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Acting-Man

Independent Analyst
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Pater Tenebrarum is an independent analyst and economist/social theorist. He has been involved with financial markets in various capacities for 31 years and currently writes economic and market analyses for independent research organizations and a European hedge fund consultancy as well as being ...more
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Yuan And H-Shares Keep Falling
Thursday, March 20, 2014 10:30 AM EDT
Apparently China's government appears to be slightly alarmed at the recent slew of negative headlines and data releases and fears that its 'growth target' may not be met this year.
In this article: 600550.SS, BYDDF
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The March FOMC Decision
Thursday, March 20, 2014 8:25 AM EDT
As always, Kremlinologists can check the WSJ's trusty FOMC statement tracker to see what has actually changed. Ever since the first 'taper' announcement in December, the statement has become a lot more convoluted.
In this article: GLD, SPX
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Russia-EU Trade Infographics
Wednesday, March 19, 2014 12:41 PM EDT
RT and Der Spiegel have recently published a few infographics on trade between the EU and Russia, respectively Germany and Russia, which we reproduce below. This shows why tit-for-tat sanctions could be a really big problem for Europe and why the EU's leaders are probably quietly praying for the crisis to simply go away.
In this article: MEO.F, EOAN.DE, HEN3.DE, VOW.DE, SI, AZSEY
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Gold Loses ‘Ukraine Premium’
Wednesday, March 19, 2014 10:56 AM EDT
As we always stress, it is generally not a good idea to buy gold on geopolitical news. Unless geopolitical developments lead to more government spending and more monetary inflation to fund it, they should not influence the gold price in the medium to long run. In fact, such rallies are per experience always given back
In this article: GLD
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Italy: Good News, But Still Way Too Much Debt
Wednesday, March 19, 2014 9:00 AM EDT
Italy's new prime minister Matteo Renzi is reversing some of the worst aspects of the legacy of the Brussels-approved professional bureaucrat Mario Monti by proposing a package of tax cuts, which is mainly going to be financed by spending cuts.
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Russian Stocks Continue To Surge After Crimea Referendum
Wednesday, March 19, 2014 8:16 AM EDT
A big rally is currently underway in Russian stocks now that it seems certain that the Crimea is going to be absorbed into the Russian Federation. Many observers believe the rally won't hold, which is actually a bullish sign.
In this article: RSX
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Is China’s Credit Bubble Beginning To Unwind?
Wednesday, March 19, 2014 6:24 AM EDT
The bond default of solar company Chaori apparently was just the proverbial canary in the coal mine. As we pointed out last week, it struck us as rather troubling that analysts didn't seem to take the Chaori default very seriously. It is worth repeating a quote from a Financial Times article in this context:
In this article: 2345.TW, 002506.SZ, CYB
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Russian And Ukrainian Financial Markets
Monday, March 17, 2014 8:26 AM EDT
Below are the latest charts of the Ukrainian hryvnia, the Russian ruble, the stock markets of both countries and the default probabilities indicated by CDS spreads (standard recovery assumption of 40%).
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The Hoot Of The Week
Friday, March 14, 2014 12:09 PM EDT
This is really too funny. Apparently, the Ukraine owes $3 billion to Russia in bonds that have been issued under UK law. One of the stipulations of the bonds is that if the Ukraine's debt-to-GDP ratio should exceed 60%, the bonds will become immediately callable.
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US Stock Market – More Bubble Evidence
Friday, March 14, 2014 10:26 AM EDT
Below we show a few stock market related charts that indicate that the recent rebound may well have been part and parcel of at least some sort of corrective period, in spite of several indexes attaining new highs. Note here that we don't care why the market reportedly fell on Thursday.
In this article: SPX
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Gold Stocks Keep Confounding Skeptics
Friday, March 14, 2014 9:23 AM EDT
This is the second time this week we feel the urge to write about gold stocks, which may be a short term negative contrarian signal. However, we are quite pleased with the classical stair-step advance that has occurred in the sector so far this year.
In this article: CEF, GTU, RYPMX, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, SPX
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The State And The Cattle
Friday, March 14, 2014 6:32 AM EDT
The brazenness of the ruling class is usually quite something to behold.
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Anglo-Saxon Central Banking Socialism = ‘Free Lunch’
Friday, March 14, 2014 5:17 AM EDT
Sometimes a little knowledge can be dangerous. As Frederic Bastiat already pointed out a long time ago, it is the hallmark of a good economist to see what is not immediately obvious.
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Is It A Bubble Yet?
Wednesday, March 12, 2014 9:38 AM EDT
One of the best illustrations that we are in an unmitigated and absolutely frantic financial bubble is the recent rally in fuel cell stocks.
In this article: PLUG
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The Big Debt Binge
Wednesday, March 12, 2014 8:39 AM EDT
We had a global financial crisis in 2008 that was widely acknowledged to be the result of an unmitigated credit bubble egged on by loose central bank policy after the peak of the tech mania in 2000. Of course, central banks themselves did not acknowledge their responsibility.
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Gold And Gold Stocks – Technically Still Convincing
Tuesday, March 11, 2014 12:56 PM EDT
We recently came across the information that the DSI (daily sentiment index), a short term futures traders sentiment survey, clocked in at about 80% bulls. This is as high as at the interim peak in gold in late August 2013, so we want to caution that in the very short term, gold looks a bit stretched from a sentiment perspective.
In this article: GLD, SLV
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