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Speeding Toward Inequality
If you were a passenger in a car speeding toward a cliff, you would scream at the lunatic driver to steer away or slow down. The car is our economy. The cliff is inequality. Inequality is a disaster for society.
Bifurcated Monetary Expansion And Low Inflation…
Low inflation continues to be a concern in Europe and the US, especially in Europe. Central bankers project that inflation will rise as the economy gets closer and closer to full employment. Yet, what is behind low inflation?
For Once My Forecasts Concering Forecasts Weren’t False
This note discusses 40 numbers, forecasts CPI inflation over the following 6 and 12 months made in June and in December of 2004 through 2013.
Repeat After Me: The American Tax System Is Hardly Progressive At All
The latest numbers on 2014 taxes as share of income are out, and they’re saying pretty the same thing as last year: Above about $80K a year in income, the American tax system is not really progressive. Like, at all:
Inflation Expectations In The USA
Inflation expectations are not anchored. A simple regression model fits both the median Livingston Survey respondent’s expected CPI inflation and five year TIPS break evens quite well, and fits 20 year breakevens fairly well.
Health Care Spending Spikes: Why?
Recent data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) show that during the last three months of 2013 spending on health care rose at an annual rate of 5.3% The trend continued this year, with spending climbing 6.2%, on a year-over-year basis in January, and 6.7% in February,
Speaking Of Jimmy Carter And Energy
Carter’s approach to dealing with energy did not consist only with eliminating the insane regulation keeping US crude oil prices below world crude oil prices. Totally aside from (and opposite too) freeing the market, he also subsidized potential new sources of energy.
Graph To Watch For Wage Inflation Pressures
As unemployment declines and the labor market tightens up, many expect wages to rise. Then as wages rise, inflation has a chance to perk up again. But I want to show a graph that I will be watching in order to determine if inflation will truly respond to rising labor income.
Private Ownership Of Public Infrastructure… A Doom Of Inequality
The movement has started for private funds to own public infrastructure. This is the entrenchment of inequality, which will be very hard to reverse. So why do I fear private ownership of public infrastructure?
Surprise! CBO Estimates Lower Expense For Obamacare
CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) have updated their estimates of the budgetary effects of the provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) that relate to health insurance coverage. Relative to their previous projections made in February 2014, CBO and JCT now estimate that the ACA’s coverage provisions will result in lower net costs to the federal government.
ALEC: Destroying The American Economy, One State At A Time
The American Legislative Exchange Council — which authors ultra-conservative legislation and promulgates it to state legislatures nationwide — has a little index measure of states’ “competitiveness,” which supposedly results in greater prosperity for those states that rank highly.
Wage Inflation And Expected Price Inflation
I noted that an expectations un-augmented Phillips curve fits data from the past two decades rather well. Here is an even simpler illustration of the point that lagged price inflation has not correlated with wage inflation for the past two decades.
What’s Happening With The Phillips Curve?
Paul Krugman notes that it is standard practice to estimate an accelerationist Phillips curve in which the change in inflation is related to unemployment. To get to the punch line and cut to the chase, this post concludes that Krugman is right.
Scott Sumner Thinks Volcker Recession Was Unintended… Really?
Yesterday I wrote that causing a recession to correct policy mistakes would reflect the medical wisdom of re-breaking a bone in order to set it correctly. Yes, there is pain in re-breaking a bone. Yes, the patient screams. But the patient is better off in the long-run. I said people would think I was crazy, and Scott Sumner thinks I am crazy.
Christina Romer & Not Fearing An Economic Correction Of Mistakes
A talk given by Christina Romer was very good. (Posted by Mark Thoma) She said many practical things about economic downturns. She loved to refer back to the Great Depression.
Why It Doesn't Matter How Many Obamacare Enrolless Were Uninsured Last Year
Charles Gaba, the enrollment guru who has been tracking Obamacare sign-ups since October, now estimates that by April 15, some 17 million Americans will have purchased their own insurance policies either in the Obamacare Exchanges (8 million) or off-Exchange (9 million) But how many of them were uninsured and how many were simply replacing policies that the Affordable Care Act (ACA) had forced insurers to cancel?
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