More From Our Man In Japan

This week was a bad day for women journalists. First Le Monde fired its senior editor, Natalie Nougayrède and The New York Times fired its executive editor Jill Abramson.

The NYT is a recidivist since a couple of years ago its publisher Arthur Sulzberger jr fired its CEO, Janet Robinson, and replaced her with a somewhat tainted former BBC director-general, Mark Thompson.

This lady editor-publisher cannot be fired as she owns this newsletter.

 That's just as well as I got quite a lot of flak from readers in faraway lands and the USA for running a negative article about Japan's economic outlook yesterday, from our correspondent there, Chris Loew. As is our usage, it was published without quotation marks, since he is our paid reporter. I ran it because it seemed to show a change in his view on Abenomics and Japanese growth. He know Japan well as a decades-long resident, with a Japanese wife, a Japanese apartment and mortgage, and a Japanese dog, plus two half-Japanese children who keep him alert to hot trends. I know nothing about Japan myself.

Today it was reported that Japanese Q1 growth figures surged to 5.9% annualized, vs 0.3% in the last quarter of 2013. Q1 GNP also beat consensus forecasts of 4.2%.

The boost came from a Japanese shopping spree ahead of a rise in the sales tax April 1, to 8% from 5%. So the boom in consumption was a one-off.

The 4.9% rise in Q1 corporate capital expenditure also reported today may not herald better growth ahead, as Chris attributes it to companies spending money to replace Windows XP which Microsoft dropped. Here is more comment from Chris, our expert. He notes that Japan's trade balance fell to minus yen 10.86 trillion (~$10.9 bn) to replace shut-in nuclear power stations with imports while losing its electronics export edge to China and South Korea. His comments on specific stocks are below for paid subscribers.

Meanwhile Japanese stocks fell despite the seemingly good quarterly GDP growth supporting skeptical Chris.

More from Japan, Canada, Israel, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, The Netherlands, Britain, and Switzerland, including a company report.

*Zurich Financial today reported Q1 profits up 20% (in dollars, its reporting currency) to $1.27 bn thanks to a drop in claims for catastrophes and cost-cutting. Operating profit rose 2%. ZURVY's combined ratio (claims paid out vs costs per dollar earned, on which a lower number is better) fell by 100 bp to 93.9% y/y which is the main reason for the net jump. General insurance gross premiums and operating profits and were flat. Life insurance was the only business growing, with operating profits up 4% on gross premiums up 5%. Return on shareholders' equity reached 16.2% vs prior year 14.1%.

 *Bad and good news from Canada follows. The least bad is that money-losing Air Canada is not after all going to replace its 25 Embraer-190 narrow-bodied aircraft and will be buying 20 more next year. This means it will not be buying Bombardier C series. The airline is suffering from the drop in the loony and booking losses, C$341 mn in Q1, why patriotism is out.

 *Bank of Nova Scotia is not going to buy the remaining 63% of CI Financial it doesn't already own after all. Au contraire: BNS will sell its 37% CI stake worth C$3.8 bn. As a result, CIFAF is reviewing its “capital structure and dividend policy” to buy out BNS. It could cut its divvie, or issue new shares, both of which would hurt us in our newest holding from our neighbours up north.

According to The Globe and Mail, GMP analyst Stephen Boland wrote to clients: “without the high dividend yield” you may see “further pressure on the stock price. CIFAF pays 10 loony cents/mo/sh in dividends or C$320 mn and currently has debt of under C$500 mn. A bad call by Vivian. 

*Now for good news from Canada, on energy storage. IDTechEx today published Electric Vehicles Research, reporting on electric and hybrid marine markets. It expects a tripling of sales to $7.3 bn in the next decade. In addition to storage for electric cars or power stations, electric boats and ferries, small submarines, and hybrid marine energy systems need storage. We are in this market with Electrovaya which has sold a power system to a Norwegian ferry company. Other potential users, the research paper says, are Norwegian offshore supply vessels and ferries in North America which are using electric rather than diesel power. Another use of juice is for military boats or submarines which run quietly with electricity. This note is based on the IDTechEx press release. EFLVF.

 *Pure Techologies is covered by PI Financial and now analysts Jason Zandberg and Sharon Wang have raised itts target price after the $30 mn whopper Miami-Dade contract to C$8.50 from $8.25. “This project is material in size and larger than its typical project.” They credit PPEHF with working with the Miami water dept since 2010 and note that it is the largest contract landed by what they call PUR-Toronto since its 2009 contract with Qadaffi's Libya. The small cap won earlier Miami contracts to monitor concrete water pipe for $5.8 mn in 2012 and $4.8 mn last year. Of course it helps that Canadians love to escape the winder in Florida.

 *Norwegian off-shore is currently off, as oil service workers have walked out in a wage dispute affecting, among others, Schlumberger Ltd. SLB is Dutch.

 *Chris Loew writes that we should 1) not replace DeNA if we succeed in selling it; 2) keep up with Kubota (KUBTY) which he is comfortable with; and 3) hold off on Tsumara (JP:4540) which will benefit from safe-haven flight to the yen (as it imports its ingredient) but may suffer with the general market. He adds: “I can't recommend being out of the market entirely, but I don't want to sugar-coat the outlook.”

 *Chris writes on DeNA (JP:2432): The reason for the failure to execute may be Japan's 10%/day price movement limit. E-trade may not have a category for the limit and are giving a different reason. Transaction limits are based on number of shares not value and haven't changed recently.

Many people may have responded to your sell order so the stock fell over 10% at the opening and was locked all day. Try limit orders at Y1600-1640 to avoid pushing the market down.

I will.

  *Teva's chutzpah was not rewarded as its suit challenging the US FDA to require more tests before allowing generic Copaxone to hit the market was thrown out by a DC Federal court for being “premature”. Teva sought to extend protection of its blockbuster multiple sclerosis drug after it possibly goes off-patent May 24.

Copycat versions are not coming immediately, I think. In a separate case the US Supreme Court will examine patent expiry. If cheaper version are launched they will be “at risk” and TEVA could sue for damages. The Israeli firm's 40 mg dose patent runs till next year.

Teva violated the “be nice to the FDA” rule and would not have been brought under the previous drug-hand CEO who was sacked. The present CEO is a manager and a retired military officer.

 *Delek Group has sold for $276 mn on the secondary market (plus a possible green shoe option of a further $41.4 mn) of Delek USA, a non-consolidate sub. It sold ~half its stake, now down to 9.8% to finance Israeli offshore gas development.

 *Bavarian Nordic will present at the ASCO Chicago cancer annual papers on its combination immuno-therapy candidate MVA-BN-HER-2 which combined immune checkpoint inhibitors with pox-virus based immunotherapy. BVNKF of Denmark says results show that “anti-cancer immune response is augmented and accelerated” by the combination with antigen-specific CD8 T-cells 90-fold in the test tube. The checkpoint inhibitors amplify response after the immunotherapy stimulats the immune system to attack the cancer. In some cases the tumor was 30 to 90% infiltrated, and even wiped out. BVNKF seeks to move to trials if it can find a partnres. It will also present data on its Prostvac immunization against preostate cancer. BVNKF (or BAVA) is Danish.

 *Galapagos, the Belgian drug discovery group, will hold an R&D day in NY featuring its Dutch CEO, Onno Van de Stolpe on June 17, alas at 8 am. Under Belgian law, GLPYY no longer can publish interim quarterly updates and these have had to be removed from its website; semi-annual is still allowed and will be published August 8. I think I have been unfair in assuming that the reason for a Dutch re-listing is that it is the CEO's country: it is because of the ban on Belgian quarterly reports.

 *In the end I was able to tender my Raven Rus shares via E-trade on a non-guaranteed basis, since they waived the $30 restructuring fee. You get 85 pence for tendering one share of every 28 you own. I did it mainly as a test. RUS trades on the LSE AIM.

 *GlaxoSmithKline was rated overweight by Morgan Stanley yesterday. The stock barely budged on the Chinese bribery news.

 *Fund notes:

A new ETF, Merk Gold Trust, OUNZ, will launch tomorrow. It will allow shares to be taken up in the form of physical gold by retail investors, not just institutions as is the case with SPDR Gold Trust, GLD. We recommend GLD and offer a link to own physical gold via an ad our website for using Bullionvault in London.

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