Steven Hansen | TalkMarkets | Page 22
Managing Partner at Econintersect LLC
Contributor's Links: Global Economic Intsersection
Steven Hansen, Publisher and Co-founder of Econintersect, is an international business and industrial consultant specializing in turning around troubled business units; consults to governments to optimize process flows; and provides economic indicator analysis based on unadjusted data and process ...more

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February 2014 ISM Manufacturing Survey At High End Of Expectations
The ISM Manufacturing survey for February 2014 indicated moderate manufacturing expansion. The New Orders sub-index which historically correlates to the economy improved even more significantly than the prime index.
January 2014 Real Personal Income And Expenditures Above Expectations
Real Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) grew while Real Disposable Personal Income (DPI) contracted.
21 February 2014: ECRI's WLI Again Degrades
ECRI's WLI Growth Index declined but remains in positive territory. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months.
Pending Home Sales Data Bad – Blamed On Weather, Credit, Affordability
The pending home sales index for January 2014 was released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) today, and our analysis suggests that February 2014 existing home sales again may not be good.
Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Growth Continues In February 2014
Of the five regional surveys released to date for February, three show manufacturing expansion.
Rail Week Ending 22 February 2014: Rail Recovers Somewhat
Econintersect: Week 8 of 2014 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) grew according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The rolling averages are mixed, and the 4 week rolling average is contracting compared to the rolling average one year ago.
22 February 2014 Unemployment Claims 4 Week Average Unchanged
The market was expecting the weekly intial unemployment claims at 330,000 to 345,000 (consensus 335,000) vs the 348,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average marginally degraded, moving from338,250 (reported last week as 338,500) to 338,250.
Durable Goods Again Soft In January 2014
The headlines say the durable goods new orders declined in January – headline growth is down 3 of the last 4 months. Most sectors were soft lead by a weak civilian aircraft sector.
Case-Shiller Home Prices December 2013: Strongest Part Of Recovery May Be Over
The non-seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) for December 2013 (released today) declined slightly but showed the 19th consecutive monthly year-over-year gain in housing prices since the end of the housing stimulus in 2010.
Trucking Tonnage Falls Due To Weather In January 2014
Econintersect: The American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) trucking index dropped 4.3% in January 2014 after falling a revised 0.8% in December (originally reported as 0.6% growth.
CFNAI Super Index Shows Economy Slowed, But Remains Above Normal Growth Trend Rate In January 2014
The economy was growing in January 2014 based on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3 month moving (3MA) average. This was the fifth month in a row that the economy was expanding above the historical trend rate of growth.
The USA Economy Is Slowing
The economy appears to be decelerating. Consider that the advance estimate 4Q2013 GDP was 3.2% growth while GDP growth in the previous quarter (3Q2013) was 4.1%. Currently the headlines of components used to compile 1Q2014 GDP are not pretty.
January 2014 Existing Home Sales Bad
The headlines for existing home sales say that sales growth fell in January month-over-month – and declined year-over-year. Our analysis agrees. The three month rolling averages are still declining demonstrating how soft the data is.
Rail Week Ending 15 February 2014: Rail Now Contracting Year-To-Date
Econintersect: Week 7 of 2014 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) contracted according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data.
January 2014 Sea Container Counts Mixed
Export and Import container counts were mixed in January 2014. However, rolling averages were accelerating despite this mixed data.
January 2014 Leading Economic Index: Economy Will Remain Resilient
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. improved again in January to 99.5 (2004 = 100, previous month reading = a downwardly revised 99.2). The index growth has been noisy but remains in a growth trend.
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