Weekly Investment Report: Best Stock Buys

By Todd Campbell
Tuesday, April 22, 2014 5:44 AM EDT

Top scoring weekly returns:  Buy and Hold 1 Year

History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” Mark Twain

Previously, I included a chart breaking out April's historical returns by trading day. The chart, which averaged returns by trading day for the past decade, showed returns in April tend to struggle ahead of paying Uncle Sam. I've updated the chart to also show how April is playing out this year, and as Mr. Twain opined, history does indeed rhyme.

The best scoring sector across our 1,800 stock universe remains utilities. Basic materials has also moved above average in the past week (see later in this report).
Industrial goods and consumer goods score in line with the average universe score.

Healthcare, technology, services, and financials score below average. In healthcare and technology, managers should concentrate on mid and large cap. In services, focus on small cap. Consumer discretionary faces seasonal headwinds through summertime.



The following chart breaks out score by sector and market cap.
 

This next chart shows four, eight, and 12 week moving averages for our weekly scores. Typically, significant lows have occurred when scores have neared 50; although trading around those periods has been very volatile with yaw.
 


Utilities

The best scoring sector remains utilities, which benefit from historical seasonal tailwinds during the shoulder months ahead of summer demand. Since marginal pricing is based on natural gas, and natural gas tends to rally over the next two months (read on to see the natural gas chart), expectations for spot electricity market prices benefit. Total electricity production, and retail sales, moved higher through winter thanks to cold weather, prompting the EIA to forecast total electricity production growth of 1.8% in 2014. Watch how this impacts coal too, given higher natural gas prices have been supporting a shift back to coal based production and utility stockpiles are much lower than last year.
 

Basic Materials

The following chart shows the average monthly returns for the ^XNG by month over the past 10 years.  April historically kicks off a rally in natural gas that runs through June -- position accordingly (and don't forget to trim overweights back in June).




Top Scoring by Market Cap

LG CAP   4/17/2014 4 Week MA MID CAP   4/17/2014 4 Week MA
Symbol Sector SCORE SCORE Symbol Sector SCORE SCORE
BEST       BEST      
EQT UTILITIES 105 95 FTR TECHNOLOGY 105 91.25
K CONSUMER GOODS 105 91.25 HUBG SERVICES 100 77.5
APH TECHNOLOGY 100 97.5 PNY UTILITIES 100 88.75
BKW SERVICES 100 96.25 TFX HEALTHCARE 100 93.75
ECA BASIC MATERIALS 100 95 AHL FINANCIALS 95 71.25
EIX UTILITIES 100 90 ARLP BASIC MATERIALS 95 87.5
EW HEALTHCARE 100 91.25 CRZO BASIC MATERIALS 95 88.75
GT CONSUMER GOODS 100 80 GMED HEALTHCARE 95 88.75
MRK HEALTHCARE 100 88.75 QCOR HEALTHCARE 95 80
NEE UTILITIES 100 92.5 R SERVICES 95 81.25
PNR INDUSTRIAL GOODS 100 88.75 TCO FINANCIALS 95 73.75
WEC UTILITIES 100 90 AER SERVICES 90 81.25
AVB FINANCIALS 95 87.5 FLEX TECHNOLOGY 90 82.5
CLB BASIC MATERIALS 95 91.25 NEU BASIC MATERIALS 90 76.25
DVA HEALTHCARE 95 87.5 PDS BASIC MATERIALS 90 83.75
EMN BASIC MATERIALS 95 88.75 WIN TECHNOLOGY 90 75
EOG BASIC MATERIALS 95 85 AAN SERVICES 85 80
ETR UTILITIES 95 78.75 AVA UTILITIES 85 77.5
GD INDUSTRIAL GOODS 95 91.25 CAVM TECHNOLOGY 85 86.25
HAL BASIC MATERIALS 95 88.75 CMP BASIC MATERIALS 85 75
IDXX HEALTHCARE 95 87.5 DEI FINANCIALS 85 77.5
ILMN HEALTHCARE 95 90 HTLD SERVICES 85 86.25
LLY HEALTHCARE 95 81.25 NFX BASIC MATERIALS 85 76.25
MCHP TECHNOLOGY 95 96.25 NJR UTILITIES 85 77.5
ORLY SERVICES 95 90 PTEN BASIC MATERIALS 85 78.75
RAI CONSUMER GOODS 95 87.5 RES BASIC MATERIALS 85 73.75
SCG UTILITIES 95 86.25 TRN SERVICES 85 78.75
TSN CONSUMER GOODS 95 92.5 TXI INDUSTRIAL GOODS 85 73.75
UA CONSUMER GOODS 95 82.5 GCO SERVICES 80 81.25
WFT BASIC MATERIALS 95 88.75 KNX SERVICES 80 72.5
XEL UTILITIES 95 87.5 KRC FINANCIALS 80 77.5
AZO SERVICES 90 88.75 LFUS INDUSTRIAL GOODS 80 71.25
BF.B CONSUMER GOODS 90 83.75 LTM SERVICES 80 60
CCJ BASIC MATERIALS 90 78.75 POL BASIC MATERIALS 80 72.5
CLR BASIC MATERIALS 90 88.75 PZZA SERVICES 80 76.25
CPT FINANCIALS 90 83.75 UHAL SERVICES 80 62.5
CVS SERVICES 90 87.5 UPL BASIC MATERIALS 80 82.5
DGX HEALTHCARE 90 63.75        
DIS SERVICES 90 88.75        
DOV INDUSTRIAL GOODS 90 82.5        
DTV TECHNOLOGY 90 83.75        
GMCR CONSUMER GOODS 90 83.75        
INTC TECHNOLOGY 90 76.25        
LLL SERVICES 90 86.25        
LO CONSUMER GOODS 90 88.75        
MDU INDUSTRIAL GOODS 90 87.5        
PEG UTILITIES 90 85        
PPL UTILITIES 90 82.5        
PWR INDUSTRIAL GOODS 90 82.5        
RRC BASIC MATERIALS 90 76.25        
SLG FINANCIALS 90 87.5        
STZ CONSUMER GOODS 90 78.75        
TDG INDUSTRIAL GOODS 90 90        
SMALL CAP   4/17/2014 4 Week MA ADRS   4/14/2014 4 Week MA
Symbol Sector SCORE SCORE Symbol COUNTRY SCORE SCORE
BEST       BEST      
DXPE SERVICES 105 80 GOLD South Africa 90 73.75
EXAM SERVICES 100 91.25 NGG United Kingdom 90 83.75
GB HEALTHCARE 100 85 AZN United Kingdom 85 82.50
ARTC HEALTHCARE 95 83.75 CIB Colombia 85 73.75
BDBD CONSUMER GOODS 95 87.5 NVO Denmark 85 86.25
ECOL INDUSTRIAL GOODS 95 81.25 SPRD China 85 85.00
SWHC CONSUMER GOODS 95 88.75 ARCAY Netherlands 80 60.00
AMSG HEALTHCARE 90 75 ASMI Netherlands 80 77.50
MED SERVICES 90 76.25 CTRP China 80 58.75
VASC HEALTHCARE 90 90 DDAIF Germany 80 75.00
ALIM HEALTHCARE 85 81.25 KONG China 80 82.50
ANEN TECHNOLOGY 85 72.5 OMAB México 80 73.75
CVCO INDUSTRIAL GOODS 85 76.25 RYAAY Ireland 80 81.25
DIOD TECHNOLOGY 85 87.5 SIG Bermuda 80 81.25
EPL BASIC MATERIALS 85 78.75 UGP Brazil 80 71.25
HWAY HEALTHCARE 85 75 BSAC Chile 75 52.50
PMC SERVICES 85 77.5 BTI United Kingdom 75 63.75
SIMO TECHNOLOGY 85 73.75 CISG China 75 71.25
AMRI HEALTHCARE 80 75 ENI Chile 75 53.75
BSTC HEALTHCARE 80 77.5 EOC Chile 75 55.00
DMND CONSUMER GOODS 80 76.25 GSOL Bermuda 75 81.25
GBX SERVICES 80 76.25 IBA México 75 67.50
JAKK CONSUMER GOODS 80 73.75 KEP Korea 75 70.00
KONG SERVICES 80 72.5 NVS Switzerland 75 60.00
MPWR TECHNOLOGY 80 77.5 PVD Chile 75 56.25
MRTN SERVICES 80 72.5 SNP China 75 77.50
MTOR CONSUMER GOODS 80 73.75 TEO Argentina 75 55.00
OSG SERVICES 80 65 TSM Taiwan 75 73.75
SAIA SERVICES 80 75        
WTI BASIC MATERIALS 80 55

None.

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