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Acting-Man

Independent Analyst
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Pater Tenebrarum is an independent analyst and economist/social theorist. He has been involved with financial markets in various capacities for 31 years and currently writes economic and market analyses for independent research organizations and a European hedge fund consultancy as well as being ...more
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33 to 48 of 312 Posts
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Macau – A Canary In China’s Coal Mine?
Wednesday, November 5, 2014 8:01 AM EDT
Macau has benefited disproportionately from two major trends: the rise of a class of very rich people in China (as well as a growing middle class), and the need of corrupt bureaucrats to launder their money, i.e. get it out of China.
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US Midterm Election Goes As Expected
Wednesday, November 5, 2014 6:38 AM EDT
The Obama Effect strikes, Republican party wins big.
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SPX, European Stocks And Junk Bonds Continue To Diverge
Tuesday, November 4, 2014 6:21 AM EDT
The S&P 500 has recently made a new high, in short the rebound from the mid October low has not failed at a lower high. Therefore, the clock has so to speak been reset.
In this article: IEF, JNK, SPX
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Understanding Volatility
Monday, November 3, 2014 12:36 PM EDT
A new report explains how volatility data can be used to measure the degree of “herding” in the market and how this information can be employed in making forecasts about major turning points in the stock market.
In this article: VIX
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An “Anti-Bubble” Blow-Off In The Gold Sector
Monday, November 3, 2014 9:25 AM EDT
Last week the gold market was ambushed twice in close succession – first by the Fed’s “everything is fine” statement (no-one can have been surprised by the well-telegraphed temporary end of “QE”) and then by the BoJ’s surprise assault on the yen.
In this article: ABX, AU, GG, NEM, CEF, GTU, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, SPX, HUI
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The Experiment That Will Blow Up The World
Friday, October 31, 2014 3:25 PM EDT
Today’s decision to expand Japan’s monetary stimulus may be regarded as shock treatment in the central bank’s effort to affect confidence levels.
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The FOMC Decision – A Mouthful Of Reassurances In Every Conceivable Direction
Thursday, October 30, 2014 6:15 PM EDT
Inflation expectations have indeed been trending downward – this is to say, expectations regarding the future rate of change of CPI
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Short Bets On Japanese Stocks Surge
Wednesday, October 29, 2014 11:48 AM EDT
We have been a bit surprised to learn that short bets on Japanese stocks have recently surged significantly. Evidently, Japanese investors are well-trained by now: they don’t expect rallies in Japan’s stock market to hold or continue.
In this article: SPX
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IMF Clarifies Rules In Rounding Error Competition
Wednesday, October 29, 2014 8:43 AM EDT
No negative rates for the putative Bancor … Keynes must surely be rotating in his grave.
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Do Howls From Rome Prove Anything?
Tuesday, October 28, 2014 6:48 PM EDT
Italy’s banks were among the hardest hit by the ECB’s “comprehensive assessment” and the associated demands to increase their capital.
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The ECB’s Hope Test
Monday, October 27, 2014 3:25 PM EDT
We noted on the eve of the publication of the ECB’s “comprehensive assessment” of European banks that the central bank’s review would likely be more stringent than the EBA’s stress tests during the euro area crisis, because the central bank will become their supervisor.
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Stress Test Angst - ECB’s Comprehensive Bank Assessment Finalized
Saturday, October 25, 2014 11:15 AM EDT
The banks themselves have already received the results of the ECB’s assessment yesterday, but they will only be made public on Sunday – apparently the intention is to avoid roiling the markets.
In this article: IKBDF
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Discussion Of Market And Economic Trends By Incrementum’s Advisory Board
Friday, October 24, 2014 10:12 AM EDT
Incrementum’s proprietary inflation/deflation indicator has been extremely volatile so far in 2014, moving from negative to positive territory and vice versa several times.
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Barron’s Big Money Poll: More Of The Same
Wednesday, October 22, 2014 2:09 PM EDT
So what are the big money’s big ideas this time around? They continue exhibit a huge bearish consensus on bonds, which we have in the past flagged as a big contrary indicator .
In this article: GLD
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Theories Only A Mother Could Love
Wednesday, October 22, 2014 9:21 AM EDT
The European Central Bank has started to buy covered bonds, in its latest attempt to to revive lending in the euro zone and stave off a vicious bout of economic stagnation
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How Far Will The Stock Market Rebound Go?
Monday, October 20, 2014 9:55 AM EDT
We can actually not answer the question posed above with certainty. We don’t know for sure whether the recent market decline was a “warning shot” or merely a short term shake-out. In this we are in good company: the whole world doesn’t know.
In this article: NDX, SPX
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