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Independent Analyst
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Pater Tenebrarum is an independent analyst and economist/social theorist. He has been involved with financial markets in various capacities for 31 years and currently writes economic and market analyses for independent research organizations and a European hedge fund consultancy as well as being ...more

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Are The Swiss Going Crazy?
Let us look at the economic side of things first: for one thing, the law of supply and demand is not magically suspended when it comes to the price of labor. Price it too high, and not the entire supply will be taken up. Rising unemployment inevitably results.
Consumer Confidence Implodes In Japan
As a little addendum to our recent ritual lambasting of Abenomics, here are the latest news on Japan's consumer confidence – the reading, mind, is from March – before the introduction of the higher sales tax:
The Stock Market Bounces – What To Watch Out For
The market has begun to bounce from a natural support level: lateral support in the NDX (as well as the Nasdaq Composite and the RUT) that has served as a support and resistance level on several previous occasions. Momentum and growth names are outperforming 'safe' stocks in Wednesday's trading, the trend toward safety is not undermined yet by this short term counter-trend move.
Absurdity Of The Week: Germany Could Be Fined By The EU For Its Trade Surplus
There must be something in the water. After the world was forced to endure the almost physically painful nonsense emanating from various Japanese officials on the alleged benefits of its clearly failing monetary debasement program, it is the EU's turn to prove it is run by a bunch of economically illiterate nincompoops.
The Abenomics Surprises Just Keep Coming …
Our idea that the Nikkei writes the news remains uncontested by any contrary developments. It still does. Since its peak at 16320 points on the final trading day of 2013, the Nikkei has lost 14.7% – and so it is no wonder that the 'miracle of Abenomics' continues to get the bad press it so richly deserves.
The Greek Bond Sale Stunt
Last week the Greek government celebrated its return to the bond market, selling 3 billion euros in five-year bonds at a yield of 4.95 percent. Reportedly there was great demand for the issue, which should be no surprise given the current propensity of investors to buy all sorts of junk debt as long as it yields more than just a smidgen.
Nasdaq Suffers Worst Day Since 2011
It could well be that the divergences between various market sectors and indexes we have recently pointed out will in hindsight be recognized as having constituted a major warning signal.
Scottish Independence – An Establishment Nightmare
It is absolutely certain that not only the UK establishment, but the political elite of all of Europe is looking forward to Scotland's independence referendum with great trepidation.
Big Surprise: The Fed Is Dovish
It has recently been argued that the market has been buffeted by alternately being led to believe that administered interest rates may rise sooner than expected (Ms. Yellen hinted in her March press conference at '6 months after QE ends'), or later than expected (she corrected herself on a subsequent occasion).
Insubordinate ‘Maverick’ Orban Wins Another Election
We would normally be inclined to like Hungary's Viktor Orban, not least because he is widely despised by the EU nomenklatura in Brussels.
Europe, Russia And The Gas Question
Even Germany's vice chancellor Sigmar Gabriel realizes that there is no alternative to Russian gas for Germany, at least not in the near future. It should be noted to this that Germany's energy policy has driven energy prices to the very edge of what the population and industry can still handle.
Dive In Momentum Stocks Resumes
On Friday momentum stocks sold off with some verve again after the release of the payrolls data. Since the latter were actually quite close to the expected number, they cannot really have been the trigger of the sell-off (in other words, it would probably have happened regardless of the data).
Draghi Rebukes Lagarde And Is Weidmann Going Soft?
The most amusing moment of Mr. Draghi's press conference after yesterday's ECB board meeting, was when he proceeded to put down the IMF's Ms. Lagarde who had only one day prior to the meeting admonished the ECB to step up its money printing efforts so as to counter allegedly 'too low' inflation.
The European Open Mouth Committee – Real And Psychological Factors
Many people are beginning to wonder these days how long the ECB's trick of promising action instead of delivering action will continue to 'work' (allow us to interpose here, that we believe the less they do, the better it is).
Gold Timers Are Net Short – Not Bearish Enough?
Mark Hulbert publishes sentiment data on stocks and gold, which aggregate the recommendations of market newsletter writers.
Lagarde Worries About ‘Not Enough Inflation’ Again
We have previously written extensively about the absurd worrying about 'inflation being too low' in Europe, even while millions are out of work and forced to live from their savings or meager hand-outs from their governments.
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