Mid Week Update
Over the weekend I mentioned that our core indicators were positive but other indicators were falling. As the week progresses and the market climbs I’m seeing more of the same. Our core indicators are showing more strength and the things I saw showing weakness are mostly getting weaker.
Our core measure of risk is diverging from price after falling from overbought territory. It isn’t recovering even as the market moves higher. This is a pattern that I’ve seen many times before that often precede corrections of 10%. It is a signal of some underlying weakness in the market structure and change of perception by investors.
Next the ratio between the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) and the S&P 500 Index is falling sharply after breaking below its 20 week moving average. More rotation to large caps (which often means safety).
Today was a good up day in the market, but the momentum stocks didn’t participate. This is the most concerning thing on my radar at the moment. If these stocks fail from here (many of them from their 50 and 200 day moving averages) it will be nearly impossible for the market to withstand the strain. Here’s a list of symbols in no particular order that didn’t participate in today’s rally. DIS, GMCR, LNKD, NFLX, ORCL, PCLN, AAPL, BIDU, DDD, GOOG, P, TSLA, TWTR, YELP.
YELP serves as the poster child for the stocks on the verge of a failure near moving averages.
Disclosure: None.