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Sober Look

Blogger at SoberLook.com
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Sober Look is a no-hype financial blog that typically relies on data analysis and primary sources. Posts are intended to be succinct, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be ...more
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The Fed Concerned About "Importing" Disinflation
Sunday, November 23, 2014 6:13 AM EDT
The latest Reuters poll is showing 24 out of 43 economists projecting the first rate hike in the U.S. by June of next year, but the international situation has made the Fed's policy planning much more complex.
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Hidden Story In US PPI Increase
Wednesday, November 19, 2014 9:08 PM EDT
Improved pricing power for US firms? Hardly.
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Japan's QE-Driven Inequality Will Continue To Grow
Wednesday, November 12, 2014 2:51 AM EDT
The yen continued to sell off as a result of this accelerated easing and is now hovering around a 7-year low.
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Everything You Wanted To Know About The ECB's Latest Monetary Policy (but Were Afraid To Ask)
Monday, November 10, 2014 8:30 AM EDT
Once again, a great deal of confusion surrounds the European Central Bank's current policy objectives as well as the nearterm action expectations. Let's try to tackle the subject in a Q&A format.
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China's Exports Spike But Data Unreliable
Saturday, November 8, 2014 4:21 PM EDT
It is likely that some exporters were placing FX bets disguised as export proceeds.
In this article: AYT, CYB
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Deconstructing The Velocity Of Money
Tuesday, November 4, 2014 2:52 AM EDT
The velocity of money is the ratio of quarterly nominal GDP to the quarterly average of money stock. It's one of the measures used to assess how quickly money in circulation is used for purchasing goods and services.
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Mortgage Bond Issuance The Lowest Since 2000
Monday, November 3, 2014 4:54 AM EDT
The availability of residential mortgage bonds in the United States has been shrinking. Private mortgage securitization markets are nonexistent since the financial crisis and the GSEs are not generating enough new supply.
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The Fed To Release $600B Of Treasuries Into The Reverse Repo Market At Year-End
Sunday, November 2, 2014 4:16 PM EDT
Staying with the theme of the Federal Reserve's experimentation with new policy tools, the central bank is expected to introduce a term (vs. overnight) reverse repo program.
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The Fed's Term Deposit Facility Comes Of Age
Friday, October 31, 2014 9:48 PM EDT
The primary goal of the program is to give the Fed another tool to control short term rates.
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Lower Crude Oil Price In The US Does Not Imply Oversupply
Thursday, October 30, 2014 5:10 PM EDT
Social media has been circulating this chart on US crude oil, that seems to indicate that the US is sitting on excessive inventories. That's simply not true. In fact US crude oil availability in storage, as measured in days of supply, is tighter than it was last year.
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Distinguishing The Fed's Securities Purchases From Monetary Expansion
Thursday, October 30, 2014 4:36 AM EDT
There has been a bit of confusion about what today's FOMC announcement means with respect to Quantitative Easing.
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The Saudis Have The Staying Power To Undercut The Competition
Monday, October 27, 2014 9:30 AM EDT
Saudi government can sustain itself for almost 8 years with Brent crude at $83/bbl.
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The "Save Our Swiss Gold" Initiative Is Incompatible With The EUR/CHF Peg
Sunday, October 26, 2014 8:18 AM EDT
The Swiss just might force their central bank to begin accumulating massive amounts of gold via the so-called "Save our Swiss gold" referendum. This is every gold bull's dream...
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Gap Between Wages And Rents Continues To Grow
Friday, October 24, 2014 8:54 AM EDT
The gap in growth rates of rental costs vs. wages continues to widen.
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Last Week's Volatility And The Economy
Tuesday, October 21, 2014 2:20 PM EDT
As expected, households actually paid attention to last week's market volatility and the Ebola fears.
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No Hard Landing For China's Economy For Now
Tuesday, October 21, 2014 6:18 AM EDT
China's GDP growth is gradually slowing as expected - at least according to the official reports.
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