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Failure To Deflate: Flat Consumer Prices Only Slightly Help Real Wages, Sales
Changes in the inflation rate are usually all about the price of gasoline. Not in October. Although gas prices fell -6.4% (compared with a decline of -5.0% a year ago), unlike one year ago net consumer price failed to decline, instead remaining flat.
Top-Down Approach Is Not Working… Go Bottom-Up
Economics is full of ideas for fiscal & monetary policies. But these policies are Top-down approaches. They work through investment and the financial system.
The Fournier Transform
On health care, we needed a market-driven plan that decreases the percentage of uninsured Americans without convoluting the U.S. health care system.
So, You Want A Pipeline? Jobs?
In the month of October there are 46 spills reported, well or pipeline.
Tax Haven Benefits Are Not Investment Incentives
What, then, is an investment incentive? I define it as a subsidy to affect the location of an investment.
Dealing With The Fallout From U.S. Policies
Changes in economic volatility, as measured by the VIX, are the “dominant driver of capital flows to emerging markets” during periods of global financial stress.
Hones Abe
Japan is now in a recession by the standard definition of two quarters of declining GDP in a row.
What’s With US GDP ? DeLong Politely Critiques Tett And I Sneer
HBS alumni… asked to explain why America’s economic growth has been so dismal. The most hated culprit was the political machine.
Unemployment By Education
Although education matters for the unemployment rate, it doesn’t appear to matter as far as finding new employment.
Visualizing The Various Paths Of Interest Rates & Inflation
Let’s go beyond the issue of the Fisher Effect and visualize the whole issue of nominal interest rates, real rates and inflation. The Fisher Effect is only a part of the whole issue.
Inflation Is Falling Even In China
Core inflation is low in China… 1.4%. Inflation is always pretty low in China due to weak labor share and weak domestic demand.
Revisiting The Intricacies Of The Fisher Effect To See Inflation More Clearly
This video discusses the case for what many of us are projecting now: that the Fed rate will not be able to rise next year, nor even in 2016. What will happen to inflation? Video length 12:19.
John Cochrane… Hero Of Us Neo-Fisherites
How inflation will move as the Fed starts to raise their nominal Fed rate.
New View Of Effective Demand To Challenge Top Economists
3rd quarter Non-farm Business Sector Labor Share data came out today… 97.34 (2009 = 100). Think of labor share as real unit labor costs, since unit labor costs = labor share * inflation. Labor share is much lower than it was in 2009.
Do Negative Real Rates Return To Their Natural Level
Real rates are currently negative. Normally the real rate returns to its natural level. Will the real rate rise to its natural level in this business cycle?
Debate Renewed For Us Neo-Fisherites
If inflation falls, the real rate will rise. If inflation rises, the real rate will fall.
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