James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 3
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more

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Downsizing Market Stress
The Republican brand is up this morning and Mr. Market’s stress level is down. Is there a connection? Probably not, but for the moment the pairing is conspicuous.
ADP Employment Report: October 2014 Preview
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase 212,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s October update of the ADP Employment Report.
Risk Premia Forecasts | 4 November 2014
The projected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) inched lower again in October vs. the previous month. GMI, an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes, is currently expected to earn an annualized 4.0% over the “risk-free” rate for the long term.
Major Asset Classes | Oct 2014 | Performance Review
October was an unusually volatile month for most of the world’s markets relative to recent history, but when the dust cleared there were several winners.
ISM Manufacturing Index: October 2014 Preview
Monday's update of this benchmark of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector is expected to remain firmly in growth territory.
US Consumption Declined In September
Economists were looking for a 0.3% rise in the headline income number, but the actual data showed a lesser 0.2% increase last month.
Another Round Of Upbeat US Macro Reports
The US economy grew faster than expected in this year’s third quarter, according to this morning’s “advance” GDP estimate for the July-through-September period.
Personal Consumption Expenditures: September 2014 Preview
Tomorrow’s update on US personal consumption spending for September is projected to rise 0.3% vs. the previous month.
Is The Latest VIX Decline A Trick Or Treat?
It’s nearly Halloween, but the frightening rise in US stock market volatility earlier this month is looking less creepy at the moment.
REIT Yields In A Low-Rate Environment
If you’re pondering the allure of real estate investment trusts (REITs) these days, consider two attributes of late: strong performance vs. the US stock market and relatively high yields over Treasuries.
Will Falling Inflation Expectations Influence Fed Policy?
The Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast—10-year Treasury yield less its inflation-indexed counterpart—remained in the low-2% range, or just slightly above the Fed’s target.
Q3:2014 US GDP Nowcast: +2.6%
The US economy is on track to expand at a substantially slower pace in the third quarter vs. Q2.
Monitoring Bear Market Risk
The recent surge in US stock market volatility has rattled nerves and inspired some analysts to announce that a new bear market has arrived.
We Don't Have One Problem--We Have Three Interlocking Sets Of Problems
The additional sets of problems added as "solutions" only guarantee that the third and final crash of asset bubbles just ahead will be far more devastating than the crashes of 2000 and 2009.
Book Bits - 25 October 2014
James Picerno shares a bit about the latest books on his must read list.
US Equity Sectors Review | 24 Oct 2014
Measured by one-total performance, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) is up nearly 24% through yesterday’s close (Oct. 23).
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