James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 5
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more

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A New Labor Market Indicator From The Fed
Does LMCI offer deeper insight beyond what’s already available in the usual suspects, such as nonfarm payrolls and initial jobless claims?
Macro-Markets Risk Index Positive But Near 2014 Low
The US economic trend remained positive through early October, albeit at readings near the lower range posted so far this year, according to a markets-based estimate of macro conditions.
Does A New Eurozone Recession Threaten US Growth?
It’s a perfect score for Germany’s economic reports so far this week—perfectly negative. In two days we’ve seen two macro updates for Europe’s biggest economy and in both cases the numbers were deeply disappointing.
Risk Premia Forecasts | 6 October 2014
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) dipped moderately in September vs. the previous month.
A Strong Recovery For Payrolls In September
The growth in private-sector payrolls rebounded strongly in September, according to today’s update from the US Labor Department.
Jobless Claims Closing In On 14-Year Low
Today’s claims data certainly reflects a healthy trend. Indeed, the four-week average (dotted red line in chart below) is again moving lower.
US Nonfarm Private Payrolls: September 2014 Preview
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase 208,000 in tomorrow’s September update from the Labor Department.
ADP: Private-Sector Payrolls Rise 213k In September
Private-sector employment continued to rise at a moderate pace in September, according to this morning’s ADP Employment Report.
Major Asset Classes | Sep 2014 | Performance Review
September was a complete rout. All the major asset classes suffered losses last month—the first calendar month of across-the-board red ink since June 2013.
ISM Manufacturing Index: September 2014 Preview
The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to decline slightly to 58.1 in tomorrow’s update for September vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast.
ADP Employment Report: September 2014 Preview
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to rise 204,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s September update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The expected monthly gain matches August’s increase.
Pondering The Slide In US Inflation Expectations
The Treasury market’s inflation forecast via 10-year Notes continues to fall and the US stock market has turned wobbly too.
Managing Manager Risk
PIMCO’s star manager, Bill Gross, is moving on to Janus. By some accounts, the Janus brand will be rejuvenated with the arrival of the “bond king,” a moniker earned over a long run of outsized returns in plying the waters of fixed income.
Personal Consumption Expenditures: Aug 2014 Preview
Tomorrow’s update on US personal consumption spending for August is projected to rise 0.4% vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast.
A Conundrum With Inflation Expectations
The US economy grew faster than previously estimated in the second quarter, Looking backward delivers another inspirational session for the bulls in the land of macro today.
Reality = Normal + Fat-Tail Distributions
The real-world challenges of dealing with fat tails—the higher frequency of extreme returns than a normal distribution implies—have received a lot of attention since the market crashed in 2008, and rightly so.
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