Zeltiq (ZLTQ) Is Growing Into Their Valuation

We've paid some attention and even owned ZLTQ at one time as a way to play into the desires of people to improve their appearance. It's a proven market. Zeltiq reports earnings tonight and so far the company has executed well. Revenue estimates have increased steadily since their IPO and follow-on offering.

However, we took a little time to update our IV model and note that the current share price already reflects well-above-consensus growth and a dramatic improvement in operating margins. It suggests that investors at these prices need to do their homework and be quite sure that the ZLTQ razor/blade model is really going to pay off and that adoption rates are not only steady but accelerating. We've got no solid intelligence on either side of that. About 10% of the shares are sold short, so some investors are betting on a slowdown or at least some bumps in adoption and commercial success.

We also plan to do some work on Sientra which is marketing now. (The Sientra IPO roadshow slides are already available.) We may also revisit Revance (RVNC), which had a strong IPO on promising new uses for botox but has since retreated with much of the emerging growth stock market. 

For now, here is our IV on ZLTQ. The ZLTQ IPO Roadshow slides are also available. 
 

Disclosure:  We do not have any vested interest in the shares of this stock at the time of writing and publication. We may however take a position post publication and are not under any ...

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