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Independent Analyst
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Pater Tenebrarum is an independent analyst and economist/social theorist. He has been involved with financial markets in various capacities for 31 years and currently writes economic and market analyses for independent research organizations and a European hedge fund consultancy as well as being ...more

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Complacency In The Stock Market Remains Rife
Whenever the stock market begins to correct from a position that exhibits what John Hussman calls the “overvalued, overbought and over-bullish” syndrome, it is worth studying the reaction of market participants to the decline.
Banking Accidents Waiting To Happen
The recent EM currency crisis may bring European bank worries to the fore again. The total exposure of these banks to emerging markets amounts to well over $3 trillion. Euro zone banks have some 70% of their capital and reserves at risk. The average of loans outstanding that have become non-performing in past EM crises amounted to 40% of all loans
An Update On Wobbly EM Currencies
There have been small moves in EM currencies on Monday, but charts comparing the Argentine peso, the South African Rand, and the Turkish lira to the U.S. dollar are ominous.
Gold Sector In January: Most Hated Sector, Best Performer
Pater Tenebrarum explains why he is optimistic about gold, despite the near universal negative gold sentiment in the media.
Japan: How The Nikkei Writes The News
The Japan news published by the Yomiuri Shimbun reports that Shinzo Abe's presentation did after all get some attention at Davos, much of it evidently misguided...
What Is Happening In The Ukraine?
The current unrest in the Ukraine is very reminiscent of the failed 'Orange Revolution' that pushed current pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovich when Western favorite, Viktor Yushchenko, won the 2004 election. However, Yanukovitch is likely robbing his country blind.
Central Banks Are Anachronistic Institutions
Jim Grant Is calling a spade a spade. Grant has always been a vocal critic of the Fed, and several recent comments of his in an interview he gave to CNBC are worth highlighting...
Turkey’s Central Bank Fires Big Bertha
Turkey is trying to restore some credibility to its faltering currency. In defiance of political pressure, it has raised rates at a special meeting. And they didn't waste time with baby step rate hikes either...
Janet Yellen’s Impossible Task Part I
When you have a job as a central planner: everybody else thinks only their plan is the right one, and they are trying to get you to implement it. Apparently it hasn't yet occurred to anyone that central planning simply does not work.
Janet Yellen’s Impossible Task Part II
When you have a job as a central planner: everybody else thinks only their plan is the right one, and they are trying to get you to implement it. Apparently it hasn't yet occurred to anyone that central planning simply does not work.
Comment On The FOMC Decision And Market Reaction
After releasing FOMC statements throughout the year that looked like carbon copies of each other, the December statement boasted quite a few differences.
The Search For Improbable Scenarios
The jitters that caused ripples across global stock markets last week stem from a redeployment of cash between emerging markets and the next investment opportunity. As currencies in emerging markets such as Argentina, Turkey and South Africa continue to falter, the U.S. stock market could be the next best option for investors.
Currency Massacre In Emerging Markets
Both Venezuela and Argentina have a problem with their foreign exchange reserves. In both cases it stems from trying to keep up the pretense that their currencies are worth more than they really are.
The Fed Will Save The Planet
As Robert Murphy pointed out last week, yet another example of 'mission creep' at the Fed has recently surfaced. As readers are probably aware, the Fed is one of the bureaucracies that are constantly rewarded for failure.
Gold Stocks – Still Looking Good
In the gold sector one frequently encounters what we refer to as either bullish or bearish 'hooks'. Before explaining this concept further, we should note here that we actually fell for one of those after it had seemingly become slightly less reliable for a while.
US Stock Market – James Stack Grows Cautious
A Noteworthy Warning: James Stack, president of Stack Investment Research, warns subscribers to his newsletter, InvesTech Research, that the 5-year-old bull is "aging rapidly".
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