You win some and you lose some. Its activist government seems to have won some measure of protection for research, production, and employment in France by taking a 20% stake alongside GE in Alsthom.

However all the pressure Paris could wield did not save BNP-Paribas for a record fine of ~$9-10 bn for its Swiss sub violating US sanctions against Iran, Sudan, and Cuba in 2007-9. The fine will wipe out BNP profits for 2014 and hurt 2015 as well. Moreover, under French law, the bank does not get to take foreign fines off the earnings on which it is taxed. Perhaps the French will change the tax law.

I must confess that I am uncertain about whether or not the market is toppy. I noted yesterday that some observers, notably Mark Hulbert, editor of Hulbert's Financial Digest, thinks that the spate of mergers and acquisitions is a signal of a stock market ahead of itself, based on what happened in 7 years ago. Of course the situation is different now, however, because everyone remembers the selloff, and so there is still plenty of uninvested money on the sidelines. Much of it belongs to the younger baby-boomer generation which so far has avoided stocks. Moreover, the argument for equities remains compelling in this extremely low interest-rate environment.

But then too the summer is upon us and it is very often a time of down markets. And there are baddies about: front-running high-speed traders, company insiders trading against the shareholders they are supposed to be working for, pump-and-dump scams, widely-disseminated misleading short-seller reports and equally cruddy “research” posted by pretend-neutral writers who have been paid to post.

So how do I play the market as we are about to go overseas for 6 weeks?

I took a coward's way out, buying UVXY at a ridiculously low price of $27.13. This is the Ultra VIX short-term futures ETF which seeks results double the daily performance of the “fear gauge”, the S&P VIX NAV.

Since this has nothing to do with global-investing (the S&P 500 shares are USA) I am sharing it with everyone.

Tomorrow's blog will be late because I am attending a mid-year conference with projections for the rest of the year presented by Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.

More follows from Canada, South Africa, China, plus a political trifecta: Israel, India, and, mostly, Irelandl.

*One pretend-neutral report on Electrovaya (EFLVF) posted last week onwww.seekingalpha.com, which has become a center for a lot of stock manipulation. It was written by an EFLVF board-member, hardly an objective observer. The penny stock is now falling back as the investor-relations push runs out of steam. The money-losing family-controlled Canada company owns the patents on a method of producing lithium-ion super-polymer batteries without toxic and polluting run-off which can cause birth defects.

I tipped the stock before the boom-boom boys got going and will not sell it just because they are at work. EFL (as it is known in Canada) is also presenting at various conferences and trade shows including one in Amsterdam (Electric & Hybrid Marine World Expo) starting today. Electrovaya batteries are being used to replace diesel in Norwegian ferry transport. I found this stock because it did a jv with Canadian Solar, CSIQ for utility scalable battery storage systems. Today EFLVF lost 4.77% to $1.259, up 22% from our entry point. I'm not selling and may buy more when the IR campaign ends.

*UBS cut Naspers to neutral from buy at 2 am (EST) today. However, a day after it published meh FY results, NPSNY is up over 2%. Blame “Lex” in The Financial Times who pointed out, what I wrote yesterday, that Naspers' stake in China's Tencent (TCTZY) is worth $47 bn. The FT columnist however also valued other Naspers' holdings like mail.ruand its Indian on-line ticket sub and its Emirates e-retail arm, all of which I did not take into account in my rush to file yesterday. Lex concluded that Naspers internet is equivalent to its stock trading price. That means you get for free the fast-growing African pay-TV and print media assets, the $2.6 bn spent on emerging market assets in the past 5 years, and the so-far unprofitable forays into Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe.

Harry Geisel, who recommended the stock, comments: Naspers has as good a chance as any making it big in tomorrow's digital e-commerce universe. I would neither buy nor sell at the current price. To buy this incredible company, use dollar-cost averaging which the price stabilizes. Even companies of the future need to take hits once in a while to prepare for it, at least if they keep honest books.

*There is more speculation abut the Tencent vs Alibaba dispute over on-line World Cup betting I reported on yesterday. They are blaming each other.

TCTZF's mobile betting site QQ Lottery either refused or was not allowed to place bets coming via the Alipay payments system. Alipay is a sub of Alibaba and China Construction Bank. Tencent may have been anxious to boost its competing on-line payment processor, Tenpay. Or it may have been a tech glitch. Or it may have been China imposing exchange controls on a hefty capital outflow. Or it may have been Alibaba favoring Taobao, its larger on-line bookie.

*You might think this is an argument for Paddy Power plc moving into Chinese on-line betting from Australia, where it is active. But no. HSBC (a bank active in Hong Kong where it actually prints paper money on behalf of the government) has sold enough shares of PDYPF so it is below the 6% level at which it must report on its stake to the Dublin Stock Exchange. Paddy is an institutional football whose ADR barely blips. I recently doubled up, which I don't post in the tables because it would hurt my performance. Paddy which is a clean company should not be confused with other US on-line contenders like PokerStars which are being blocked by US states for past brushes with the law. More on Ireland below.

*Delek Group last night signed to sell its 46% stake in Bark Capital to the majority shareholder in the derivatives-trading business for NIS 237 mn. Delek bought the stake 7 years ago for NIS 24 mn so this is near what Peter Lynch would have called a “10-bagger” for Yitzhak Tshuva's firm. DGRLY is selling lots of assets to go it alone in developing the offshore Leviathan gasfield.

*New Ireland Fund wants to have a steady-eddie distribution, no longer based on actual dividends earned or capital gains to try to cut the fund's discount from NAV. The board voted on this proposal June 13. As we reported, the initial percentage payout will be an 8% annual dividend starting October 31 pending SEC approvals. Part of the payout will be return of capital which is not taxed.

Long term capital gains can only be distributed once a year by closed-end funds (CEFs) under current SEC rules. To give people more frequent capital gains will require an SEC exemptive relief agreement for interim payments of long-term capital gains.

IRL does not plan to return part of their paid-in capital in quarterly payouts to shareholders which could then be offset by an annual tax-free payment as return of capital.

In my view, the capital gains initiative is quixotic. Since 2008 IRL has paid out zero in long or short term capital gains. Its payout after 2008 was pure dividend income. The last time it had any capital gains to shareholders was in 2007. I am not sure why the managers are seeking a tough SEC exemption.

One reason may be that investment dividend income net of foreign taxes paid, at $633.9 mn, is lower than the fees the managers collect, not including any interest for borrowing to buy more shares (as CEFs can do but IRL does not do.) Total expenses in Q3 hit $649.5 mn, more than the dividends earned.

So goosing up the numbers with interim realized capital gains which hit $6.8 mn in Q3 might help the share price. (There are also unrealized capital gains, not counted because the stock prices may fall next quarter. But with SEC permission IRL may be tempted toward more short-term trading.)

IRL is managed by Kleinwort Benson Investors International which has no other US CEFs. KB is successor to Allied Irish Bank which got into trouble during the global financial crisis.

KB's expenses are high at 2.05% of the funds under management particularly since there are no major outstanding loans to the fund (whose interest payments are normally counted as expenses.) These are pure fund management expenses.

Another reason to distribute gains more frequently is that this is a rather concentrated fund, mainly because there aren't that many great stocks in Ireland, a small country. Diversification even to meet the prospectus' relatively liberal rules has resulted in some tricks like counting Ryannair and its ADRs as if they are two different companies, which is nonsense. KB's UK funds have much greater diversification in their portfolios.

Another reason to distribute gains more frequently may be the small and weird Irish market which distorts GNP data downward. Ireland is home to many major aircraft leasing companies which create hefty inflows for Irish imports and capital spending, mostly fictional as the planes never go to Ireland. It is also home to pharmaceutical companies of which we have spoken elsewhere. The real Irish drug manufacturing firms churn out products which are falling off the proverbial patent cliff.

However real GNP impact is overstated because Ireland will be paying less profit repatriations to the overseas parent company. So getting GNP numbers is hard.

Given these peculiarities, IRL managers look at other metrics like retail sales, the purchasing manager index, and lower unemployment matter more than at official GNP data. However official inflation is miniscule and business credit demand remains depressed, both factors supporting the flat GNP figures Dublin is producing.

Whatever is going on in the Emerald Isle it is not growth fueled by excessive easy credit or even government deficits, which are below the EU target at 7.2% of GDP. The central bank and private sector growth estimates for the year are ~2% with strong capex at 11% and finally a revival of consumer confidence and spending, if modest.

Ireland in Q3 (to April 30) grew its equity prices in euros more or less in parallel with the pricing of the S&P 500, but there is a boost from the Euro both in Q3 and past two quarterly performance. Ryannair, the favorite stock of the fund's managers, is up 11.4% in Q3; Paddy, my fave, is actually down 1%.

The best performers are in Emerald Isle specialties: Total Produce up 22.2%; Origin Enterprises plc (agronomy and farm tech and services) up 18.8%; and Swiss incorporatedAryzta which produces baked goods and made acquisitions in both Canada (Pineridge Bakeries) and the US (Cloverhill Bakery) up 16.8%.

Other country stocks in the IRL portfolio are Kerry Group (dairy) and Smurfit Kappa(wood and paper), and foodmakers C&C Group and Glanbia plc. This is not Celtic Tiger territory; it is farm and forest stuff.

Note that Aryzta is saving Irish taxes with a Swiss incorporation just as some US firms save US taxes by going Irish. Apart from the Swiss holding co, IRL also hold a chunk of Cie de St-Gobain, a French glass and building materials firm; and Severn Trent, a British electric ute.

Down on the farm Ireland is no longer a tax haven or particularly cheap. We are holding on for now.

*A tech company is breaking the Indian trend to allowing on-line proxy voting, being encouraged by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. Infosys, under new management, will not allow e-voting. INFY was recently added to the portfolio.