Kris Andersen Blog | Investors Nuts For Brazil, Retail, Steel, Dollars | TalkMarkets
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Dr. Kris Andersen has been managing money for over twenty years as a private investor and portfolio manager. Combining her love of cooking with her expertise in the financial markets, Dr. Kris developed StockMarketCookBook.com, a website featuring easy to follow financial ‘recipes’ ...more

Investors Nuts For Brazil, Retail, Steel, Dollars

Date: Tuesday, August 26, 2014 5:34 PM EDT

 

It was touch and go for the S&P 500 (SPX) going into the close: Would it or wouldn't it close above the 2000 mark? As the bell on the NYSE rung, the SPX was just shy of the mark, but after the final trades were tallied, it managed to push above it, marking an important event (in the psychological sense).

Earlier, it wasn't clear if it could actually make it above 2000. Sure, the rest of the major averages were advancing with the one exception of the Dow Transports (DTX). Out of all of them, this one is the most important as it is considered to be the leader in market direction. If you look at its chart for the past six days, it's been trading in a very tight range while the other major averages were advancing. Now this can be viewed in both a bullish and bearish light.

On the bullish side, the argument can be that the DTX is digesting gains before making its next push higher. On the bearish side, it could be the signal that it's about to poop out. Market internals aren't much help in swaying the argument to one side or the other except for perhaps one thing: VIX volatility, as measured by the $VVIX, has been moving sideways while the VIX has been declining. Under normal conditions, they should be moving in concert with each other and this situation represents a divergence. Whenever there's a divergence, a change in direction is typically (but not always) indicated.

Market direction aside, investors are still finding new places to park their money. Here's a quick and dirty run-down of some of the more notable market action:
1. Retail: Today, the Retail etf (XRT) broke out of a nine month base. Helping to push the industry group up to a new yearly high were retailers Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $46) andCato (CATO, $36), and apparel maker G-III (GIII, $84) which all broke out to new highs themselves. Personally, I've never been a big fan of retail and Abercrombie in particular, but I must say that its chart looks particularly strong.
2. Brazil: Brazilian stocks took a huge hit earlier this year but they've come roaring back with a vengeance. The Brazil etf (BRF, $51.98) is testing major resistance at $52. A break above that could propel it to its next area of congestion in the $54-$56 range. If it can move above that, it will likely make a run for its previous high at $70. Going along for the ride are two Brazilian banks: Banco de Brasil (BDORY, $14) and Banco Bradesco (BBD, $17). Both broke out to new highs, both sport small dividends (under 1% yields), and both have very low valuations (P/E's around 6).
3. Steel Producers: Steel has been going strong for some time now. The Steel etf (SLX, $50)took a break at the end of July but has been advancing steadily since. It rose above the $50 mark today and is close to retesting its previous high near $50.50. A move above that would be a green flag for the industry. Stocks that continue to outperform in this area include AK Steel (AKS, $11.19) and US Steel (X, $39.49). US Steel was mentioned in our *Blue Plate Specials* Subscriber Notes on 8/5 as a potential long play and is up over 13% since.
4. US dollar: The US dollar is on a roll while foreign currencies tumble. Mentioned to Subscribers on 7/30 was a long dollar/short euro pairs trade for Forex traders. This was based on a breakout in the dollar and a concomitant breakdown in the euro. Since then, the trade has done very well and today's move in the US dollar etn (UUP) above $22 followed by a slide in the Euro etn (FXE) below $130 is indicating that this trade is still hot

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