Why Taxes And Margin Pressures Won’t Stop Walgreen’s Earnings Momentum On Tuesday

Walgreens WAG is set to report earnings for its fourth fiscal quarter of 2014 before the opening bell on Tuesday, September 30. Last month Walgreens abandoned its plans for a tax inversion and lowered its earnings guidance accordingly, sending shares tumbling.

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(Graph above from ChartIQ Visual Earnings)

In August Walgreens announced that it will go forward with its plans to acquire European pharmacy group Alliance Boots. To the surprise and dismay of shareholders Walgreens disclosed that it will not be using the merger to shift its headquarters overseas to reduce its tax burden.

Tax inversions have become a widespread practice for US corporations. Companies have been moving their home offices abroad to partially reduce costs incurred by the US’s 35% corporate income tax rate. Even many nations traditionally thought of as high tax countries have significantly lower taxation rates. In one example Burger King is in an ongoing battle to merge with Canadian coffee chain Tim Horton’s for its own tax inversion purposes, defying a crackdown on the practice by the US government.

The United States Treasury’s latest rules look to strip many of the tax benefits that inversions have provided in the past. The tax battle between corporate America and the government is an ongoing game of cat and mouse that’s been running for hundreds of years. After all the United States is a country founded in part because of a rejection against excessive taxation. Walgreens appears to have bowed to government pressure opposing an inversion for now, but that doesn’t mean its tax war is over. If there’s a will to reduce taxes, armies of corporate tax professionals will find a way.

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Buy side and independent contributing analysts on Estimize expect Walgreen’s earnings to jump 8% from the same quarter of last year to 79 cents per share. Meanwhile Wall Street analysts are only forecasting a profit increase of a penny per share to 74 cents.

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A few weeks ago Rite Aid RAD gave its quarterly earnings report, announcing strong profits, but lowering guidance. Rite Aid signaled a slowdown for the remainder of the year, cutting its fiscal 2015 earnings forecast from $0.30 to $0.40 per share to between $0.22 and $0.33. Rite Aid blamed a delay in generic drug launches and lower generic drug margins for the expected downturn.

In Walgreen’s last earnings call the company acknowledged similar gross margin concerns related to generic drug sales. This pressure in addition to Walgreen’s indefinite suspension of its inversion plans have lead to a significant decrease in bottom line expectations over time.

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Although the remainder of the year may be more bleak, contributing analysts on Estimize are seem to have taken note of Rite Aid’s fruitful quarter and are predicting healthy results from Walgreens on Tuesday.

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The Estimize community is forecasting that Walgreens will maintain its year over year top line growth rate of 6%. Contributing analysts on Estimize also expect earnings to grow by 8%, compared to Wall Street’s prediction of just a 1% improvement. Independent research from Deutsche Bank and Rice University has proven that the Estimize consensus which comes from investors is more representative of the market’s true expectations. With that being said, although a slowdown for the remainder of the year is possible, analysts are setting the bar high for Walgreens on Tuesday.

Disclosure: None.

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