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Slightly Left of Center Economics Blog
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Real State Per Capita Income
The Bureau of Economic Analysis has been working on creating state and metro cost of living indices for several years and they have just published a new set of them that can be used to create real per capita income comparisons between states.
Recovery In Europe?
Greece has returned to the bond market, issuing $4.2 billion of five-year bonds at an interest rate of 4.95%. The government’s ability to borrow again is a “reward” for posting a surplus on its primary budget (although the accounting that produced the surplus has been questioned).
Is The Fisher Effect Stable Or Unstable?
Low inflation in an atmosphere of low nominal interest rates brings up the issue of the Fisher Effect. Here is the long run Fisher equation for a “steady-state” nominal interest rate…
The Dangerous Logic Of The Steady-State Fisher Effect
Noah Smith brought up the issue of the long run Fisher effect. Yet, he wants to see micro-foundation models. “Specifically, what I’d be interested to see is for someone to find some micro-foundations for the Neo-Fisherite result that don’t depend on fiscal policy reaction functions.”
2 Snippets To Watch… World Trade & Productivity
Less global trade will create both the domestic traction and the domestic incentives to redistribute income. Productivity growth in the US has been slow for 3 years. It will eventually rise again but only as effective demand rises.
Low Interest Rates And Low Inflation At Full Employment
How low can you go? No… this is not a post about Limbo. It is a post about low interest rates, low inflation, and economic growth.
Everything You Need To Know About Tax Freedom Day®
Monday, April 21, was 2014 Tax Freedom Day®, according to the Tax Foundation. The Tax Foundation is not exactly known for unbiased research, and its promotion of Tax Freedom Day® is no exception.
Speeding Toward Inequality
If you were a passenger in a car speeding toward a cliff, you would scream at the lunatic driver to steer away or slow down. The car is our economy. The cliff is inequality. Inequality is a disaster for society.
Bifurcated Monetary Expansion And Low Inflation…
Low inflation continues to be a concern in Europe and the US, especially in Europe. Central bankers project that inflation will rise as the economy gets closer and closer to full employment. Yet, what is behind low inflation?
For Once My Forecasts Concering Forecasts Weren’t False
This note discusses 40 numbers, forecasts CPI inflation over the following 6 and 12 months made in June and in December of 2004 through 2013.
Repeat After Me: The American Tax System Is Hardly Progressive At All
The latest numbers on 2014 taxes as share of income are out, and they’re saying pretty the same thing as last year: Above about $80K a year in income, the American tax system is not really progressive. Like, at all:
Inflation Expectations In The USA
Inflation expectations are not anchored. A simple regression model fits both the median Livingston Survey respondent’s expected CPI inflation and five year TIPS break evens quite well, and fits 20 year breakevens fairly well.
Health Care Spending Spikes: Why?
Recent data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) show that during the last three months of 2013 spending on health care rose at an annual rate of 5.3% The trend continued this year, with spending climbing 6.2%, on a year-over-year basis in January, and 6.7% in February,
Speaking Of Jimmy Carter And Energy
Carter’s approach to dealing with energy did not consist only with eliminating the insane regulation keeping US crude oil prices below world crude oil prices. Totally aside from (and opposite too) freeing the market, he also subsidized potential new sources of energy.
Graph To Watch For Wage Inflation Pressures
As unemployment declines and the labor market tightens up, many expect wages to rise. Then as wages rise, inflation has a chance to perk up again. But I want to show a graph that I will be watching in order to determine if inflation will truly respond to rising labor income.
Private Ownership Of Public Infrastructure… A Doom Of Inequality
The movement has started for private funds to own public infrastructure. This is the entrenchment of inequality, which will be very hard to reverse. So why do I fear private ownership of public infrastructure?
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