd CHL TECHNOLOGY WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS 15 25 17.5
Novartis Ag NVS HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 25 25 32.5

The best large cap industry is oil & gas drilling & exploration (RIG, CLR, OII), led by offshore plays. A more favorable patent expiration schedule supports margin at drug stores (OCR, CVS, RAD, WAG). $34 billion loses exclusivity this year, another $66 billion goes off-patent in 2015. Railcar pricing (CSX, KSU, UNP) is supported by industrial production. Total railcar volume is up 1.1% year-to-date through last week. Cigarette (LO, RAI, PM) makers offer upside. Lodging (MAR, H) RevPAR driven recovery should start to shift from room rate/utilization to top line growth tied to capacity adds by the end of the year. Lodging construction spending jumped 48% year-over-year in January. 

In basics, buy drilling, ag chemicals (CF, DD), and independent oil & gas (CHK, SWN, ECA, APC). Natural gas in storage last week was 49.4% below last year and 47.9% lower than the five year average. In consumer goods, focus on cigarettes, textiles (PVH, VFC, HBI), and processed & packaged goods (MJN, K). The top financials baskets include REITs (HCN, FRT, ESS), money centers (JPM, RY, PNC), and asset managers (AMP, TROW, BEN). In healthcare, focus on healthcare plans (WLP, AET, CI), and medical appliances (STJ, ISRG, RMD). The top industrials groups are aerospace/defense (TDG, GD, BEAV), and farm & construction machinery (AGCO, DE). At the Farnborough Air Show in 2012 (it's held there in even years) Boeing and Airbus reported $35 billion in firm orders and $21 billion in provisional orders. The 2014 show runs from July 14th through July 20th. In services, buy drug stores, rails, lodging, and department stores (M, KSS). The best technology industries are semi ICs (TSM, SWKS), specialized semi (MCHP, NVDA, XLNX), and communication equipment (GLW, HRS). Semi book-to-bill historically peaks in the second quarter -- plan accordingly.

 

LG CAP INDUSTRY SCORE BY SECTOR   3/27/2014
Sector Industry SCORE
     
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS DRILLING & EXPLORATION 78.75
BASIC MATERIALS AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS 69.00
BASIC MATERIALS INDEPENDENT OIL & GAS 68.53
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES 65.00
BASIC MATERIALS CHEMICALS- MAJOR DIVERSIFIED 60.00
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING 57.50
BASIC MATERIALS MAJOR INTEGRATED OIL AND GAS 56.25
BASIC MATERIALS STEEL & IRON 52.86
BASIC MATERIALS INDUSTRIAL METALS & MINERALS 52.50
BASIC MATERIALS OIL & GAS PIPELINES 45.00
BASIC MATERIALS GOLD 37.00
CONSUMER GOODS CIGARETTES 70.00
CONSUMER GOODS TEXTILES 62.00
CONSUMER GOODS PROCESSED & PACKAGED GOODS 61.88
CONSUMER GOODS FOOD - MAJOR DIVERSIFIED 60.00
CONSUMER GOODS AUTO PARTS 59.17
CONSUMER GOODS PERSONAL PRODUCTS 58.00
CONSUMER GOODS BEVERAGES 57.22
CONSUMER GOODS AUTO MANUFACTURERS- MAJOR 45.83
FINANCIALS REITS 65.71
FINANCIALS MONEY CENTER BANKS 64.44
FINANCIALS ASSET MANAGEMENT 64.38
FINANCIALS LIFE INSURANCE 62.50
FINANCIALS SAVINGS & LOANS 60.00
FINANCIALS CREDIT SERVICES 56.88
FINANCIALS PROPERTY & CASUALITY INSURANCE 55.00
FINANCIALS FOREIGN MONEY CENTER BANKS 53.00
FINANCIALS INSURANCE BROKERS 52.50
FINANCIALS REGIONAL BANKS 52.00
FINANCIALS INVESTMENT BROKERAGE 47.50
HEALTHCARE HEALTH CARE PLANS 68.00
HEALTHCARE MEDICAL APPLIANCES & EQUIPMENT 61.11
HEALTHCARE MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & SUPPLIES 57.78
HEALTHCARE BIOTECHNOLOGY 52.50
HEALTHCARE DRUG MANUFACTURERS 51.74
INDUSTRIAL GOODS AEROSPACE/DEFENSE  PRODUCTS & SERVICES 69.50
INDUSTRIAL GOODS FARM & CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY 61.00
INDUSTRIAL GOODS INDUSTRIAL EQUIPMENT & COMPONENTS 60.00
INDUSTRIAL GOODS DIVERSIFIED MACHINERY 57.86
SERVICES DRUG STORES 73.75
SERVICES RAILROADS 71.00
SERVICES LODGING 70.00
SERVICES DEPARTMENT STORES 68.33
SERVICES RESTAURANTS 64.00
SERVICES APPAREL STORES 63.57
SERVICES DISCOUNT, VARIETY STORES 61.67
SERVICES DRUGS WHOLESALE 58.33
SERVICES BUSINESS SERVICES 55.00
SERVICES CATV SYSTEMS 52.14
SERVICES RESORTS AND CASINOS 51.67
SERVICES ENTERTAINMENT- DIVERSIFIED 50.00
SERVICES GROCERY STORES 48.33
SERVICES AIR DELIVERY & FREIGHT SERVICES 45.00
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR- INTEGRATED CIRCUITS 68.75
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR-SPECIALIZED 66.88
TECHNOLOGY COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT 60.00
TECHNOLOGY DATA STORAGE DEVICES 57.50
TECHNOLOGY INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES 57.50
TECHNOLOGY SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL INSTRUMENTS 57.50
TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS SOFTWARE & SERVICES 57.00
TECHNOLOGY INTERNET INFORMATION PROVIDER 55.00
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR- BROAD LINE 53.75
TECHNOLOGY DIVERSIFIED COMPUTER SYSTEMS 53.33
TECHNOLOGY SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS 53.00
TECHNOLOGY APPLICATION SOFTWARE 51.67
TECHNOLOGY TECHINICAL & SYSTEM SOFTWARE 51.67
TECHNOLOGY TELECOM SERVICES - DOMESTIC 48.33
TECHNOLOGY WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS 43.75
TECHNOLOGY DIVERSIFIED COMMUNICATION SERVICES 41.67
UTILITIES DIVERSIFIED UTILITIES 55.00
UTILITIES ELECTRIC UTILITIES 54.29
UTILITIES FOREIGN UTILITIES 45.00

 

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