James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 7

James Picerno

Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more
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A Surprisingly Weak Payrolls Report For August
Friday, September 5, 2014 12:53 PM EDT
Private payrolls increased 134,000 last month, far below the consensus forecast that anticipated a gain of 220,000, according to Econoday.com’s estimate.
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Is Growth Destined To Slow?
Friday, September 5, 2014 10:23 AM EDT
Gordon writes in his new piece that “if the projections in this paper are close to the mark, the level of potential GDP in 2024 will be almost 10 percent below the CBO’s current forecast.”
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US Nonfarm Private Payrolls: August 2014 Preview
Thursday, September 4, 2014 1:37 PM EDT
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase 230,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s August update from the Labor Department, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast.
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A Macro Tailwind For Stocks
Thursday, September 4, 2014 10:37 AM EDT
There’s a growing chorus of warnings from the punditocracy that the US stock market is at risk of correcting. It’s easy to understand what’s motivating the advice: a powerful bull market that’s been pushing higher for five years with few sustained declines of late.
In this article: SPX
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ADP: August Payrolls Rise 200k-plus For Fifth Straight Month
Thursday, September 4, 2014 9:54 AM EDT
Today’s data updates on the labor market continue to inspire confidence that the US economy will expand at a moderate pace in the foreseeable future.
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Risk Premia Forecasts
Wednesday, September 3, 2014 11:58 AM EDT
The August update shows a moderate increase in the long-run expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI), an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of all the major asset classes.
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ADP Employment Report: August 2014 Preview
Wednesday, September 3, 2014 7:52 AM EDT
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to rise 223,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s August update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The expected gain is slightly higher than the previously reported increase for July.
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Major Asset Classes | August 2014 | Performance Review
Tuesday, September 2, 2014 4:55 AM EDT
Most markets around the globe bounced back in August after July’s drubbing. Although there’s still plenty of risk percolating around the world, there were few signs that investors were becoming cautious last month.
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ISM Manufacturing Index: August 2014 Preview
Monday, September 1, 2014 7:34 AM EDT
The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to decline slightly to 56.8 in tomorrow’s update for August vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast.
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Personal Consumption Expenditures: July 2014 Preview
Thursday, August 28, 2014 9:02 PM EDT
Tomorrow’s update on US personal consumption spending for July is expected to show a rise of 0.3% vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. That’s a slight deceleration in growth vs. June’s 0.4% increase.
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Active Managers & Asset Allocation
Thursday, August 28, 2014 6:11 AM EDT
Morningstar got a lot of pushback from readers in the wake of John Rekenthaler’s recent essay that asked a loaded question: “Do Active Funds Have a Future?” His short answer: “Apparently not much.” Unsurprisingly, advocates of active management responded with gales of criticism. Here's my take...
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Is The US Stock Market Rally Built On Solid Ground?
Tuesday, August 26, 2014 9:07 AM EDT
The S&P 500 briefly traded above 2000 yesterday for the first time. The all-time high inspired some analysts to announce (not necessarily for the first time) that the stock market was in bubble territory.
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Q3:2014 US GDP Nowcast: +2.5% | 25 August 2014
Monday, August 25, 2014 8:30 AM EDT
The surprisingly strong rebound in second-quarter GDP growth will suffer a substantial bout of deceleration in the third quarter, according to the Capital Spectator’s median econometric nowcast.
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Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: July 2014 Preview
Friday, August 22, 2014 11:49 AM EDT
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decline slightly +0.09 in Monday’s update for July, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast.
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Strange Bedfellows: A Stronger Economy & Lower Yields
Friday, August 22, 2014 10:03 AM EDT
This week’s upbeat data on housing has inspired a new round of charges that the Federal Reserve “is clearly behind the curve.” Economist Scott Grannisproclaims: “Great news: the Fed is likely to raise rates sooner rather than later.”
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Jobless Claims Still Trending Lower
Thursday, August 21, 2014 9:59 AM EDT
Today’s weekly update on new unemployment filings is a fresh reminder that it’s hard to be a pessimist on the US labor market these days. Jobless claims fell a healthy 14,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 298,000—close to last month’s post-recession low of 279,000.
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