Luxemburger Polka

Thanks to our Mudchute Manor address we count as East Enders and were able to visit the Acelor Mittal Orbit, the London version of the Eiffel Tower, at a discount yesterday. The iconic maroon and steel thing sits in the midst of the relics of the London Olympic Games two years ago. Despite the hot weather, the Olympic Pool building was firmly shut. The Olympic Stadium was undergoing major construction work and could not be entered. Balfour Beatty, a British construction firm, was lopping off the top two ranks of seating to reduce the size of the building so it can be the home of the West Ham Football (soccer) Club and be used for rugby matches. Besides cutting about 40% of the seats they were also adding a roof to protect against rain and snow, not needed during the Olympics.

The Queen Elizabeth Park is still a work in progress and will soon have an International Quarter to house financial regulators and their prey. Another project to start up in the autumn is called Manhattan Loft Corp. The vast Olympic site around Stratford will become a new center for something, perhaps feeding customers into the huge Westfield Shopping Mall, although I am not sure the areas will live up to the Manhattan or International names.

The Orbit, about 350 ft high, which we visited with a group of blasé French tourists, is no Tour Eiffel, as they kept remarking. Being located so far from central London, it offers the visitor few glimpses of historic sights. You can see the Gherkin and the Shard and other new skyscrapers. But not St. Paul's or Westminster Abbey or even the Thames. I just made out the old BT TV transmission tower and Battersea Power Station, now a museum.

In fact the older London Eye ferris wheel, which I have ridden, appears to be the better site for viewing the sights. Unfortunately we would have to pay full price and devote an hour to the circuit. My husband has already done it once with his sister so I may have to visit (terrified of course) by myself.

On our way back to Mudchute we happily read a 40-odd-page section in The Evening Standard about the boom in Docklands real estate which seemed to confirm our paper profits on the London pied-à-terre we bought at the turn of the century.

From London I am developing a finer sense of how hard it is to be a central banker. Bank of England Governor, Canadian-born Mark Carney told the world that interest rates would have to rise but then worried that British mortgages (most of which float) would become unaffordable. He sounds more and more like Janet Yellen, another two-handed economist. Pres. Harry Truman once quipped that what he needed was “a one-handed economist” Meanwhile the pound gets driven higher because investors think in fact he wouldn't dare raise yields.

I also got an insight into why the British are so negative about the new European Union President, Jean-Claude Juncker. Before he took over in Brussels, as finance minister and then prime minister of Luxembourg he was the defender of its banking secrecy and tax avoidance, protecting the Grand Duchy from pressures to create sorely-needed Europe-wide regulatory and tax systems or normal minority shareholder protection rules. Britain was forced to impose Common Market rules on its own havens in the Channel Islands, but Luxembourg escaped them at least until now. Juncker may cave because of current scandals and the continued British sniping at him, in my view. More about the Luxemburger Polka below.

The US is a piker on penalties for banking wrongs.. UBS had to post bail at euros 1.1 bn ($1.5 bn) before the Swiss bank's trial for aiding money laundering and tax fraud in France.

More on Luxembourg, Britain, Portugal, Panama, South Korea, Mexico, Ukraine, Canada, Israel, Switzer-, Fin-, and Ireland.

*After my file yesterday, smashing H1 results were reported by Panama's Banco Latino-Americano de Comercio, Bladex or BLX. Its net income hit $44.2 mn, up 16% from H1 2013. However Q2 income fell 5% y/o/y to $20.7 mn, or 12% sequentially, mainly for loan-loss provisioning and reserves, about which BLX is extremely conservation, and problems in its non-core business of managing investment funds, which BLX is exiting.

Overall the key determinant of bank profits, interest income, hit 66 mn in the half, up 19% y/o/y and $33.9 mn in Q2, up 15% y/o/y, mainly thanks to increased spreads between BLX's cost of money and what it charged on its loans. Also good were the increases in fees and commissions from a lower base, up 62% in the half year and 48% in Q2. EPS rose 15% to $1.14 in H1. It declared a flat 35 cents/sh dividend. Panama is where old dollar bills and US autos go to die; it uses the US currency.

Bladex is a multilateral partly private bank with shareholdings by governments and export credit issuers like Ex-Im. I think it would have to issue more shares on the NYSE if the Republicans in the House succeed in shutting Ex-Im despite its strong business history, out of zeal for cutting the role of government. It probably won't happen because Republicans need support from exporting companies which have to match foreign Ex-Im credit terms.

*Nokia Oy rose nearly 8% not merely because of Schadenfreude over the telco costs to Microsoft. NOK sold its cellphone arm earlier this year. NOK Q2 earning came to 6 eurocents, handily beating the consensus forecast of 2 cents. Revenue however came in off 6.7% from last year's Q2, at euros 2.94 bn, missing by 8%.

*Thanks to Neue Zuericher Zeitung I learn that we have an unexpected Ukrainian risk with our New Ireland Fund stake in the Syngenta Swiss agriculture and seed business. It reported yesterday that its sales fell over 2\6% vs H1 2013 because of the crisis in Europe's breadbasket, the black earth farms of Ukraine. It also is a key grower of sunflower seeds for oil. Luckily US sales by the Swiss firm helped make up the shortfall in Ukraine and Russia so the hit to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (a measure of cash-flow) was only 6% in Swissies and 3% in US$s.Thanks to its Swiss incorporation Syngenta can continue to supply hybrid seeds to Ukraine and Russia which are upgrading their agriculture giving Syngenta a reward for sticking with this market. And there will be less US competition from Pioneer in Putin-land.

*We also own shares of the OMX Nordic stock exchange, through our stake in Investor of Sweden, IVSBF. It reported good earnings growth, up 13% y/o/y yesterday, on revenues up 16%. Its most profitable business is non-transaction revenues, up 17% and now accounting for ¾ of its profits. All those dark pools need to get price data, I guess.

*DowJones has noticed that a boardroom fight looms at Teva, which we have reported on for some time. The dissidents will be defeated not on merit, the wire service notes, but because all proxies not voted by American Depositary Receipts owners of TEVA (probably including mine) will be treated as supporting the board's resolutions. About ¾ of Teva shares are in ADR form and this raises real questions about how the Israeli generics giant handles corporate governance. Benny Landa, a Canadian-Israeli entrepreneur and billionaire, is a leader of the dissident camp, who joined Teva's board over enthusiasm over its naming another Canadian-Israeli, Dr Jeremy Levin as CEO, and then was appalled when he was sacked last Oct., has now been joined by US proxy-advisory Glass-Lewis. The 2 board members opposed by Mr. Landa are Joseph Nitzani and Ory Slonim, the former head of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) and a lawyer respectively. He wants to replace them with boarm members with pharma experience. Dr Levin would be too divisive but Teva's former CFO, Dan Suesskind, the Israeli son of a late high school buddy of my late father might do very well as he is popular with ADR owners.

Meanwhile Deutsche Bank has put a buy on Teva.

*Delek Group is suing the Israeli govt Petroleum Commissionaire for denying it the right to continue to explore for oil and gas in the Tamar southwest reservoir. Tamar SW extends marginally into another field, Eran 353, where Delek and its partners could not extend their license which was pulled last Oct. Israel wants to boost competition in offshore exploration while DGRLY and its Tamar partners want to maximize the area covered. Israel is learning how to regulate petrochemical exploration on the job as its experience before the current century was roughly nil.

*Compugen researchers will deliver data on the immune checkpoints its in silico research has discovered at two forthcoming scientific conferences. The Israeli drug research firm will present info on 11 new checkpoints found by its cancer antibody research at the Boston Immunotherapies and Vaccines summit in Boston Aug. 11-14 and on autoimmune checkpoint CGEN-15001 at a Sept 28-30 conference in Amsterdam. Teh cancer talk is by John Hunter PhD and the autoimmune paper on arthritis, multiple sclerosis, and type 1 diabetes by Iris Hecht PhD and via a poster by Joseph Podojil PhD. These conference bring the company's work to the notice of the industry and to specialized investors.

*His Wall St. Journal interview today makes it sound like John Malone will not sell Liberty Media, LBTYA. He wants to invest “as long as I'm on this planet Earth” but just might take “an enormous check” if one was offered when he is ready to retire, settling for lower voting shares. We kept our A shares but sold the lower voting C's from recent takeovers, mainly because I mistrust Malone.

*More sonnets from the Portuguese. Portugal Telecom odds have improved for being repaid for its stupid short-term commercial paper investment in Rioforte, a Luxembourg holding company which has now filed for protection from its creditors. Via a series of Luxembourg bust entities, Rioforte helped the Espirito Santo family of Portugal own its 2nd largest bank, Banco Espirito Santo, which yesterday lured in two new shareholders acting for investors whose funds they manage: Goldman SachInternational with 2.27% and hedge fund David E. Shaw with 2.7%.Citigroup meanwhile slashed its estimates of how much BES could lose from its owners' problems to euros 300 mn to 1.8 bn, vs an earlier estimate of euros 600 mn to 2.3 bn. An orderly Luxembourgeois asset sale of Portuguese, Brazilian, and other goodies in the Hole-y Spirit family's spaghetti plate should permit the bank to refinance without a Lisbon government bailout, and allow PT to be repaid. BES delayed its Q2 result report a week to July 31.

If Luxembourg fails to do its duty, the onus will be on Jean-Claude Juncker, now ED President, bu also former architect of Luxembourg's role as a conduit for complex holding companies avoiding tax, banking regulations, and shareholder oversight through multi-tiered holding companies.

*Canadian bells are ringing. BCE plans to buy out minority shareholders in its regional telco, Bell Aliant for C$3.95 mn which will simplify reporting requirements. The per share price is at a 10% premium to the level before yesterday's announcement. Aliant operates in ''Atlantic Canada'': New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, and Nova Scotia, the latter where our webmaster hangs out. The rating agencies are split: Moody's says it is negative but S&P calls it positive.

*I finally got notification from e-trade of the withdrawal of the ADR for Coca Cola Hellenic, how a Swiss-incorporated company operating in mostly eastern Europe and the 'stans, with its primary listing in London. It also operates in Northern Ireland. I will place the stock into my global trading acct at the brokerage but this is a complex 2-stage process requiring lots of trans-Atlantic telephoning on a recorded line. For security they say.

*Fibra Union bought another prime Mexican property yesterday, the Corporativo La Viga office block which is currently only 60% occupied. With an initial investment of NMP 412.2 mn in cash for the 38 thousand+ sq m property buildings, FBASF will have to spend another NMP 500 mn or so on modernization and décor to boost the occupancy level to generate the potential income of NMP 69 mn.

*Dutch Chicago Bridge & Iron is now above the level it reached before the short-seller attack. CBI is up 55%+ from our cost.

*Capitalist Times's Elliott Gue tipped Shinhan Financial Group of S. Korea for being investor-friendlier than most companies in the Hermit Kingdom, with 5 of its 12 directors representing common stockholders. This, plus its likely 8% return on equity, he says, justifies its higher price to book value of 0.8x than that of other Korean banks. He says to buy at up to $50. We bought SHG at under $43.

*By day end, in US trading, GlaxoSmithKline fell by 6% yesterday to $50.04. It is a yield stock for us. DowJones is warning that there is going to be downward pressure on other pharma giants now.

*A large shareholder may have bailed out of Paddy Power plc yesterday as its shares fell 3.3% to euros 51.73. The Irish share is a fund football and the US ones barely trade. Investor's Chronicle small-cap guru Simon Thompson today tipped32 Red, an AIM listed penny-stock online bookie which would be less likely to be roiled by the big players. But his tips have not panned out well for us.

*Performance Sports Group crossed firmly into double-digit gains with yesterday's close. The NYSE listed firm is our former Bauer Perf Group of Canada, BRRPF, now PFG, first selected by hockey-mad grandson Claude.

*Cognizant Tech was selected by TtansCelerate to develop a collaborative platform for clinical trials. CTSH is a NJ company offering access to Indian IT which I own in my US portfolio. I am testing letting readers know about my holdings so they can do due diligence and decide whether or not to copy my placements.

 

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