September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.16%) this morning are up +0.19% on optimism that Q2 company earnings results will remain strong, while European stocks are down -0.17% after German investor confidence dropped for an eighth month.

Energy is in a boom, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that oil is booming, at least in terms of price. There are several factors that lead me to conclude that, while NYMEX crude is unlikely to collapse, upward momentum will be hard to come by over the next couple of years.