James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 9
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more

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Personal Consumption Expenditures: June 2014 Preview
Tomorrow’s update on US personal consumption spending for June is expected to report a gain of 0.3% vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. That’s slightly higher than the reported 0.2% rise for May.
US Nonfarm Private Payrolls: July 2014 Preview
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase 232,000 in tomorrow’s July update from the Labor Department, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast.
Upbeat US Macro News On GDP & Jobs
“The July employment gain was softer than June, but remains consistent with a steadily improving job market,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, in the accompanying press release for today’s ADP release.
Are Lower Yields Signaling Higher Risk?
A funny thing happened on the way to higher interest rates: yields took a surprising turn lower. The 10-year Treasury yield yesterday dipped under 2.47%, near the lowest level since a swoon in late-May pushed this benchmark rate to an intraday low of roughly 2.40% at one point.
ADP Employment Report: July 2014 Preview
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase 271,000 (seasonally adjusted) in July over the previous month in tomorrow’s release of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast.
Q2:2014 US GDP Nowcast: +3.2% | 7.28.2014
The US economy is expected to post a substantial rebound in the government’s initial estimate of second-quarter GDP that’s scheduled for release on Wednesday, according to the Capital Spectator’s median econometric nowcast.
Housing: The New Risk Factor
Housing remains a weak spot for the US economy, as suggested in yesterday’s news of a surprisingly large decline in new home sales for June.
Jobless Claims Drop To 8-Year Low
s it a game-changer? A tipping point? A moment when the economy finally turned a corner for the better in a meaningful way? Possibly.
The Great Deceleration In The Monetary Base
The Federal Reserve’s tapering is underway. The central bank’s quantitative easing (QE) program that generated record levels of monetary liquidity in recent years is on track to fade into history by the end of the year. T
The Case For Higher Rates Looks Weak… Again
Some analysts are again projecting that the age of higher interest rates has finally arrived. The Fed is tapering and the US economy is expanding moderately, despite a first-quarter setback.
Chicago Fed: A Modest Deceleration For US Growth In June
US economic growth slowed in June, according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. The benchmark’s three-month average (CFNAI-MA3) fell to +0.13 last month from an upwardly revised +0.28 for May. Today’s update was in line with The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast.
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: June 2014 Preview
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decline to +0.10 in tomorrow’s update for June, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast.
US Economic Profile
There’s still plenty to worry about when it comes to macro analysis, but conspicuous signs of trouble are still the exception for the broad trend. The June update of a diversified set of 14 economic and financial indicators continues to reflect growth.
Is The Soft Housing Starts Data For June A Warning Or A Sign Of A Maturing Recovery?
Housing starts were surprisingly weak in June, the Census Bureau reports. The consensus forecast was looking for a modest gain to a 1.026 million annualized rate. Instead, the actual number dipped to 893,000—the lowest since last September.
Industrial Output Growth Slows In June
Industrial production increased 0.2% in June, the Federal Reserve reports. The rise is moderately below expectations, although the good news is that industrial output is still expanding at a decent pace on a year-over-year basis...
US Housing Starts: June 2014 Preview
Housing starts are expected to total 1.017 million in tomorrow’s update for June, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The projection represents a modest increase vs. the previously reported 1.001 million for May.
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