Media Earnings Blitz Begins

The markets opened higher this morning, responding positively to the Republican win of the Senate, and better than anticipated ADP jobs numbers. ADP nonfarm payrollscame in at 230k vs. an expectation of 229k. This bodes well for Friday’s U.S. employment for October. Currently the Estimize consensus is calling for nonfarm payrolls of 257k and unemployment to stay the same at 5.9%.

On the earnings front, after yesterday’s closing bell we received disappointing results from TripAdvisor, the last internet retailer from the S&P 500 to report this season. The company reported EPS of $0.48, well below both the Street’s consensus of $0.60 and the Estimize consensus of $0.61. Revenues of $354 slightly beat both measures. The bottom-line miss caused the stock to tank nearly 15% in after-hours trading. A lion’s share of TripAdvisor’s revenues come from click-based advertising, which represented 70% of its revenue in Q3, but CEO Steve Kaufer said this quarter there was “lower than expected Click-based revenue growth.” A bright spot during the quarter was the company’s acquisition of Viator, a service that allows users to book tours and attractions. This should compliment TripAdvisor’s travel product portfolio nicely, and help to increase traffic and user base, and thereby profits. Fellow travel site, Priceline, posted results yesterday, and to investors’ dismay provided lower-than-expected guidance for Europe, reflecting the importance of global growth to the marketplace.

Time Warner kicked off a blitz of media earnings this morning, reporting impressive EPS of $1.22, beating both the Street and Estimize consensus by more than $0.20. Revenues of $6.24B also surpassed expectations. The company saw double-digit increases in subscription revenues for both Turner and HBO, “reflecting the growing strength and appeal of their programming,” according to CEO Jeff Bewkes. CBS and News Corp are scheduled to report after the closing bell, and tomorrow we will get results from the likes of Directv, Cablevision, Scripps, and Disney. Overall, the media industry in the S&P 500 is expected to see profit growth of 6.6% and sales growth of 4.4% for the third quarter.

How Are We Doing?

Expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth for the third quarter stand at 12.1%. Revenues are anticipated to come in with 4.9% growth. All 10 sectors are anticipated to post positive YoY growth on both the earnings and revenue front.

Leaders

Earnings:

Energy (15.0%). Notable industry: Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels (15.4%)

Health Care (14.3%). Notable industry: Biotechnology (45.1%)

Consumer Discretionary (14.2%). Notable industry: Internet Retailers (25.3%).

Revenues:

Health Care (12.1%). Notable industry: Biotech (39.0%).

Information Technology (7.4%). Notable industry: Software (15.7%)

Laggards

Earnings:

Utilities (2.9%). Notable industry: Electric Utilities (0.7%).

Telecommunication Services (2.3%): All five companies are within Diversified Telecom Services. Only Verizon posted y­o­y growth.

Revenues:

Energy (1.2%). Notable industry: Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels (­0.5%).

Materials (2.4%). Notable industry: Paper & Forest Products (­-18.3%).


Beat/Miss/Match

Earnings: With 80% of the S&P 500 reporting thus far, 57% have beaten the Estimize consensus, 32% have missed and 11% have met. This is compared to Wall Street estimates, of which 73% of companies have beat on the bottom­-line, 20% have missed and 7% have met.

Revenue: 53% have beaten the Estimize consensus, 47% have missed, and 0% have met. For revenues, 60% of companies have beat the Wall Street estimate, while 40% have missed.

Disclosure: There can be no assurance that the information we considered is accurate or complete, nor can there be any assurance that our assumptions are correct.

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