On China And Small Caps

As the world awaits the outcome of the stand-off in Crimea, I thought it might be useful to look at the huge country on other side of the globe, China. Here are some things that happened there is the past few days:

Premier Li Keqiang in a long-awaited closing speech after the People's National Congress played down the risks to China's growth and outlook of bad loans and over-indebted corporations. But he warned that there could bond defaults as the government moved to regulate the financial sector.

The price of Château Lafite vintage Bordeaux continues to fall as Chinese oligarchs react to warnings to reduce conspicuous consumption of their favorite tipple.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority concluded that Swiss bank traders from UBSmanipulated the "HIBOR" interest rate of the local dollar-linked Hong Kong currency, revealed by internal chat messages from 2006-9.

Daimler Benz issued the first foreign panda loans for Chinese investors from a non-bank. A panda loan raises money in renminbi for a foreign company. Daimler borrowed RMB 500 mn this morning.

China suspended mobile phone payment systems and virtual credit cards offered by archrivals Alibaba and Tencent to customers who use barcodes (called QR symbols) to buy stuff. The People's Bank of China, the central bank, says non-bank payments systems are too risky to be left unregulated. This affects two companies in our portfolio.

Illumina Inc, a US medical devices share I own thanks to Patti the biotech maven, sold an advanced HiSeq X10 gene sequencing system to Wuxi Pharma Tech (WX, an NYSE-listed Chinese pharma company incorporated in the Cayman Islands).

DeNova Homes will open a new housing community in Lathrop, California with solar roofing as the standard feature. Each roof will provide 1.5 kiloWatts unless buyers upgrade for higher output. The solar roofing panels are made in China by a non-Chinese firm in our portfolio.

The Economist Weekly Insights examined how Shanghai's Free Trade Zone, which it says is "ready for take-off", fits in China's trade liberalization policy.

Chinese and other regional investors are buying more Australian dollar bonds and more Japanese Yen. And it has implications for India, now viewed by Nomuraas the least politically-risky emerging market about to hold elections. Compared emerging market risks, the Japanese brokerage concluded that the "comparative study produced one clear standout: India." "It is the only country where Nomura overweights equities and is also bullish on the currency and local currency (rupee) government bonds. We disagree as subscribers can read below.

Of course there is a message for Vladimir Putin in these tidbits of news. The world is integrated and going it alone may have unintended consequences for Mother Russia.

More on these tidbits and news from Hong Kong, Australia, India, South Africa, The Netherlands, Israel, Canada, Finland, Britain, Panama, and Ireland, plus reports from companies we own in Jordan and Canada. And another argument for small caps based on some of these examples. And a stock sale in Sweden.

*China's ban on mobile phone shopping hit our Tencent shares hard, as they are off nearly 15% in two days (first before the announced crackdown, and then after.) It also affects South Africa's Naspers, NPSNY which owns 30% of TCTZF. The other player, Alibaba, is not yet listed, but its leading shareholdersYahoo! and Japan's Softbank are also down on the news. It will list in NY rather than Hong Kong. It also hit the affordable luxury market, beneficiary of Chinese on-line and cellphone shopping.

*The DeNova Homes California solar roofs were manufactured by Canadian Solar, CSIQ.

*The problem with India is that political risk is not confined to elections. Today the Indian Supreme Court ordered Nokia to deposit 35 bn rupees ($573 mn) as a tax guarantee before it may transfer its largest Indian mobile phone factory to Microsoft. The plant is in Chennai (formerly Madras; another indicator of political risk) and the tax inspectorate has demanded a share in NOK's alleged profits.

*However Dr. Reddy's Pharma, an easy passage to India, is up over 2.5% in trading today. RDY is a proxy for the country for some lazy institutional investors. More on this below.

*Australian bond markets attracted of foreign cash with an oversubscribed A$7 bn (US$6.3 bn) sovereign sale. Westpac, an Oz bank, told Bloomberg it sold more A$ bonds to foreigners than any time since Oct. 2011.

We are present through the heavy Kangaroo coloration of Aberdeen Asia Pacific Income Fund which is ~40% in Australian sovereign debt. FAX offers a nice yield advantage and, in my view, a possible further currency payback if China continues to buy raw materials Down Under. The Aussie dollar rose in Sydney trading to 90.21 US cents yesterday, up from its average YTD of 89.29 US cents. Last year it fell 14%, giving it a big area to make up.

*Canada's pipeline inspection minnow, Pure Technologies, reported revenues up 29% in 2014 on which EBITDA cash flow (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) rose 142%. The EBITDA margin was 21%. Before you get too excited, remember this is a mini-cap: revenues hit C$60.9 mn (excluding deferred equipment shipments in 2012); EBITDA hit $12.9 mn. Profits actually fell 60% to $2.1 mn because of a goodwill impairment loss and non-repeat of 2012 tax credits.

In Q4 revenues rose 14% 14% to C$17.2 mn mainly because of much higher equipment sales, and 6% growth in its main business of inspection services. Its Q4 profits fell too, by 2/3, to $1.8 mn because of a price adjustments and impairment of a prior acquisition.

Now some good news. It doubled the length of oil pipeline it inspected, to 7000 kilometers; it repaid all debt so there is none left.Its working capital rose 12% to C%75.2 mn of which $41.4 mn was in cold cash. And PPEHF inaugurated a dividend, 3 loony cents/quarter mainly because its monitoring business is producing predictable forward earnings.

The first divvie ever from Pure will wing its way to us April 15 on condition we were shareholders Mar. 31. Half the dividend only is eligible under Canadian income tax rules; what happens south of the border is unknown.

*Hikma Pharma rose 6.19% in London trading yesterday. Today will be light because Arabs are celebrating their Sabbath. Friday is a good day to buy Israeli or Jordanian shares because the local markets are closed. Sunday is good too if you can trade in Tel Aviv or Dubai.

HKMPY reported revenues rose 23% in 2013 to $.1365 bn from docycycline sales and underlying growth and its operating margin soared to 30.38% from 17.5% because of improved operations. This in turn boosted profits to shareholders by 128% (adjusted) to $274 mn and upped EPS by 111% to $1.076/sh.

The noise about injectables is overdone as revenues from this sector actually accounted for only 39% of sales last year, compared to 42% in 2012, despite growth in Europe Injectables in the USA for Lyme disease (where Hikma filled the supply gap) rose to 68% of the total vs 63% in 2012. This is not the kind of level that presents a threat to Hikma going forward. However, the US now is neck and neck with the Middle East and North Africa in sales, 46% vs 47%.

Hikma is also boosting its branded lines where revenues rose 5% to $554 mn, or 8% on a constant currency basis. Branded promotions have held by profitablity while increasing volumes, which should pay off in future years.

A new joint venture with Sheikh Mohammed Hussein Ali Amoudi's MDROC group will take Hikma into sub-Saharan Africa, with a new plant and distribution network covering Ethiopia.

Hikma's Jordan plants have won US FDA approval to produce 4 new generic compounds, bringing the total to 12. It also has remedied the US plant in Eatontown (PA) and awaits word from the FDA regulators after an inspection last month. If all goes well, it will bring on new products adding to the dermatology and transdermal lines sold in the US since 2013.

Despite the likely loss of some doxycycline sales this year, HKMPY expects revenues in 2014 to exceed $1.7 bm and operating margins to remain at 25%, down from 30.3% last year. It issued a regular dividend of 20 cents/sh (up 25% which, Inch'allah, will be repeated) plus a special dividend of 7 cents (which doesn't imply that it will be repeated.)

*Teva was upgraded by both JP Morgan Securities and Morgan Stanley today from underweight to neutral and from neutral to overweight respectively. JPM has abandoned its bearish outlook for the Israeli firm now setting the target price at $49, not far from the current level, and moreover calling $49 "conservative." It likes the ~30% conversion rate of multiple sclerosis patients to 3x/week Copaxone, which has longer patent protection than the current daily regimen which loses it in April. It also likes the new CEO taste for deal-making and cost saving. It says Teva is trading at a discount to its pharma peers.

*GlaxoSmithKline reported that its lung disease drug Anoro Ellipta combined with one from California's Theravance produced positive results in phase III trials against chronic obstructive pulmonary disease when compared to other GSK drugs (seretide or Advair diskus). Anoro is a likely replacement for GSK's blockbuster Advair which has lost patent protection but accounted for 1/5 of the British pharma firm's sales last year.

*Two of our companies are getting together. Banco Latino Americano de Comercio, Bladex or BLX, developing its underwriting business, was co-lead- manager with Banco Santander and Japan's Mizuho Bank in a $60 mn 3-yr "club deal" to SAN's Peru sub, Banco Santander Peru, which needs US dollars for its local baking business est. in 2007. We do not own Mizuho. BLX of Panama was the sole administrative agent as well.

*Covidien plc of Ireland today launched a mesh for use repairing hernias with laparoscopic surgery. Called symbotex, it is being sold in the US market where other laparoscopic mesh products have suffered reputation loss after failures, admitted not for hernia repair.

*The bellwether Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey internet stock, Yandex, is fluctuating wildly. It is the easiest way to trade the crisis. I bought more YNDX too soon.

*Meanwhile Raven Rus (RUS:LSE) is down only 25 British pence from the price I paid, because it is a harder sell. In fact real estate is a more dangerous holding in Russia than internet technology, and being British is more dangerous than being Dutch. Who would ever have thought that this is another argument for obscure small caps like the ones we research?

*Your editor sold her Ratos AB at $9.36/sh. Our buy of this Swedish holding company invested in small caps was "premature" according to FH from Scandinavia.

 

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