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Sober Look

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Sober Look is a no-hype financial blog that typically relies on data analysis and primary sources. Posts are intended to be succinct, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be ...more
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Update On Crude Oil Markets
Tuesday, October 21, 2014 3:19 AM EDT
Crude prices came under pressure again today. According to Reuters (from last week), the Saudis “will accept oil prices below $90 per barrel, and perhaps down to $80, for as long as a year or two”.
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The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Of Falling Energy Prices
Sunday, October 19, 2014 2:01 PM EDT
The recent correction in the price of crude oil should have an immediate positive impact on the US consumer and many business sectors. However there also may be an economic downside to this adjustment.
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Big Move For Vol Of Vol
Saturday, October 18, 2014 3:24 PM EDT
The possibility of VIX doubling or even tripling ("tail" risk) does not seem outside the realm of possibility these days.
In this article: VXX, VIX
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Implied Vol Dislocation
Thursday, October 16, 2014 5:03 AM EDT
The recent spike in volatility has created a "dislocation" in US equity options markets. VIX, which is a measure of implied volatility for large cap shares is now higher than RVX - the small-cap equivalent.
In this article: VIX
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Convergence
Thursday, October 16, 2014 3:27 AM EDT
The ECB can continue to argue that economic conditions in the Eurozone are nothing like those in Japan. The markets say otherwise ...
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Disinflation Spreads To The UK
Wednesday, October 15, 2014 4:30 AM EDT
Italian consumer inflation remains in the negative territory, as the nation's economy struggles to grow. But Italy is not unique - the rest of the world is catching the Eurozone's disinflationary flu.
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Ruble For Sale
Tuesday, October 14, 2014 4:30 AM EDT
Currencies of most emerging economies rallied against the dollar today, as expectations for the first rate hike in the US shift out to a year from now. There was one major exception - the Russian ruble.
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The Fed On Hold For A Year, According To The Futures Market
Monday, October 13, 2014 7:19 PM EDT
Futures markets have shifted expectations for the Fed's liftoff further out in time.
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The Bank Of Japan May Put Further Easing On Hold
Monday, October 13, 2014 6:54 AM EDT
Expectations of Bank of Japan accelerating securities purchases at the October meeting have fallen considerably.
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China's Local Government Debt Binge Curtailed
Sunday, October 12, 2014 2:36 AM EDT
But over the past three years, growth in China's property markets has cooled. Now what?
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The FOMC Takes Dollar Strength Into Account; Liftoff Expectations Shift To A Year From Now
Thursday, October 9, 2014 5:00 AM EDT
FOMC minutes conveyed the concerns about the rising US dollar and risks of further dollar appreciation due to economic weakness across major economies.
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Labor Supply/Demand Imbalance In The United States
Wednesday, October 8, 2014 5:03 AM EDT
The number of US job openings is now running materially above the pre-recession levels.
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Volatility Returning To Currency Markets
Tuesday, October 7, 2014 4:25 AM EDT
Monday the dollar gave up much of its Friday's gains that were driven by stronger than expected US employment situation report. We haven't seen such volatility in currency markets in some time. What happened?
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Dollar Strength And Inflation Expectations
Monday, October 6, 2014 5:04 AM EDT
The ongoing strengthening of the US dollar could shift the FOMC further into dovish territory. While the labor situation continues to improve, the dollar's recent appreciation has contributed to declines in inflation expectations to multi-year lows.
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How Close Are The US Labor Markets To Normalization?
Sunday, October 5, 2014 6:12 AM EDT
Many are asking just how far the employment situation is from "normalizing." The answer depends on the metrics used.
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Banks' LCR-Based Demand For Treasuries Moderates
Monday, September 29, 2014 12:05 PM EDT
One of the factors contributing to treasury market's strong performance this year has been the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR), a Basel III-based requirement for banks.
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